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What does the lag of CO₂ behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming? Quelle information sur le réchauffement climatique nous apportent les études qui concluent à un retard du CO₂ sur la température, réalisées à partir des carottes de glace?

3 Dec 2004 by group

This is an issue that is often misunderstood in the public sphere and media, so it is worth spending some time to explain it and clarify it. At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO₂ starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.

Does this prove that CO₂ doesn’t cause global warming? The answer is no.
Par Jeff Severinghaus (traduit par Nicolas Caillon)

Les résultats de ces études ne sont pas toujours bien compris par le public, souvent mal restitués par les médias, et méritent donc davantage d’explications. Au moins 3 études détaillées réalisées à partir de carottes de glace montrent que le CO₂ commence à augmenter autour de 800 ans (entre 600 à 1000 ans) après le démarrage de l’augmentation de température lors des terminaisons glaciaires. Ces terminaisons sont les périodes de réchauffement qui marquent la fin des périodes glaciaires et qui se produisent tous les 100 000 ans.
[Read more…] about What does the lag of CO₂ behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming? Quelle information sur le réchauffement climatique nous apportent les études qui concluent à un retard du CO₂ sur la température, réalisées à partir des carottes de glace?

Michaels misquotes Hansen

2 Dec 2004 by Gavin

Pat Michaels (under the guise of the Greening Earth society) is particularly fond of misquoting Jim Hansen, director of the NASA GISS laboratory (and in the interests of full disclosure, GS’s boss).

Recently he claimed that Dr. Hansen has now come around to the ‘skeptics’ (i.e. Pat Michaels) way of thinking and suggests that they agree on the (small) amount of warming to be expected in the future. Michaels quotes Hansen from a 2001 PNAS paper:

Climate model scenarios Les scénarios des modèles climatiques

1 Dec 2004 by Gavin

A couple of commentators (Pat Michaels, Roy Spencer) recently raised an issue about the standard scenarios used to compare climate models, in this case related to a study on the potential increase in hurricane activity.

The biggest uncertainty in what will happen to climate in the future (say 30 years or more) is the course that the global economy will take and the changes in technology that may accompany that. Since climate scientists certainly don’t have a crystal ball, we generally take a range of scenarios or projections of future emissions of CO₂ and other important forcings such as methane and aerosols.
Quelques commentateurs (Pat Michaels, Roy Spencer) ont récemment relancé une question au sujet des scénarios standard utilisés pour comparer les modèles climatiques, dans ce cas relié à une étude sur l’augmentation potentielle de l’activité des ouragans.
La plus grande incertitude dans ce qui va se passer pour le climat du futur (dans 30 ans ou plus) est le cours que va suivre l’économie globale et les changements technologiques qui peuvent l’accompagner. Puisque les climatologues n’ont certainement pas une boule de cristal, nous considérons généralement une gamme de scénarios ou de projections des émissions futures de CO₂ et d’autres forçages importants comme le méthane et les aérosols.

1 Dec 2004 by group

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/search-results/

About A propos

1 Dec 2004 by group

RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists and has been operating since Dec 2004. We aim to provide the context sometimes missing in mainstream commentary on climate science. The discussion here is mostly restricted to scientific topics though we maintain open threads for the political or economic implications of the science and for discussions of possible solutions. All posts are signed by the author(s), except ‘group’ posts which are collective efforts from the whole team. Please note this is a moderated forum.

RealClimate est un site de discussion sur les sciences du climat pour le public et les journalistes depuis decembre 2004, site animé par des scientifiques actifs dans ce domaine. Notre objectif est de fournir le contexte scientifique souvent absent dans les médias. Les discussions sur ce site sont pour la plupart limitées aux sujets scientifiques, et n’aborderont pas les implications politiques ou économiques de la science. Toutes les discussions sont signeés, sauf les discussions signeés par ‘group’ qui sont un effort collectif.

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We use WordPress blogging software and are hosted at Openstack.com. Current site design is by Oliver Mösing.

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Index

1 Dec 2004 by group

In addition to the category indexing on the side bar, we have set out a more thematic index here to help you find your way through the content on the site. [Note: this was kept up-to-date through about 2008. For more recent articles, please use the search function.]

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present-day observations, Oceans, Paleo-climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

If you are looking for introductions to the whole topic, start here.

Aerosols:

“Global Dimming? Assombrissement global?“
“Global Dimming II Assombrissement Global II“
“Pollution-Climate Connections Liens entre Pollution et Climat“
“Global Dimming may have a brighter future Un avenir brillant pour l’assombrissement global ?“
“Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings“
“An Aerosol Tour de Forcing“
“Global Dimming and climate models“
“Current volcanic activity and climate?“
“Aerosols: The Last Frontier? Aerossóis: A Última Fronteira?“
“Ozone impacts on climate change“
“Perspectives from China“
“Global dimming and global warming“
“Aerosols, Chemistry and Climate“

Arctic and Antarctic climate:

Atmospheric Science:

“Water vapour: feedback or forcing?“
“Et Tu LT?“
“The tropical lapse rate quandary“
“Busy Week for Water Vapor“
“More satellite stuff“
“Naturally trendy?“
“Cloudy outlook for albedo?“
“On a Weakening of the Walker Circulation“
“The sky IS falling Le ciel nous tombe vraiment sur la tête“
“On Mid-latitude Storms“
“Uncertainty in polar ozone depletion?“
“Tropical tropospheric trends“
“Butterflies, tornadoes and climate modelling“
“Tropical tropospheric trends again“
“Tropical tropospheric trends again (again) Ancora i trends troposferici tropicali (ancora)“
“Ozone holes and cosmic rays“

Climate modelling:

Climate sensitivity:

“11ºC warming, climate crisis in 10 years? 11ºC de réchauffement, une crise climatique dans 10 ans ?“
“Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings“
“Natural Variability and Climate Sensitivity“
“Richard Lindzen’s HoL testimony“
“Climate sensitivity: Plus ça change…“
“Runaway tipping points of no return“
“Climate Feedbacks“
“The CO₂ problem in 6 easy steps“
“Climate Insensitivity“
“The certainty of uncertainty“
“Target CO₂ Objectivo CO₂“
“Simple Question, Simple Answer… Not Les question simples n’appellent pas toujours des réponses simples“

Extreme events:

Global warming:

Greenhouse gases:

Mitigation of Climate Change:

Oceans:

Paleo-climate:

Present-day observations:

“Et Tu LT?“
“The tropical lapse rate quandary“
“Gulf Stream slowdown? Est-ce que le Gulf Stream ralentit ?“
“What is a first-order climate forcing?“
“The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island“
“Groundhog Day“
“Cloudy outlook for albedo?“
“More on the Arctic“
“Historical climatology in Greenland“
“Has Pacific Northwest snowpack declined? Yes.“
“Glacier Mass Balance: equilibrium or disequilibrium response?“
“No man is an (Urban Heat) Island“
“1934 and all that“
“Sweatin’ the Mediterranean Heat“
“Are Temperature Trends affected by Economic Activity (II)? ¿Están las tendencias de la temperatura del aire afectadas por la actividad económica?“
“A barrier to understanding?“
“Uncertainty, noise and the art of model-data comparison Incertidumbre, ruido y el arte de comparar datos y modelos“
“Model-data-comparison, Lesson 2“
“Global trends and ENSO Tendencias globales y ENSO“
“Mind the Gap! Attenzione alla differenza!“
“Mountains and molehills Mucho ruido y pocas nueces“
“2008 temperature summaries and spin“

Projections of future climate:

“Climate model scenarios Les scénarios des modèles climatiques“
“Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate“
“Lawson vs. the IPCC“
“Can 2°C warming be avoided? Un réchauffement de 2°C peut-il être évité?“
“James Lovelock’s Gloomy Vision“
“Kristof on the Apocalypse“
“Stern Science La science de SternA ciência de Stern“
“Hansen’s 1988 projections“
“Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast“
“Regional Climate Projections“
“The Forecast in the Streets“
““Hell train station”“

Responses to common contrarian arguments:

Scientific Practice:

Solar forcing:

Climate in the Media:

“The False Objectivity of “Balance”“
“Getting the balance right…“
“Al Gore’s movie Le film de Al Gore“
“Disinformation? You want it, IREA’s got it“
“Peter Doran and how misleading talking points propagate“
“The missing repertoire“
“Sachs’ WSJ Challenge“
“Consensus as the New Heresy“
“The Human Hand in Climate Change“
“WSJ Editorial Board: Head Still Buried in the Sand“
“Climate Reporting in Physics World Reportagem sobre o Clima na Physics World“
“Broad Irony“
“A Tale of Three Interviews“
“Cockburn’s form“
“Global Warming Delusions at the Wall Street Journal“
“A phenomenological sequel“
“Find the error“
“A day when Hell was frozen“
“Wired Magazine’s Incoherent Truths“
“More PR related confusion“
“Journalistic whiplash“
“Palin on Global Warming“
“Why don’t op-eds get fact checked?“

Meeting Reports:

Miscellaneous:

“Welcome to RealClimate Bienvenue à RealClimate“
“A disclaimer Mise au point“
“RealClimate In the News“
“Doubts about the Advent of Spring“
“Scientists respond to Barton“
“Framing of climate science“
“Books books books“
“One year on…“
“Hansen in the New York Times“
“Those pesky scientific facts…“
“Meteors, Nuclear Tests and Global Warming“
“Pielke père et fils in Nature“
“Washington Post Cartoon“
“IPCC draft: No comment.“
“MY Review of Books“
“Introducing RC forum“
“It’s different in Europe“
“The Copenhagen Consensus“
“New public opinion poll on global warming“
“New Google search function“
“2006 Year in review Revue de l’année 2006“
“Calling All Science Teachers“
“Save the World! Earn $25 million! Dünya’yı Kurtar! 25 Milyon Dolar Kazan!Sauvez la planète ! Gagnez 25 millions de dollars !“
“Global Warming debate Küresel Isınma Müzakeresi“
“Adventures on the East Side Doğu Yakasında Maceralar“
“The Sheep Albedo Feedback“
“Fun with correlations! Korelasyonlarla eğlenelim!“
“A bit of philosophy“
“G8 summit declaration“
“Convenient Untruths Bekväma osanningar Mentiras Convenientes “
“The “Have you stopped beating your wife yet (yes/no)” questionnaire“
“Sustainability: A Nobel Cause“
“Did we call it or what“
“Books ’07“
“Our Books“
“Comprehensive climate glossary“
“Books ’08“
“2008 Year in review“

Antarctic Oscillation (“AAO”) Oscillation Antarctique

28 Nov 2004 by group

Measure of the pressure gradient between the polar and subpolar regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Term was introduced by Thompson and Wallace (2000). More information on the AAO can be found here. See also Arctic Oscillation (“AO”).

Mesure du gradient de pression entre les régions pôlaires et sub-pôlaires de l’Hémisphère Sud. Ce terme a été employé pour la première fois par Thompson et Wallace (2000). Plus d’informations sur l’Oscillation Antarctique peuvent être trouvées ici. Voir également Oscillation Arctique.

Anthropogenic Forcing Forçage Anthropogénique

28 Nov 2004 by group

Forcing due to human, rather than natural, factors. Such factors include increased greenhouse gas concentrations associated with fossil fuel burning, sulphate aerosols produced as an industrial by-product, human-induced changes in land surface properties among other things.

Forçage dû à l’action humaine, par opposition aux facteurs naturels. Les facteurs d’origine humaine incluent (entre autres) l’augmentation de la concentration en gaz à effet de serre associés à la combustion de carbone fossile, les aérosols sulfatés issus de l’industrie, et les changements des propriétés de la couverture terrestre liés à l’action humaine.

Arctic Oscillation (“AO”) Oscillation Arctique

28 Nov 2004 by group

Measure of the pressure gradient between the polar and subpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The term was introduced by Thompson and Wallace (2000). More information on the AO can be found here. See also North Atlantic Oscillation”(NAO”).

Mesure du gradient de pression entre les régions pôlaires et sub-pôlaires de l’Hémisphère Nord. Ce terme a été employé pour la première fois par Thompson et Wallace (2000). Plus d’informations peuvent être trouvées ici. Voir également : Oscillation Nord Atlantique.

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Archives by Month:

Archives by Category:

Aerosols:

Arctic and Antarctic climate:

Atmospheric Science:

Climate modelling:

Climate sensitivity:

Extreme events:

Global warming:

Greenhouse gases:

Mitigation of Climate Change:

Oceans:

Paleo-climate:

Present-day observations:

Projections of future climate:

Responses to common contrarian arguments:

Scientific Practice:

Solar forcing:

Climate in the Media:

Meeting Reports:

Miscellaneous:

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