This month’s open thread for climate science. Start of the meteorological summer, official hurricane season (outlook), the final stretches of the IPCC AR6 review process and a rare conjunction of Father’s Day and the summer solstice. Please stay on topic.
#91, BPL–
I agree; while ‘feeding the trolls’ is not good in principle, I think it’s very important not to allow a thread to be “Swift-boated.”
I think your responses are often quite excellent, in that you A) are very terse & pithy; and B) fairly often keep it fact-based. (IMO, depersonalizing issues is a good general tactic.)
Jask airport, Iran – OIZJ – on June 15, 12z reported T=38C, Dew Point 34C.
This would be a wet bulb temp. of 34.7C, hottest I’ve seen so far this summer. 35C is regarded as lethal.
#99 Al Gores internet? Al Gore never ever claimed to have invented the internet, he claimed that he and other members of Congress in both houses worked to assure funding for the science and engineering that led to the WEB! You need to admit that you are a rather silly troll and a complete waste of time!
“This is so morally irresponsible and shameful. Sure Mr. Know Nothing posts in a friendly folksy way to come across as a nice guy who is just a little doubtful, but this is just a facade to mask his lack of compassion and evil selfish intent.”
Standard Heartland Institute tactics. Political lobbying 101.
KIA, #99–
That, interestingly enough, was a significant term for Fourier, back in 1822, and he devoted a fair bit of thought to attempting to estimate “the temperature of space.” As the 19th century wore on, though, it became increasingly clear that this is not in fact a measurable influence on Terrestrial temperatures.
https://hubpages.com/education/The-Science-Of-Global-Warming-In-The-Age-Of-Napoleon
KIA@99 asks ‘ I wonder if scientists measure the temperature of space that the earth is orbiting through. Whether it affects earth temp or not, does it vary along our orbital path? Lol. That’s one of his best yet. Wrong in so many ways – from the basic physics of vacuums not having a ‘temperature’ to measure (background cosmic radiation aside) through the fact that we have had satellites in orbit for the last 60 years, many of which will for engineering purposes have monitored internal temperatures, to using measurements of microwave radiation to observe our solar surroundings so yes, scientists have measured temperatures in space, and no, they haven’t observed any variation of any significance to questions of climate change.
Thanks, Kevin.
KIA @ 99 wrote
Please post references to peer-reviewed scientific articles that support this hypothesis — or shut up.
Pine Island Glacier ice shelf could fall apart in decades.
Surely, I am not the only person not surprised by this?
Of possible interest: “Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047
That’s a 14-yr. doubling. Once again, faster than expected. (And once again, faster than *who* expected? No surprise here…) It’s not slowing down any time soon. Like the Pine Island ice shelf, this does not surprise me as I predicted just such this sort of thing was coming based on smaller-scale doublings popping up already.
Exponential changes, non-linear changes, chaotic changes do not happen steadily and ploddingly, but fitfully and rapidly – expecially when you’ve removed the brakes as we have.
in 2005, there was a positive imbalance of about half a watt per square meter of energy from the sun, and in 2019, the positive imbalance was one watt per square meter in 2005
Implications?
@nigelj Sounds like Ronald Reagan.
Arctic may have passed point of no return says leading expert
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1450702/arctic-tipping-point-markus-rex-climate-change-global-warming-evg?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20210617&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20Daily
“.. the scientist who led the world’s largest-ever expedition to the Arctic claims melting ice in the world’s northernmost region may have passed the tipping point.
Once it passes the tipping point, the seasonal sea ice might not recover.
In 2020, Markus Rex of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany led 200 scientists on a year-long expedition to the Arctic.
Experts got a chance to see the devastation that the warming globe has had on the Arctic first hand – and the results do not look good.”
glass half melted kinda story. These scientists need to cheer up a bit.
on the trolls: I think it makes sense to simply respond to some posts with a very short message in this manner:
KIA at 67: utter nonsense.
If we want a civil and informative message board for lurkers or for other reasons, then I think we should keep the back and forth with the well-known trolls to an absolute minimum. A protracted back and forth might feel logical to each of us, but to the trolls, it is “owning the libs” by wasting our time.
Cheers
Mike
Don’t Worry about CO2, Worry about the Earth’s ‘Energy Balance’
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dont-worry-about-co2-worry-about-the-earths-energy-balance/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20energy-and-sustainability%20%28Topic%3A%20Energy%20%26%20Sustainability%29&utm_content=20210617&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner
Interesting article. I just skimmed it, but right off the bat I think it misses something important about CO2 emissions which is that the emissions don’t just create the energy imbalance, these emissions also increase ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is likely to be a significant driver in the current great extinction event, so it should not be relegated to back burner status.
I think scientists with a little more biology in their science are likely to agree, but who knows? And of course, the trolls will post about CO2 as plant food and other utter nonsense because that’s what trolls do.
Despite my criticism abt acidification, I think this study and framing about energy imbalance is likely to help some folks understand the nature of our problem and our collective need to respond to it (on the forced responses threat, of course).
Cheers
Mike
Here’s an idea –
how bout one commenter a month is assigned to correcting KIA, for the benefit of lurkers? As it stands, the dozens of rebuttals tend to overwhelm what might otherwise be an interesting thread.
Ladies and gentlemen
“What shall we do with the drunken sailor…”
I think especially of Dr. KIA
Any suggestions?
We should try and sing a song for him together at least.
But, it is a bit in my facultary and professional interest that they are present and can be studied and examplified, because I happen to be “Inter- facultary” in most of my life and professional work.
Never buy a suit or any stitched or woven cloth or carpet without having inspected it from the back or “wrong” side also. That rules for the history of science, of philosophy, of art, and of religion in a quite important way.
Also study and be aware of the history of QUACKery, Mad- ness, and para- sciences. It shows quite interestingly that folklore and the wrong- side follows, and is rather a direct and dependent consequence of the right side, just lapping 100- 300 years in behind.
This is actually the very nature of Trolls also, from ancient on.
And another important rule according to C.G.Jung: The Devil, SATAN, quite often appears and perfrorms in yesterdays priests suit.
nigelj @110 & Mike @114,
There is a joint AGU/NASA press release on Loeb et al (2021). It includes a useful-looking graphic of the wobbling imbalance 2005-19 and also mentions the PDO, before quoting Norman Loeb saying:-
I would assume the bit about “unprecedented” is saying that the magnitude of the increase is unexpected (which is how other quoted coverage puts it).
mike #114,
It would have been nice if for the last 30-odd years, the concept of “energy (im)balance” had been used by scientists in communicating with the public about climate. Much, much, less confusing than “warming” and “change”, and much harder to misrepresent by the Denialists.
“It’s the physics, stupid”, as they say.
Of course, we didn’t have the same quality of data, but just making very very clear in every statement that the energy imbalance is the cause of what we could observe… temperature, melting ice, and so on… would have been helpful.
In my experience, “the public” can understand concepts better than most scientists (and educators) think they can.
mike, #113–
My perspective, FWIW: I don’t care if they enjoy the interchange–in fact, I’m glad for the trolls’ enjoyment, in an abstract, Utilitarian fashion. (Though my ‘reptilian brain’ has a different take!)
The crucial question for me is, is it the best use of my time? My style tends toward the counterpunch, so every such post is for me an invitation to post information I regard as correct or reliable, or at least plausible and interesting. And that has some value.
But perhaps the time would be better spent organizing or writing or some other pro-climate activity? That’s the call that has to be made, over and over again.
#106, Astringent–
If I understand Fourier’s conception of “the temperature of space” correctly, it was a purely radiative one. (Of course, back in the 1820s the nature of heat was still being worked out.) It’s a striking formulation from a modern perspective.
And then there are cases like Earth’s “thermosphere”–the thermal properties of which elicit some confused language from Wikipedia (though I think we know what they are trying to say):
1. Repetition increases belief in all kinds of statements, both absurd and believable. However…
2. Big Lies – and all lies – work specifically because modern humans prefer happy lies to uncomfortable truths, therefore…
3. allowing repetition of climate denial (which promises everything is fine, you can have your EV supercar and almond milk super-double-pump choco caramel latte) on this site, and the constant multiplying of the lies by having them repeated (via rebuttal) by many other posters only reinforces climate denial in the end.
When you pass a tipping point, as we have with climate change acceptance, it is no longer useful or effective to fight the denial; all energy must be put into dealing with the state the phase change has led to.
This is *not* a debate. If you think it is, you don’t understand what is going on. If you are not Bore Holing denialists, you are making a mistake. If you are engaging denialists, you are making a mistake. Leave denialists to scream at each other in their bizarro echo chamber.
114 Mike says:
17 Jun 2021 at 11:50 AM
Don’t Worry about CO2, Worry about the Earth’s ‘Energy Balance’
Interesting article. I just skimmed it, but right off the bat I think it misses something important about CO2 emissions which is that the emissions don’t just create the energy imbalance, these emissions also increase ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is likely to be a significant driver in the current great extinction event, so it should not be relegated to back burner status.
I think scientists with a little more biology in their science are likely to agree, but who knows? And of course, the trolls will post about CO2 as plant food and other utter nonsense because that’s what trolls do.
Despite my criticism abt acidification, I think this study and framing about energy imbalance is likely to help some folks understand the nature of our problem and our collective need to respond to it (on the forced responses threat, of course).
Cheers
You should have read it all. The headline is inaccurate. It might have read, “Earth’s Energy Imbalance is a More Accurate Metric Than Atmospheric GHG’s.”
In fact, it specifically states there are many feedbacks that are not reflected in direct GHG measurement and that is why energy imbalance is a more accurate metric.
The writer was careless in using the phrase “don’t worry about.”
RSS has posted the numbers for May with a global TLT anomaly of +0.55ºC, a tiny rise from April’s anomaly of +0.54ºC and the third highest monthly anomaly of the year which span the range +0.47ºC to +0.65ºC.
May 2021 is the 7th warmest May on the RSS TLT record (=7th in GISTEMP SAT, =10th in UAH TLT) behind the years 2020, 2016, 1998, 2010, 2010 & 2019 and May 2021 is the =88th warmest monthly anomaly in the all-month RSS TLT record (=77th in GISTEMP SAT, =111th in UAH TLT).
The first five months of 2021 average +0.56ºC and are the 7th warmest start-to-the-year on the RSS TLT record (8th in GISTEMP SAT, 14th in UAH TLT) behind the years 2016, 2020, 2019, 1998, 2010 & 2017.
Re #114
Mike,
The title of the SciAm article “Don’t Worry about CO2, Worry about the Earth’s ‘Energy Balance’” is misleading. The paper they are reporting on is the one cited by Nigelj Loeb et all 20021 at #110: “Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate.” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047
It is arguing that we should not be judging the effect of CO2 by its effect on outgoing radiation, by its effect on the total radiation balance, which also includes changes to incoming and outgoing radiation as a result in changes in clouds and ice sheets. These changes to global albedo are the result of the increase in CO2 and other anthropogenic changes, i.e. clearing of forests which change planetary albedo.
SciAmm also cite von Schuckmanm et al. (2015) which is open access at: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2876
So they are not saying ignore changes in CO2. Ocean Acidification will still occur.
Yakutia, eastern Siberia, is burning 24/7/52. In the winter months the fires smolder in the permafrost and peat.
From the Siberian Times.
@mike 114 about energy balance article is a quote
“My hope is this study will inspire people in the modeling community to … test the models in innovative ways that will enable us to say something more about what’s gonna happen in the future,” Loeb said. “There’s more work to be done on the modeling side to unscramble this a little further.
HOPE? SERIOUSLY?
I don’t know why they bother. Such a non-event all round. Let’s do better studies? What exactly are they waiting for that they do not know already to a sufficient degree??? This is so insipid an approach imho. Like people who are more interested in hearing their own voices in print and in the news.
“Hey, look at me, a new study been done. Global warming and the Climate is still a problem!” Golly who knew?
My point being this makes no difference to anyone anywhere and changes nothing…. let’s wait a year and do another study. The issue is being wholeheartedly ignored (collectively) and kicked down the road.
We know the future already, surely.
Attenborough says: “We are heading for a future where the Great Barrier Reef is a coral graveyard.”
from ‘Breaking Boundaries: The Science of Our Planet’ Review: A Dire Warning
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/shocking-facts-david-attenborough-netflix-film/
Tipping points arise again …. this was known in the 1990s. What’s happening now was predicted (sic) in the 1990s
And the issue is much bigger than CO2 / carbon emissions or PPM. The facts remain the same.
eg from the new tv doco ( which will be as ignored as the last and the next study/paper is. )
1. The world has only had a stable climate for the past 10,000 years — and civilization has depended on it
2. Now we are living in the Anthropocene
3. We really need ice caps
4. The Amazon rainforest is getting… dry (aka trees and forests matter more than soya beans and cattle)
5. Bumblebee ‘theft’ once caused an international spat (biodiversity destruction by all causes)
6. Coral reef decimation [ by 2050 ] is one of the saddest parts of the climate crisis
7. One person needs about 3,000 litres of fresh water a day to live [ that’s not new news btw ]
8. The Australian wildfires and COVID-19 were [JUST ANOTHER SCREAMING] wake-up call [AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED AS A RESULT]
AND LASTLY
9. There’s still hope
The documentary highlights how nations rallied back in the 1980s to stop using the chlorine-based chemicals that were depleting the ozone layer in the southern hemisphere.
Attenborough explains that this is an example of governments acting on a threat, and shows what can still be done to stop the climate crisis today.
CORRECTION — THAT’S RUBBISH. A LIE. NOTHING WILL BE DONE.
NOTHING SANE OR RATIONAL IS BEING DONE. well, imho, that’s how I see it.
It’s been like this since the RIO summit in the 90s.
PS and they don’t even mention the massive loss of fish stocks in the oceans and seas. Every part of our ecosystems are collapsing .. but at least GDP is up despite Covid19. Sheesh. There is no no hope when that is where humanities head is permanently at.
Regarding the article in SA titled : “Don’t Worry about CO2, Worry about the Earth’s ‘Energy Balance” posted @114. Mike says it misses the effects of CO2 on the ocean. The title also plays into the hands of the denialists, and could create the wrong impression with people who only read the titles of articles. Obviously it was written to grab peoples attention, but a its naieve choice of words.
Reality Check, #126 : “We know the future already, surely.”
Flippant response : What are the lottery numbers for next week ?
Serious response : Please provide a list of all asteroids / comets (including extra-solar ones, see 1I/Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov) larger than 1km (or half a mile, for our American friends) in diameter that will collide with the Earth over the next 79 years (= “by 2100”).
“We” do not “know” ANYTHING for sure (to 5 decimal places).
Listen to the experts : “If you thought that science was certain … well, that is just an error on your part.” — Richard Feynman
115 Western Hiker says:
17 Jun 2021 at 10:50 PM
Here’s an idea –
how bout one commenter a month is assigned to correcting KIA, for the benefit of lurkers?
A worthy compromise to just Bore Holing the criminal.
As it stands, the dozens of rebuttals tend to overwhelm what might otherwise be an interesting thread.
Ding, ding, ding!
Who could’ve imagined a world where water would become a scarce resource? Well, that’s the reality we find ourselves living in. Wars in the not-so-distant future will be fought over water instead of or in addition to oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnJ4gjVZqao
Asymmetry? uh oh…
“An assumption that is commonly made when balancing a CO2 emission with a CO2 removal is that “one tonne in equals one tonne out” – that is, that the behaviour of the climate system in response to emissions and removals is “symmetrical”.
But this assumption had not been tested, and – while likely reasonable for small emissions and removals – it seemed unlikely to hold for larger emissions and removals due to the non-linear nature of the Earth system.
In a new paper, published in Nature Climate Change, my colleagues and I show that the climate response to emissions and removals is actually “asymmetrical” – that is, the carbon cycle and climate response to CO2 emissions is not equal and opposite to CO2 removals of the same magnitude.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-co2-removal-is-not-equal-and-opposite-to-reducing-emissions?utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20carbonbrief%20%28The%20Carbon%20Brief%29&utm_content=20210622&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner
Like the energy balance article, I think this piece suggests things could be more complicated than we would like to think wrt CO2 and CO2e and global warming. I expect the folks who comment here with a respect and appreciation for the complexity of biological systems will not be surprised.
Cheers
Mike
Ladies and Gentlemen
John Pollack 102 tells us that 35Celsius is regarded as lethal.
That is true only under circumstances, and something that everyone outght to know about., It further depends very much on moisture, and on whether you are able to cool or get away from it in any kind of way, which is an important element of lifestyle in the hottest countries.
I spoke with Ali from Mali and asked for his opinion about 4 deg hotter in 2100. Here in Norway I could gladly like it because I hate the winter thus from a selfish point of wiew,… but what about Mali?
Oh no, he said. Heat is something that we tacle and are well aquainted to., The worst probglem is that peaple are so stingy. When people are so stingy, the whole world will become a desert.
Pope Franscis has said that Air Condition is sinful.
Which seems to be the autentic orthodox Italian and Argentinian point of wiew, to which we can agree. It drains a lot of unnecessary electricity and causes further AGW.
Rumors tell that in a US- university they had a heat- wave, and the students suggested that they all go over to the Mensa, where there was Air condition. Exept for the peculiar Italian who simply sat there on a chair in the huge, safe and shadowy university building and refused to take any step at all at that temperature.
Which is the typical Italian lifestyle. They sit it out and make a long “siesta”. Then they are very active and get a loot of work done in the early mornings, and in the late afternoons and evenings.
I once had to grasp that in july in Firenze: Never struggle around in that high, mid- day sun. And when God created heat, he also created the water melons.
We can see it in classic and antique , arab and mediterranean urban architecture. They did withdraw to the shadows of rather narrow streets between huge and cool white marble houses. In pre- electrical days. Behaving like desert- animals, who live in caves and cracks in the stones to avoid the worst midday sun.
I have seen a glimpse of the American way of life also. In a modern Motel- building there was a device with a turning knob and a hole out through the wall with a grid, giving an irritating humming sound when turned on….
…. and behind there was Big Coal.
It was further ugly because it was a bit chill and moist in the early morning, so I came to think of litting a fire to “clean” the air and get properly dry and warm, and hade to wait for the sun in a sheltered corner, for that.
And then the very traditional pioneering New England way of life, a house out in the forests with simple and thin windows and doors, but with a chimney and a stove in the middle. And on the shadowy north side a long balcony full of old and traditional rocking chairs, where they could sit and rock for some cool aeration, when it got too hot in the summers.
Reality Check @126 says “The documentary highlights how nations rallied back in the 1980s to stop using the chlorine-based chemicals that were depleting the ozone layer in the southern hemisphere…..Attenborough explains that this is an example of governments acting on a threat, and shows what can still be done to stop the climate crisis today….CORRECTION — THAT’S RUBBISH. A LIE. NOTHING WILL BE DONE. NOTHING SANE OR RATIONAL IS BEING DONE….Every part of our ecosystems are collapsing .. but at least GDP is up despite Covid19. Sheesh. ”
I do not know what you are really proposing, because you skirt around all the issues, but it appears you don’t think much of conventional solutions to the climate problem like renewable energy. The alternative solution to fix the climate problem by mostly making cuts to gdp (economic output) would probably require something like a 50% reduction, similar to what happened at the worst point of the great economic depression of the 1930s all to be engineered in about the next ten years. This would be a humanitarian disaster on an epic scale.
Plus what Mark BLR says.
Carbomontanus @132 You seem to have missed that I am considering WET BULB temperature. Exposure to a WET BULB temperature of 35C for a significant period of time is regarded as lethal because you can no longer cool off your body by sweating.
The wet bulb temperature “depends very much on moisture.” However, at a wet bulb temp. of 35C, the air is incredibly moist, with suffocating humidity. The sweat is pouring off your body even if you are lying perfectly still in the shade, with a fan blowing directly on you. Your heart is laboring to pump enough blood past your skin to get even a tiny amount of cooling.
Ali from Mali and the Italians know how to handle drier heat, which means lower wet bulb temperatures. Their highest summer wet bulb might be closer to 25C.
Of course, it stands to reason that this or any other “lethal” condition isn’t lethal if you aren’t actually exposed to it, because of air conditioning or whatever other means of escape. But very high humidity is difficult to get away from without air conditioning, and if it fails, nobody will come to fix it at that temperature.
modern humans prefer happy lies to uncomfortable truths…. says Killian #121. Too true. I agree.
#132 the pioneering New England way of life seems a fair prediction of the future for some but not all will get there.
#130 fresh water, sure is a problem that can only become more extreme widespread and dangerous for humans.
128 Mark BLR, taking things too literal may cause problems with understanding. When mentioning the future I did not set a date nor a specific co2 ppm mark. See? I don’t see the value of criticizing folks for not being scientific when talking about matters import and real.
In mid 1990s circa 3000 acres of forests every hour were being cleared globally. The 3000 number was scientifically based. Imagine it’s still 1995 .. what do you think opinine the future holds going forward @3000/hour?
Now it’s something like ~8000 acres per hour being lost (but unsure). What does the future look like from here on now? Isn’t the “future” abundantly obvious already?
The great barrier reef will be lost mainly due to underwater heatwaves (mass coral bleaching) and not acidification per se. Most likely gone by circa 2050. A third has already gone. That’s science talking. There’s only been 3 mass bleachings happen so far .. it’s a new natural event never seen before by humans/mankind until this century. What does the future hold? Getting the exact future Years and dates or area don’t count. The hard science doesn’t matter either – what matters is the impact/s. Most seem obvious and have been detailed in multiple scientific papers already.
It’s not new. I’m not making anything up. People can know these things and see what the future holds already. Scientists are already crying about it who study it.
Then there’s trend lines for GHG reductions, carbon budgets, land clearing, ice loss, pole caps, Greenland, amazon jungles disappearing, mass extinctions, droughts, wild fires, ongoing agricultural failures/collapses, rivers drying up, sea level rise, carbon soil sequestration in a warming world, geopolitical realities/trends, and so on .. all backed in by real scientific rigor. Right?
So I say Reality Check, #126 : “We know the future already, surely.”
Surely we do already, don’t we? Does knowing the future date matter one bit? I say no.
Which brings us back to Killian’s comment about Happy Lies. Lies such as under 2C and under 1.5C are achievable and rational scientific based TARGETS for the world’s nations. All the scientific evidence to hand is screaming it ain’t gonna happen. No way in the world.
But few if any are communicating these uncomfortable truths. Holding on to Hope and Happy Lies (especially those we might tell ourselves) isn’t going to make things better in the short and long term Future. I fully accept others see things very differently. That’s fine.
I’m simply sharing how I see it and what to me is the most important aspects and the most obvious now. Maybe I am wrong. In the early 2000s maybe the jury was still out .. now the writing is clearly on the wall of where this is going.
All the “net-zero” by 2050 emissions targets are another Happy Lie to distract us from the Uncomfortable Inconvenient Truths.
@mike 131 https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-co2-removal-is-not-equal-and-opposite-to-reducing-emissions
Another good example of knowing the future already.
7 Ric Merritt says:
13 May 2021 at 3:05 PM
Just in case this is unclear to anyone: If someone has your head in a vice….
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/05/why-is-future-sea-level-rise-still-so-uncertain/#comment-791040
and the RC article itself in SLR. Knowing or predicting everything precisely to the moment is not a requirement for making better rational logical ethical and scientific based choices now. But everyone would know that already (and agree perhaps?).
Apologies for repeated comments, trying to ensure the context of #126 is as clear to as many readers as possible. To me it’s looking more like “it’s every man for himself” soon enough. I think we’ve collectively missed the boat.
Article about how some Republican leaders and activist have concluded that climate change denial is becoming an important political liability for their party:
https://dnyuz.com/2021/06/23/some-republicans-find-failure-to-grapple-with-climate-change-a-political-liability/
A longer essay about modern nuclear power plant design and construction, not the older behemoths:
https://www.powermag.com/ge-hitachi-nuclear-costs-innovation-must-be-a-pivotal-focus-for-carbon-free-future/
Crushingly bad:
https://phys.org/news/2021-06-climate-impacts-sooner.html
Everything at once, sooner than thought.
Study: “Extreme weather may not lead to increased support for climate action.”
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/study-extreme-weather-may-not-lead-to-increased-support-for-climate-action/
“Many people aren’t making the connection between global warming and weather disasters….”The data show that Democrats and Republicans living in the same states or counties — or even sharing the same roof — can be a world apart when it comes to perceived experience with global warming (Fig. 1). While 60% of Democrats nationally say they have personally experienced global warming, only 22% of Republicans agree.”
This isn’t too new or surprising, but the commentary makes an interesting point: “People don’t link downpours with global warming. It is encouraging that some people are associating local increases in heat, dryness, and drought with the broader problem of global warming. Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States, and its increasing occurrence brings greater heat-related risks, like dehydration, heat stroke and exhaustion…….In our study, people did not link local increases in heavy rainfall with global warming. Given that the connections between global warming and precipitation patterns are more complex than those for temperature alone, perhaps this is not surprising. Yet the relationship is important and has major consequences for our economy and health. Scientists recently calculated that the impact of global warming on Hurricane Sandy includes a price tag of $8 billion from the flooding damage”
What worries me is if the population STILL can’t make the connection between global warming and changes in precipitation, after literally decades of explanation, when will they ever?
This is why we might need to also focus on other strategies to motivate climate action, like the wider benefits of climate change mitigation policies for example things like the benefits of clean energy grids for health, etc,etc.
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This article from the BBC which references the UK Met Office aligns with my view of the UK weather, clinate change is having an impact now. I have frequently thought the UK’s weather is losing its high frequency variability (i.e. the day-to-day/week-to-week changeability that make it a topic of conversation), and is evolving towards more frerquent longer frequency locked in patterns, when a Northern Hemisphere blocking pattern sets up and the UK gets stuck under a stationary trough (persistent dull wet weather), or a stationary ridge (very dry, sunny, can get very hot by UK standards in high summer e.g. August 2020). We had a wet autum/winter in 2019/20, culminating in the wettest February on record. Once COVID lockdown came into effect, the weather flipped to a bone dry April and May. When restrictions were eased in June, it was the 13th wettest on record. October 2020 had the wettest day on record in terms of quantity of rain falling on the UK as a whole. The second article talks about the UK’s poor preparedness for climate chaos (well we were awful at managing COVID, so why should I believe we’ll be any better at dealing with a changing climate?). One concern here is that buildings are not designed to reflect summer heat, they are built more to absorb meagre winter solar radiation, and they are designed to retain heat, which means they are ok in the winter, but can turn into saunas in a summer heatwave. At the moment, really unpleasantly hot heatwaves don’t last more than about a week at a time, but that could easily change in the future. It is not just about heat either. If winters become more stormy, we need to think about improving our building standards to make structures more resiliant to high winds. At the moment it doesn’t take much of a windstorm to cause major transport disruption, often because overhead rail lines fail (although saturated transport networks are a major factor as well).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53601257
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57487943
Rain on the Greenland ice sheet? Oh, well, good.
:-/
https://twitter.com/climate_ice/status/1408087602356436997
And Hungary hits 40C (104F) for the first time ever.
Joy.
:-(
And the drought in the US Southwest? Don’t worry! Be happy! I wonder if my brothers remember me telling them to prepare several years ago?
https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/22/22545107/satellite-images-california-drought-water-esa
Reality Check @135 doubles down on this crazy idea we have done enough scientific research on the climate issue because apparently theres obviously a problem and we know enough. Scientists can put away their instruments and become activists or whatever. We dont know enough. We need better knowledge and more certainty to prepare. Things like sea level rise, climate sensitivity and behaviour of the jet stream are not 100% certain and if we are to plan cities for the future we need as much certainty as possible. In fact if you just project the climate trends as Reality check suggests, then sea level rise doesn’t look like an issue. Its the fact that science postulates an acceleration (and very convincingly) thats important and it would be useful to know exactly how much acceleration.
Science also exists to have knowledge and understanding and CERTAINTY for its own sake. It was not invented to just solve environmental problems. Reality check should do a reality check on his crazy ideas.
118 – zebra
“It would have been nice if for the last 30-odd years, the concept of “energy (im)balance” had been used by scientists in communicating with the public about climate.”
For several years at least, the imbalance was shown as ~0.6 W/m^2 on the energy balance diagrams. Of course that isn’t mentioned in the news. I don’t have a gut feel for how much heating this would produce but a simple calc using the mass and specific heat of the air, water, and land that are heated by that 0.6 W/m^2 would be interesting. Sounds like real climate science to me. NASA diagram indicating 0.6 W/m^2. Whoever gets the Nobel Prize for doing this calculation can split the monetary proceeds with me for coming up with the idea.
;)
125 – David B. Benson
“Yakutia, eastern Siberia, is burning 24/7/52. In the winter months the fires smolder in the permafrost and peat.”
Same in northern North America since at least the 70s that I am aware of. Similar smoldering fires occur in coal mines and coal seams.
130 – Oxyaena
“Who could’ve imagined a world where water would become a scarce resource? Well, that’s the reality we find ourselves living in. Wars in the not-so-distant future will be fought over water instead of or in addition to oil”
Been fighting over water in the Western US since it was settled by Europeans. Still doing it today but not with bullets usually. Sierra Club and others have warned about it for decades.
138 – Tom Adams and 141 – nigelj
Agree with Tom – I think the Republicans should make some concessions on AGW.
Nigel: “What worries me is if the population STILL can’t make the connection between global warming and changes in precipitation, after literally decades of explanation, when will they ever?
This is why we might need to also focus on other strategies to motivate climate action, like the wider benefits of climate change mitigation policies for example things like the benefits of clean energy grids for health, etc,etc.”
I don’t think health is a big concern – our energy is fairly clean unless you are referring to high temperatures. I think more people on the right side of the political spectrum are beginning to realize that AGW may be real. The problem in the US is that up to this point, only the Dem party has talked it up, and they have lost all credibility with 1/2 the people due to their extreme stances on things like censoring people on social media, denial of right to self defense tools, teaching kids that all Whites are racist, teaching them that perversion is to be celebrated even more so than “normal” behavior, teaching them that if a boy says he is a girl then you have to agree with him or else you are a bigot, open borders, destroying historical statues, teaching that our history is awful when in reality it is no different than most of the world and better than much of it, claiming minorities are too stupid to get an ID so they can vote legally, and the list goes on and on and on. FYI: I don’t care how bad AGW gets I will never vote Dem (and I was one for a long time) as long as they are certifiably nuts – and that is EXACTLY what they are today. It is a very serious problem in the USA.
144 – Killian
“And the drought in the US Southwest?”
Colorado flood threat bulletin 6-24-2021:
https://www.coloradofloodthreat.com/
Steeeerike one!
;)
144- Killian
“Rain on the Greenland ice sheet?”
At what elevation? As those on the Titanic can attest, the ice sheet extends to sea level in at least a few places. Rain in those locations would not be unusual. Steeeerike two!
144 – Killian
“And Hungary hits 40C (104F) for the first time ever.”
From Wikipeida:
“Temperature extremes are 41.9 °C (107.4 °F) on 20 July 2007 at Kiskunhalas in the summer and −35 °C (−31.0 °F) on 16 February 1940 Miskolc-Görömbölytapolca in the winter.”
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungary#Climate
Steeeerike three and he’s outta here! Score 1 for the climate criminal!
:)
118 – Zebra
OOPS, forgot the link to the NASA energy balance diagram showing 0.6 W/m^s absorbed:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#/media/File:The-NASA-Earth's-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg
Date on that diagram appears to be 2009, so it’s not new.
w 142: Our mission is to deliver knowledge to the people in a easy way coving all the verticals (Education, Jobs, News, Business, Health, Astrology, Entertainment, Real Estate, Devotion) of the of the world
BPL: Really? Astrology? And you thought you’d find people interested by posting in a science blog? Are you by any chance a program rather than a person?
Western Hiker: how bout one commenter a month is assigned to correcting KIA, for the
RtW: sheer joy of it? To dissect KIA’s slop as an Official Public Service (probably need a virtual badge). It’d be like winning the lottery.
Your idea. You want to babysit KIA first?
Reality Check: The documentary highlights how nations rallied back in the 1980s to stop using the chlorine-based chemicals that
RtW: had little value on billionaires’ books. But fossil fuel reserves? Somebody’s getting scalped unless we continue to do the far right thing by baking off the current biosphere.