Peter Doran, the lead author on a oft-cited, but less-often read, Nature study on Antarctic climate in 2002 had an Op-Ed in the NY Times today decrying the misuse of his team’s results in the on-going climate science ‘debate’. As we discussed a while back (Antarctic cooling, global warming?), there is a lot of interesting stuff going on in Antarctica: the complexities of different forcings (ozone in particular), the importance of dynamical as well as radiative processes, and the difficulties of dealing with very inhomogeneous and insufficiently long data series. But like so many results in this field, it has become a politicized ‘talking point’, shorn of its context, that is mis-quoted and mis-used by many who should (and often do) know better. Doran complained about the media coverage of his paper at the time, and with the passage of time, the distortion has predictably increased. Give it another few years, maybe we’ll be having congressional hearings about it…
Disinformation? You want it, IREA’s got it
RealClimate received a copy of a letter from the General Manager of the Intermountain Rural Electric Association (IREA, an energy cooperative in Colorado), Stanley R. Lewandowski (Jr), to other utilities (G&T’s in the jargon) in the US discussing fundraising and tactics for a new disinformation campaign on climate change (see Seth Borenstein’s piece yesterday).
This is enlightening on a number of levels. Firstly, though we knew that this stuff goes on, it’s rare that we get such a close look at how it happens. Secondly, who is to be the lead on this new campaign? None other than our old friend Patrick Michaels. Additionally, it is useful to see the reasons why some utilties are fighting against the idea of climate change set out more clearly than in their more carefully manicured press briefings. It might actually help people engage on the substance of their concerns rather than simply arguing about the science – which, as we are by now well aware, – is simply a path to gridlock.
We’ll highlight some of the best bits, and discuss what this all might imply below. [Read more…] about Disinformation? You want it, IREA’s got it
RealClimate In the News
The Guardian, Feb 25 2011, RealClimate faces libel suit
Salt Lake Tribune, Nov 27, 2010, Separating truth and fiction in climate debate (op-ed)
The Observer, Nov 14 2010, Climate Change Email Scandal
Vetenskapens Varld (Swedish Television), Nov 2010 Climategate – otextad
Providence Journal, 21 Jan 2010 Continued partly cloudy
Die Zeit, 8 Dec 2009 Skeptiker contra Alarmisten Klima Kampf im Netz
The Economist, 26 Nov 2009 Mail-strom
USA Today, 24 Nov 2009 Global warming cuts have a price
Der Speigel, 22 Nov 2009 Cyberkrieg unter Klimaforschern
New Yorker, 16 Nov 2009 Hosed
New York Times, 25 Oct 2009 Campaign Against Emissions Picks Number
New York Times, 23 Sep 2009 Momentum on Climate Pact Is Elusive
Z Magazine, Sep 2009 Toward Climate Justice
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 Jun 2009 How the carbon lobby blackens media coverage
Augusta Chronicle, 12 May 2009 Writer misunderstands global warming (letter to the editor)
GQ (UK), March 2009 Britain’s 100 Most Powerful Men
Fox News, 22 Jan 2009 Antarctica Getting Warmer After All
Boulder Weekly, 4 Dec 2008 Objectively wrong: How American journalism is forsaking truth for balance
USA Today, 1 Dec 2008 Stunning science books for holiday giving
Sydney Morning Herald, 8 Nov 2008 Truly inconvenient truths about climate change being ignored (see also letter in response)
Nature, 22 Oct 2008 Language: Disputed definitions
L.A. Times, 11 Oct 2008 Global Warming: The book
Columbia University “The Record”, 25 Aug 2008 Faculty Become Trusted Voice in Blogosphere.
Vancouver Courier (Canada), 22 Aug 2008 Global warming isn’t just hot air. (letter to editor)
New York Times, 29 Jul 2008 Climate Experts Tussle Over Details. Public Gets Whiplash.
Chester Daily (PA), 29 Jul 2008 Climate Experts Tussle Over Details. Public Gets Whiplash.
Crikey (Australia), 17 Jul 2008 Comments, corrections, clarifications, and c*ckups
The Bellevue Reporter (WA), 9 Jul 2008 Climate change truth and consequences (letter to editor)
The News and Observer (NC), 9 Jun 2008 The peril to come (letter to editor)
Der Spiegel (online), 14 May 2008 Forscher wetten 5000 Euro gegen pausierende Erderwärmung
Cumberland Times-News, 13 May 2008 Burning of coal and oil surely warming planet (letter to editor)
Le Monde, 12 May 2008 Des chercheurs parient 5 000 euros sur une pause dans le réchauffement
Globe and Mail, 9 May 2008 Global cooling theories put scientists on guard
Wired News, 8 May 2008 Climate Scientists Put Their Money Where Their Models Are
Victorville Daily Press (CA), Apr 28 2008 Letter: Global warming criticism was never peer-reviewed (letter to editor)
Time Magazine: Apr 28 2008 Top 15 Environmental Websites
Chico Enterprise-Record (CA), 30 Mar 2008 Letter: Spin doctors debunk global warming (letter to editor)
Der Speigel, 5 Mar 2008 BIZARRER KONGRESS: Konferenz der Klimawandel-Leugner
The Nation, 25 Feb 2008 Skeptic Zombie Killed…Again
Le Monde (FR), 15 Jan 2008 Querelle scientifique autour du climat (and here)
New Statesman, 14 Jan 2008 Has global warming really stopped?
Science, 11 Jan 2008 Daggers Are Drawn Over Revived Cosmic Ray-Climate Link (subr.)
Bay Area Indymedia, 8 Jan 2008 The Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Growing?
The Guardian (UK), 5 Jan 2008 50 people who could save the planet
The Times (UK), 20 Dec 2007 We must acknowledge global warming, and act (letter)
20 Minutes (Fr), 20 Dec 2007 Les sceptiques français du climat accusés de tricherie
Le Monde (Fr), 19 Dec 2007 Une étude “climato-sceptique” soulève des soupçons de fraude
Libération (Fr), 19 Dec 2007 Le coup de colère du climatologue
The Independent (UK), 9 Dec 2007 My Week in Media: Chris Huhne
Salon.com, 19 Nov 2007 America’s water war
Science News, 17 Nov 2007 Science Safari: Climate of Debate
MSNBC, 16 Nov 2007 Al Gore for Science Czar?
Middle East Online, 16 Nov 2007 How Dry We Are (and several other online sources)
ScienceNOW Daily News, 9 Nov 2007 Giving Climate Change a Kick
Ely Times (Nevada), 7 Nov 2007 Ely focal point of global warming debate
Edmonton Journal, 28 Oct 2007 Self-serving’ Gore film useful, astronaut says
Westminster Community Times (MD), 24 Oct 2007 Wacky weather a sign of what?
BBC News (online), 15 Oct 2007 Northwest Passage: Your questions answered
Christian Science Monitor, 14 Oct 2007 Global-warming skeptics: Is it only the news media who need to chill?
Wichita Eagle (Kansas), 24 Aug 2007 Why do some deny global warming? (editorial)
Chico Enterprise-Record (California), 18 Aug 2007 Propaganda confuses issue
The Guardian, 16 Aug 2007 Blogger gets all hot and bothered over NASA’s climate data error
The Daily Telegraph, 16 Aug 2007 Nasa climate change error spotted by blogger
Newsweek, 8 Aug 2007 Resisting Change: Global Warming Deniers: Live Talk
Geotimes, August 2007 Down to Earth with science bloggers Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann
Canberra Times (Australia), 13 Jul 2007 Old tricks still dog warming debate
National Geographic News, 12 Jul 2007 Sun Not a Global Warming Culprit, Study Says
Daily Telegraph (Australia), 6 Jul 2007 A Live Earth starts with you
The Observer (UK), 24 Jun 2007 The melting ice man cometh
Barossa News (Australia), 12 Jun 2007 climate comment (letter to editor)
The Nation, 11 Jun 2007 The Greenhousers Strike Back and Strike Out
The Barre Montpelier Times Argus (Vermont), 10 Jun 2007 Sanders is wrong: Cause of warming unknown (also Rutland Herald)
High Country News, 24 May 2007 Why are there still climate-change deniers?
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (online), 24 May 2007 Global Warming and Wisconsin
New York Times (magazine), 20 May 2007 Al Gore Has Big Plans (also International Herald Tribune, Tuscaloosa News and Hendersonville Times News )
Santa Barbara Independent, 17 May 2007 Six books that will boost your climate change awareness
New York Resident, 15 May 2007 Worried About Environmental Doom? Go See An Eco-therapist
Athens News (Ohio), 14 May 2007 Area coal operator throws cold water on climate-change threat
This Week in Science, 8 May 2007 podcast
Salon.com, 4 May 2007, Alexander Cockburn’s climate change adventure
The Record (Ontario CA), 3 May 2007 Program had errors (letter to editor)
The New Republic (online), 2 May 2007 The Plank: What’s Your Excuse?
Vanity Fair (online), May 2007 The 2007 Green Issue: Online Resources
Seattle Times, 29 Apr 2007 UW conference will address the ethics of climate change
This Week in Science, 24 April 2007 podcast
PBS Frontline (online), April 2007 The Doubters of Global Warming
The State Journal (West Virginia), 12 Apr 2007 British Program Offers Another View of Global Warming
Daily Texan, 10 Apr 2007 Ignoring warning signs as world warms
Alaska Report, 9 Apr 2007 Climate change skeptics roll on
Philadelphia Inquirer, 9 Apr 2007 Eco-anxiety: Something else to worry about
The Guardian (UK), 7 Apr 2007 Hot rods of the apocalypse
MSNBC, 5 Apr 2007 Cosmic Log
Plenty Magazine (NY), April 2007 Global Warming Guru
Times Argus (Vermont), 25 Mar 2007 Global warming hits a raw nerve for some (see also Rutland Herald)
Huffington Post, 23 Mar 2007 On Hurricanes and Much Else, Gore Did Better Than his Congressional Critics
New Scientist, 22 Mar 2007 Al Gore rallies US Congress over climate
Frankfurter Allgemaine, 22 Mar 2007 Globale Erwärmung. Ist der Klimawandel nicht als Schwindel?
Alaska Report, 22 Mar 2007 More from ‘Inconvenient Gore’
New York Times (letters), 20 Mar 2007 Al Gore and the Climate Debate
New Scientist (online), 19 Mar 2007 Climate Change: Who is swindling who?
New York Review of Books, 15 Mar 2007 Warning on Warming
The Guardian (UK), 14 Mar 2007 The swindle of the climate change swindle?
Huffington Post, 13 Mar 2007 Debunking the NYT’s Sloppy Hit Piece on Gore
Salon.com, 13 Mar 2007, New York Times and Al Gore’s Science
The Guardian (UK), 13 Mar 2007 Don’t let truth stand in the way of a red-hot debunking of climate change
Daily Telegram (Michigan), 11 Mar 2007 Rally to slow Global Warming
Courier News (New Jersey), 9 Mar 2007, Free screening of ‘An Inconvenient Truth’
Daily Breeze, 26 Feb 2007 Somebody want to introduce Ernie the Attorney and Crazy Gene?
Herald Journal (Utah), 24 Feb 2007, Climate data misunderstood (letter to editor)
La Presse, 20 Feb 2007, Des «éco-sceptiques» à l’assaut du Web
Napa Valley Register, 19 Feb 2007, A lot of hot air? (letter to editor)
The Street, 10 Feb 2007, Weekend Linkfest
Salon.com, 7 Feb 2007, How the World Works: Climate change, the North Pole, and an imaginary Chinese navy
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 2 Feb 2007 Climate Change Questions Answered
Wallowa County Chieftan, 11 Jan 2007 A change in the weather: Cold facts and second looks
NPR (“All Things Considered”), 10 Jan 2007 Is Warm January a Sign of Good Luck, or Bad Times?
NBC Channel 10 (Philadelphia), 9 Jan 2007 Hurricane Blog: A Great Climate Website
Air America Radio, 8 Jan 2007 Interview with Dr. Joseph Romm
‘Foriegn Policy’, Jan/Feb 2007 Expert Sitings
Vancouver Sun, 31 Dec 2006 Climate issues divide colleagues at UBC (also Victoria Times Colonist)
MSNBC, 29 Dec 2006 Big Science for 2007
East Oregonian, 28 Dec 2006 Man-caused emissions just tiny bit of stratosphere
Guardian, 21 Dec 2006 The new 100 most useful sites
Antarctic Sun, 3 Dec 2006 Closed Case
Fast Company, Dec 2006/Jan 2007 An Inconvenient Business
World Changing, 30 Nov 2006 Overstating the obvious?
Wall Street Journal, 27 Nov 2006 Blog Watch: Weather And Legal Scholarship (subscription required)
World Changing, 27 Nov 2006 GeoEngineering in the Anthropocene Era
The Guardian, 14 Nov 2006, This is a dazzling debunking of climate change science. It is also wildly wrong
Sunday Telegraph, 12 Nov 2006, Wrong problem, wrong solution
CNN , 24 Oct 2006, Google launches personalized search engine (see also BBC, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, and Los Angeles Times).
Online Opinion (Australia), 4 Oct 2006, The consequences are upon us
Salon.com, 13 Sep 2006, How the World Works: State of Imbecility
Chronicle of Higher Education, 8 Sept. 2006, Climate Science on Trial
Salon.com, 31 Aug 2006, How the World Works: Peer-review’s Myspace problem
Seed Magazine, August 2006, The Contrarian
The Independent (UK), 24 Aug 2006, Katrina and the waves: the row over hurricanes
Charlotte Observer, 15 Aug 2006, Looking for facts in all the wrong places
Discovery Channel (on-line), 1 Aug 2006, July 2006: Hottest on Record?
Associated Press (syndicated), 28 Jul 2006,Utilities Paying Global Warming Skeptic
Der Spiegel, 22 Jul 2006, Did Al Get the Science Right?
Nature, 12 July 2006, Should we flood the air with sulphur?
Contra Costa Times, 12 July 2006, What to do about it (letter to editor)
Ventura County Star, 9 July 2006, Don’t Chill Out on Reporting All Facts (letter to editor)
Nature, 6 July 2006, Top five science blogs
Westworld, 29 June 2006, The Sceptic
Huffington Post (blog), 29 June 2006, The Poker Player’s Guide to Climate Change
New York Times, 22 June 2006, Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate
The New Republic, 21 June 2006, Hot Topic
Monterey County Weekly, 15 June 2006, Global Power: Al Gore speaks with Bob Edwards about politics and the end of the world”
Salon.com, 10 June 2006, Did Al get the science right?
Agence Sciencepress, 2 Jun 2006, La science derriere Al Gore
New York Times, 29 May 2006, Swift Boating the Planet”
Washington Post Magazine, 28 May 2006 The Tempest
Nature, 23 May 2006 Al Gore: Eco matinee idol?
New York Times, 22 May 2006: ‘An Inconvenient Truth’: Al Gore’s Fight Against Global Warming
Chicago Maroon, 9 May 2006: Gore urges us to accept An Inconvenient Truth
Salon.com, 1 May 2006: How the World Works
Grist Magazine, 19 Apr 2006: Apocalypse 101: A climate-change compendium
New York Times, 18 Apr 2006: The Big Burp Theory of the Apocalypse (op-ed by Nicholas Kristof)
Boston Globe, 9 Apr 2006: In the Balance: Is balanced journalism to blame for the lack of action on global warming?
Bio-IT World, 6 Apr 2006: Web 2.0: Scientists Need to Mash It Up
Alberquerque Journal, 2 Apr, 2006: Science, Politics and Press Releases
New York Times, 2 Apr 2006: Mulling the World From a Bench on Broadway
Nature, Mar 29 2006: Climate Science: The son also rises
Agence Sciencepress, 27 Mar 2006, En manchette: Vous êtes inondé
Globe and Mail (Canada), Mar 18 2006: Baby, its Warm Outside
Z Magazine, Feb 2006: Climate Talks in Montreal
Der Spiegel, Jan 20 2006: Spiegal Surfs the Web: Blogging Climate Change
Daily Kos (blog), Jan 20 2006: Science Friday: RealClimate
USA Today (online), Jan 2006: The Weather Guys (see “worth reading” sidebar)
Grist Magazine, Dec 29, 2005: RealClimate one year in
Agence Sciencepress, 26 Dec 2005, En manchette: La science et vous en 2005
Agence Sciencepress, 23 Dec 2005, Blogue et science: un retour vers la vraie nature d’Internet
Grist Magazine, Dec 20, 2005: Skepticism, real and faux
MSNBC, Dec 8 2005: Science ran headlong into society in 2005
Seed Magazine, Dec 2005, Gavin Schmidt: Climate modeller/Blogger of record (not available online)
Nature, 438, 548-549 1 Dec 2005: Science in the web age: Joint efforts
Agence Sciencepress, 25 Nov 2005, Dossier : Le blogue
Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Germany), 7 Nov 2005: Stärker, öfter, weiter
Insurance NewsNet, 1 Nov 2005: Are more Katrinas on the Horizon?
New Jersey Herald, 24 Oct 2005: Is Hurricane Intensity and Frequency Linked to Global Warming?
San Luis Obispo Tribune, 21 Oct 2005: Scientists seek to set the record straight on global warming (see also Charlotte Observer and Bradenton Herald)
MSNBC, 20 Oct 2005: Cosmic Log
Seattle Times, 9 Oct 2005: The truth about global warming and Is warming making hurricanes more ferocious? (see also Austin American -Statesman TX (10/30/05))
Chronicle of Higher Education, 4 Oct 2005: The Blogosphere as a Carnival of Ideas
Scientific American, 3 Oct 2005: Science and Technology Web Awards 2005
Agence Sciencepress, 3 Oct 2005, Michael Crichton au Senat
Planning Magazine: August/September 2005 Heat Wave
The Nation, 29 Sep 2005 (online version of Oct. 17 2005 issue): Global Storm Warning
Heise online (Germany), 28 Sep 2005: Was Katrina und Rita uns gelehrt haben
USA Today, 26 Sep 2005: Our denial is at Category 5 (op-ed)
EarthVision, 19 Sep 2005: Is there a link between global warming and hurricane Katrina?
The Ledger (Lakeland, Florida), 17 Sep 2005: Global Warming: Hurricanes Strengthen
The News and Observer (Rayleigh/Durham, North Carolina), 17 Sep 2005: Storms’ severity on the rise
U.Mass magazine, 16 Sep 2005: Never mind the weather?
The New Yorker, 12 Sep 2005: Storm Warnings
New York Times, 11 Sep 2005, Op-ed by Nicholas Kristoff: The Storm Next Time
(see also article in the International Herald Tribune)
WHYY (Philadelphlia, PA), 7 Sep 2005: ‘Radio Times with Marty Moss-Coane’
MSNBC, 2 Sep 2005: Cosmic Log
Lincoln Journal Star, 27 Aug 2005: Global Warming is Real (letter to editor)
Williamette Week, 24 Aug 2005: Hot or Not (see hyperlink in article)
Washington Post, 22 Jul 2005: A Bid to Chill Thinking
Wall Street Journal, 18 Jul 2005: Researchers, Lawmakers Criticize Probe Into Climate Calculations (by subscription only; see hyperlink in article)
New York Times, 18 Jul 2005: Two G.O.P. Lawmakers Spar Over Climate Study (see “related”)
USA Today, 18 Jul 2005: Global Warming Roils Congress (see “related items”)
Chronicle of Higher Education, 15 Jul 2005: Demand for Their Data on Climate Chills Scientists
US News & World Report, 14 Jul 2005: Fighting over a hockey stick
Chronicle of Higher Education, 1 Jul 2005: Congressman Demands Complete Records on Climate Research by 3 Scientists Who Support Theory of Global Warming
American Prospect (online), 27 June 2005: Debunking the Debunkers (see hyperlink in article)
Washington Monthly, 26 June 2005: The Feverish Wall Street Journal
Useless Knowledge, 20 June 2005: More About Global Warming Versus The Next Ice Age
Radio Singapore, 20 June 2005: Doomsday Reports on Climate Change – Reliable?
The Daily Telegraph (UK), 9 June 2005: “Footnote Frenzy”
Nature 435 26 May 2005: “Scientists need back-up by climate organizations”
American Scientist, 9 May 2005: RealClimate named “Site of the Week”
American Scientist, 2 May 2005: Science in the News (weekly Newsletter)
North Adams Transcript, 30 April 2005: Megabits and Pieces
Technology Review, 27 April 2005: Greenhouse Gas
NPR “Science Friday”, 22 April 2005: Climate Change Update
Mother Jones, 17 April 2005: The Man Behind the Hockey Stick
Washington Times, 4 April 2005: Climate: Hockey sticks and hobby horses
Washington Times, 21 March 2005: Climate: A hard look at the long term
Le Monde (France): 19 March 2005: La pollution et l’inertie du climat rendent ses changements inéluctables
New Scientist: 19 March 2005: Bad climate (letter to editor)
Australian Broadcasting Corporation: 7 March 2005: Journalist puts global warming sceptics under the spotlight
Scientific American, March 2005: The Man Behind the Hockey Stick
Washington Times, 28 February 2005: Open Season on Hockeysticks
BBC Radio (“Today Programme”), 24 February 2005: A climate scientist Professor Michael Mann suggests global warming is caused by mankind
Nature 433, p. 800 (Feb 24, 2005): Climate blog could score with newer hockey stick
Le Monde (France), 16 February 2005 : Kyoto, An 1 (pdf file)
Wall Street Journal, 14 February 2005: In Climate Debate, The ‘Hockey Stick’ Leads to a Face-Off
Le Devoir (Québec) : 12-13 February 2005 : Un blogue chaud
La Libre Belgique, 12 February 2005: Blog climatique
Toronto Star, 12 February 2005: Scientific Din Distorting Kyoto Message
La Recherche, 5 February 2005: Combattre les idées fausses sur le climat (subscription required).
Grist Magazine, 1 Feb 2005: Distort Reform
Yahoo News, 1 Feb 2005: Crichton best-seller stokes fire over global warming
Physics Today, Feb 2005, p 28: Web watch (subscription required)
Knight Ridder Newspapers (syndicated), 27 January 2005: Global warming novel a hit with politicians, but not scientists
Concord Monitor, 27 January 2005: Missed Point (letter to editor)
Cyber-Presse, 24 January 2005: Bloguer sur le climat
MSNBC, 24 January 2005: Reports put Different Spins on Global Warming
High Country News, 24 January 2005: Written in the Rings
American Prospect (online), 10 January 2005: Warmed Over (see hyperlinks in article)
Washington Monthly, 10 January 2005: New Blog Recommendations
Los Angeles Times, 9 January 2005: Being Set Free From Fear of the Future
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 2 January 2005: Fiction not Fact (letter to editor)
Le Monde (France), 1 January 2005: Sur RealClimate.org, des spécialistes traquent impostures et erreurs scientifiques
Libération (France), 29 December 2004: Ras le blog des contre-vérités
MSNBC, 28 December 2004: The Web in waves’ wake
Contra Costa Times, 26 December 2004: Climate: Climatologist Can’t Warm to Crichton Novel
Science, 306,(24 December 2004); p2167 WEB LOGS: Sifting for Truth About Global Warming
Washington Times, 21 December 2004: Climate: Consensus in any language
Nature, 432, (23 December 2004); p933 Welcome climate bloggers, p937 Climatologists get real over global warming
New York Newsday, Sunday 19 December 2004: The Book on Global Warming
Initial Press Release, Friday 10 December, 2004: Top Scientists Launch RealClimate.org
The missing piece at the Wegman hearing
It’s not often that blogs come up in congressional hearings, but RealClimate was mentioned yesterday in the Energy and Commerce hearings on the ‘Hockey Stick’ affair. Of course, it was only to accuse us of being part of tight-knit social network of climate scientists, but still, the public recognition is nice.
There is much that could be said about the hearings (and no doubt will be) and many of the participants (Tom Karl, Tom Crowley, Hans von Storch, Gerry North) did a good job in articulating the big picture on climate change independently of the ‘hockey stick’ study as we’ve highlighted before. But it seems to us that there was a missing element in the discussions. That element was the direct implication of the critique that was the principal focus of Wegman’s testimony and that was mentioned periodically throughout the day. [Read more…] about The missing piece at the Wegman hearing
It’s different in Europe
Paul Thacker has an interesting interview with a European and a US journalist on the media coverage of climate science in Europe. The standard contrarian line does not get as much attention there as it does in the US (which is good), but whether that means that the journalism there is actually better is a tricky point. So what makes for good climate science journalism and do they do it better over there?
Introducing RC forum
It’s clear that there is a need to have some posts and discussions that specifically deal with up-to-the-minute articles and issues that we don’t necessarily want to cover in our usual detail. This might be related to a recent op-ed which just repeats the same talking-points as usual, or pointers to good discussions on other sites. To that end, we are introducing a separate category of post, called “RC forum”, where we will post these more minor items. Hopefully, this will help make interesting comment threads, which now sometimes occur under completely unrelated posts, easier to find and reference. The big pieces will still appear on the front page and in the RSS and Google feeds but the RC forum pieces will not. Right now, a notification email is sent out for every post, but we could restrict this to main page items if needed. There is now a link on the top bar to the RC Forum page and recent comments on Forum pieces will appear on the sidebar. Please let us know if you think this is a good idea or if you have ideas to improve it.
‘The Discovery of Global Warming’ update
If you haven’t already seen the American Institute of Physics website by Spencer Weart on the ‘The Discovery of Global Warming’, we heartily recommend it. It provides both a summary of science, and more importantly, a history of how an obscure speculation from over one hundred years ago has become the scientific consensus of today. It has recently been updated with many more references from 1873 to the present, and so is even more worth reading. Spencer is very keen on getting feedback on the project, so don’t hesitate to let him know what you think.
Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue
Guest post by Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University
A plethora of research articles has appeared over the past year reporting new observations of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets along with associated modeling results. RealClimate has reviewed the issues raised by these articles and attempted to clarify the sometimes conflicting inferences about the current mass balance of the ice sheets, as well as their future contributions to global mean sea level rise (see here and here).
Nevertheless, the issue still seems to perplex many journalists and others because there are two entirely distinct aspects of the sea level rise problem that are emphasized, depending on which scientists are speaking. On the one hand, these ices sheets are large enough to ultimately raise sea level by 7m and about 5m, for Greenland and West Antarctica, respectively. On the other, the recent observations that caused such a stir report a current contribution to the rate of sea level rise not exceeding ~1mm/yr from both ice sheets taken together. If this rate were maintained, the ice sheets would make a measurable but minor contribution to the global sea level rise from other sources, which has been 1-2mm/yr averaged over the past century and 3mm/yr for 1993-2003, and is projected to average 1-9mm/yr for the coming century (see IPCC Third Assessment Report).
The key question is whether the ice sheet contribution could accelerate substantially (e.g., by an order of magnitude) either in this century or subsequently. Sea levels were indeed much higher in the distant, warmer past but the timing of earlier sea level rise is very uncertain. From the point of view of societal and ecosystem adaptation, the timescale over which ice sheets might disintegrate, which may be on the order of centuries or millennia according to the two extremes posited in the literature, is crucial. [Read more…] about Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue
National Academies Synthesis Report
The long-awaited NAS synthesis report on surface temperature reconstructions over the last few millennia is being released today. It’s a long (155 page) report and will take a while to digest, but we applaud the committee for having tried to master a dense thicket of publications and materials on the subject over a relatively short time.
It is probably expecting too much for one report might to put to rest all the outstanding issues in a still-developing field. And given the considerable length of the report, we have little doubt that keen contrarians will be able to mine the report for skeptical-sounding sentences and cherry-pick the findings. However, it is the big picture conclusions that have the most relevance for the lay public and policymakers, and it is re-assuring (and unsurprising) to see that the panel has found reason to support the key mainstream findings of past research, including points that we have highlighted previously:
[Read more…] about National Academies Synthesis Report
NOAA: Hurricane forecasts
Guest commentary from Thomas Crowley
NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the hurricane season, along with its now-standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40-60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”–see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation. [Read more…] about NOAA: Hurricane forecasts