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Model-Obs Comparisons

Spencer’s Shenanigans: Part II

4 Apr 2026 by Gavin 44 Comments

We previously highlighted Roy Spencer’s poor practices in comparing models with observations, but we’ve now dug down a little deeper, and it’s not pretty.

[Read more…] about Spencer’s Shenanigans: Part II

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, skeptics Tagged With: CWG, Roy Spencer

How robust is our accelerometer?

8 Mar 2026 by group 99 Comments

Guest commentary from Nathan Lenssen (Colorado School of Mines)

A new analysis of historical temperatures suggests that things are getting warmer faster, but what does it mean for the future?

[Read more…] about How robust is our accelerometer?

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, statistics Tagged With: acceleration, CMIP6

Koonin’s Continuing Calumnies

7 Feb 2026 by Gavin

At a public event debating the DOE CWG report, Steve Koonin embarrasses himself further.

[Read more…] about Koonin’s Continuing Calumnies

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, skeptics Tagged With: CMIP6, CWG, DOE, Scafetta, Steve Koonin

2025 Updates

27 Jan 2026 by group

Our various graphics and model-observation comparisons have been updated with 2025 data. There are a few version updates that make some difference (particularly in sea ice extent), but the basic story is similar to last year. Feel free to comment and/or suggest changes for the future, including potential new comparisons.

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, MSU, SSU

DOE CWG Report “Moot”?

10 Sep 2025 by Gavin

Somewhat breaking news. A court filing (from 9/4) from DOE has noted that the Climate Working Group has been disbanded (as of 9/3). This was done to make the EDF/UCS lawsuit moot, but it also means that DOE is withdrawing the report, no-one will respond appropriately to the comments submitted, and (possibly) it becomes irrelevant for the EPA reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding.

What a farce.

Update: Via Andy Revkin, the EDF/UCS’s blistering response to the DOE filing. Pass the popcorn.

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice

Climate Scientists response to DOE report

2 Sep 2025 by Gavin

As we’ve mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW ‘CWG’ Critique of Climate Science. It is now out.

[Read more…] about Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Carbon cycle, Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Hurricanes, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice, Sea level rise, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CWG, DOE, Endangerment Finding

Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’

14 Aug 2025 by group

The first somewhat comprehensive reviews of the DOE critical review are now coming online.

[Read more…] about Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Communicating Climate, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, In the News, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Reporting on climate, skeptics Tagged With: climate change, DOE, Endangerment Finding, EPA

The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?

29 Jul 2025 by group

The EPA, along with the “Climate Working Group” (CWG) of usual suspects (plus Judith Curry and Ross McKitrick) at DOE, have just put out a document for public comment their attempt to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gas emissions.

[Read more…] about The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, In the News, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Reporting on climate Tagged With: DOE, Endangerment Finding, EPA

Melange à Trois

8 Jul 2025 by Gavin

In honor of the revelation today, that Koonin, Christy and Spencer have been made Special Government Employees at the Dept. of Energy, we present a quick round up of our commentary on the caliber of their arguments we’ve posted here over the last decade or so.

TL;DR? The arguments are not very good.

[Read more…] about Melange à Trois

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, In the News, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice Tagged With: John Christy, MSU, Roy Spencer, Steve Koonin

Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

31 May 2025 by Gavin

Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?

[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: Arctic amplification, CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6

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