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Climate Science

What is new in European climate research?

18 Sep 2016 by rasmus

The EMS 2016 Venue
The EMS 2016 Venue

What did I learn from the 2016 annual European Meteorological Society (EMS) conference that last week was hosted in Trieste (Italy)?

[Read more…] about What is new in European climate research?

Filed Under: Climate conference report, Climate Science, Communicating Climate, RC Forum, Reporting on climate

Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead

16 Sep 2016 by Gavin

I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El Niño and persistence – including a (by now unsurprising) prediction for a new record in 2016 and a slightly cooler, but still very warm, 2017.

[Read more…] about Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead

Filed Under: Climate Science, El Nino, Instrumental Record, statistics

An update on mid-latitude cyclones and climate change

6 Sep 2016 by rasmus

Why is it so hard to say what the future North European climate will look like? A recent review paper by Shaw et al, 2016 explains the reason in persuasive terms.

[Read more…] about An update on mid-latitude cyclones and climate change

References

  1. T.A. Shaw, M. Baldwin, E.A. Barnes, R. Caballero, C.I. Garfinkel, Y. Hwang, C. Li, P.A. O'Gorman, G. Rivière, I.R. Simpson, and A. Voigt, "Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change", Nature Geoscience, vol. 9, pp. 656-664, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2783

Filed Under: Climate Science

Unforced variations: Sep 2016

1 Sep 2016 by group

To come this month: Arctic sea ice minimum, decisions from the IPCC scoping meeting on a report focused on the 1.5ºC target, interesting paleo-climate science at #ICP12 and a chance to stop arguing about politics perhaps.

Usual rules apply.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Australian silliness and July temperature records

16 Aug 2016 by Gavin

Some of you that follow my twitter account will have already seen this, but there was a particularly amusing episode of Q&A on Australian TV that pitted Prof. Brian Cox against a newly-elected politician who is known for his somewhat fringe climate ‘contrarian’ views. The resulting exchanges were fun:
[Read more…] about Australian silliness and July temperature records

Filed Under: Climate Science, El Nino, Instrumental Record

Unforced variations: Aug 2016

1 Aug 2016 by group

Sorry for the low rate of posts this summer. Lots of offline life going on. ;-)

Meantime, this paper by Hourdin et al on climate model tuning is very interesting and harks back to the FAQ we did on climate models a few years ago (Part I, Part II). Maybe it’s worth doing an update?

Some of you might also have seen some of the discussion of record temperatures in the first half of 2016. The model-observation comparison including the estimates for 2016 are below:




It seems like the hiatus hiatus will continue…

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Unforced variations: July 2016

1 Jul 2016 by group

A week is a long time in politics climate science: Nonsense debunked in WaPo, begininngs of recovery in the ozone hole, revisiting the instrumental record constraints on climate sensitivity…

Lots of lessons there.

Usual rules apply.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Boomerangs versus Javelins: The Impact of Polarization on Climate Change Communication

7 Jun 2016 by mike

Guest commentary by Jack Zhou, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

For advocates of climate change action, communication on the issue has often meant “finding the right message” that will spur their audience to action and convince skeptics to change their minds. This is the notion that simply connecting climate change to the right issue domains or symbols will cut through the political gridlock on the issue. The difficulty then lies with finding these magic bullet messages, figuring out if they talk about climate change in the context of with national security or polar bears or passing down a clean environment to future generations.

On highly polarized issues like climate change, however, communicating across the aisle may be more difficult than simply finding the right message. Here, the worst case scenario is not simply a message failing to land and sending you back to the drawing board. Instead, any message that your audience disagrees with may polarize that audience even further in their skepticism, leaving you in a worse position than you began. As climate change has become an increasingly partisan issue in American politics, this means that convincing Republicans to reject the party line of climate skepticism may be easier said than done.
[Read more…] about Boomerangs versus Javelins: The Impact of Polarization on Climate Change Communication

Filed Under: Climate Science

Unforced Variations: June 2016

1 Jun 2016 by group

June already? Cripes…

Usual rules apply.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Do regional climate models add value compared to global models?

22 May 2016 by rasmus

2016-05-20 10.08.17

Global climate models (GCM) are designed to simulate earth’s climate over the entire planet, but they have a limitation when it comes to describing local details due to heavy computational demands. There is a nice TED talk by Gavin that explains how climate models work.

We need to apply downscaling to compute the local details. Downscaling may be done through empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) or regional climate models (RCMs) with a much finer grid. Both take the crude (low-resolution) solution provided by the GCMs and include finer topographical details (boundary conditions) to calculate more detailed information. However, does more details translate to a better representation of the world?

The question of “added value” was an important topic at the International Conference on Regional Climate conference hosted by CORDEX of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The take-home message was mixed on whether RCMs provide a better description of local climatic conditions than the coarser GCMs.

[Read more…] about Do regional climate models add value compared to global models?

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, downscaling, Reporting on climate, statistics

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