This month’s open thread on climate science issues.
A lot of interest in the new Resplandy et al paper (WaPo), with some exploration of the implications on twitter i.e.
Interesting new paper “Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition”
But I’m not sure about their argument on the consequences on future warming. 1/https://t.co/g29m3SzIvN— Reto Knutti (@Knutti_ETH) November 1, 2018
and
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1057944837163491328
Meanwhile, the CMIP6 model output is starting to come out…
#The effect of lessened gravity in the tropics on satellite data.#
Gravity at the Equator is quoted as being 0.5% less than at other latitudes due to the equatorial bulge combined with increased “centrifugal force”.
Could this 0.5% reduction in gravity affect the physics of data collection in any significant way in equatorial, or even tropical, regions?
As temperature measuring satellites cross the Equator, they would become slightly lighter, and so would gain a small amount of altitude, before dropping back to their previous altitude.
In gaining altitude, would it be the case that they would measure a slightly cooler section of the atmosphere, and a very slightly warmer section of the stratosphere?
My question is motivated out of curiosity about the apparent discrepancy between observed and modeled trends in the tropical atmosphere, which I understand are minor, but still an irritant.
Any thoughts about this suggestion are gratefully received, and if this gravitational effect is already integrated into the computations as a standard item, I apologise for being an ignorant medic.
Nemesis
“These socalled “elites” are struggeling with death, they reach out for immortality, they are strugelling with what’s in it for everyone, rich or poor:”
But don’t most people struggle with death? We are monkeys and we are all programmed to fear death, rich and poor alike.
People try to get rich partly to reduce the chances of dying, – eg health insurance. Is that so wrong?
I hope you aren’t just envious of rich people.
However it’s obvious that inequality can get too high, and be economically damaging, and is very unjust, but attempts to make everyone financially equal have been failures, because it goes against human monkey nature. The most REALISTIC thing we could do is try to keep inequality within a certain limited band.
I do agree with many of your views by the way.
Worth a look:
===================
@nigelj, #202
” But don’t most people struggle with death?”
Might be^^ BUT:
Most people don’t try to escape death by hoarding funny money resp the funny accumulation of material wealth ;) At least, I don’t :)
” We are monkeys and we are all programmed to fear death, rich and poor alike.
People try to get rich partly to reduce the chances of dying, – eg health insurance. Is that so wrong?”
Yes, programmed by the capitalist system to fear death. But you need to consider the following:
REAL monkeys, REAL animals don’t fear death, because they don’t have a clue about death. They fear hunger, pain, heat, cold, whatever, but they cannot fear what they don’t have any clue about. You need any abstract concept about some possible death “in the future”. From the perspective of any individual, Death is never now, it’s always some concept about some condition in the future. Animals just don’t have that kind of abstract concepts about the future, they act purely instinctively in the here and now. Some human monkeys got the abstract concept about death in the future being some “no- thingness”, while others got some concept about death in the future being some kind of “heaven” or “hell” and stuff like that. But real monkeys, animals don’t have any such concepts at all.
And about reducing the chances of dying you mentioned:
How much money do you actually need to reduce the chances of dying to some statistical optimum? Hundreds of thousands of dollars? Millions? Billions? Even trillions and gazillions? You actually see: Chances of dying are not completely correlated to the amount of money you got :’D Have you heard about that funny billionaire crossing some street got hit by a bus while counting his money? :’D And, btw: You don’t need to be a billionaire to afford some healh insurance- at least for now.
” I hope you aren’t just envious of rich people.”
Gnahahaha, love you bringing it up :’D Uhm, wouldn’t it be good for beautiful capitalism to have plenty of people who envy these funny rich folks while trying to get there too by hoarding lots of money through hard work and consumption of lots of material shit (and destroy living Earth^^)? :’D The more greed for material shit resp wealth, the better for GDP, the better for beautiful capitalism :) But, sorry, I am no good capitalist, I don’t envy these funny rich folks for a second and I tell you why:
I came to meet Death very early in my childhood, lost my mother when I was 4, lost my father when I was 15, lost one of my brothers when I was 21, lost a lot of friends because of drug addiction, lost another brother because of cancer ect ect. I grew up in the streets, I left home when I was 13. Death lives in my house as long as I can remember and I am thankful as death became my teacher and intimate friend. The best teacher I could imagine. Death always teaches for real, he never lies, he never shows off, he never makes a lot of fuzz, he is always true, always serious, always straight, always Real. He teached me that we are ALL on the way to the boneyard, no matter how much funny money you got, he takes it away, he takes away your mother, your father, your brother and sister and friend and he will take away your children and grandchildren as well. See, he takes away your beloved ones, the most precious gifts you got without hesitation and all your funny money cannot do anything about it. He will take away your house, your yacht, your private yet, your bank account, your stocks, he will take away ALL and EVERYTHING, even flesh and bones. And funny money can’t do shit about it. This is what I gratefully learned from Death.
Wishes create more and ever more wishes, greed creates more and ever more greed, fear of loss creates more and ever more fear of loss. You can own billions and billions and be still not satisfied. Look at these funny little monkey creatures hoarding money while breeding more and ever more wishes, striving for money like vampires hunting for blood. The more these folks own and consume, the more they are responsible for the exploitation and destruction of the ecosphere, no way around that. You think I envy these restless, ever thirsty vampires? My meditation place has always been the graveyard, death is my teacher. I get rid of wishes by reducing wishes as much as I can, not by hoarding funny money. And this way I gain inner peace, satisfaction, freedom worth more than silver and gold and diamonds. Meditate Death for years and decades every single day, every single minute and you will realize dead seriously:
I don’t envy any of these rich folks for a second, instead, I’m very sorry for them, the more they own, the more they will lose.
You know, I love trees, I love animals (even monkeys), I love the ocean, the stars, the sun, the moon, the universe, stillness, solitude, music, chess, a glass of red whine and some beautiful joint in the evening. And I love life and death. Yes, I love death, my powerful teacher and intimitate friend from whom I learned so much unvaluable things you can never ever buy with funny money.
One last reminder for now:
IF death is really just funny No- thingness, then what the fuck is there to fear about death at all?!
No- thing.
” Death does not concern us, because as long as we exist, death is not here. And when it does come, we no longer exist.”
– Epicurus
@Carrie, #200
Thanks very much for that one^^
Why is it that atmospheric CO2 doesn’t dissolve into mist and rain, in the lower atmosphere?
Richard Lawson @201,
There is no need to appologise. The UAH satellite data when first published showed an entirely ficticious global cooling of the atmosphere because the muppets behind thus UAH work had forgotten to factor in the declining orbits of satellites, and with replacement satellites being callibrated against their predecessor the cooling measurements appeared seemlessly, until others spotted the error and corrected it for them. (In truth, errors in the UAH satellite data have been identified and corrected by outside agents rather too often.)
The 0.5% you mention is a value that will not actually trouble satellites. It even contains a factor which isn’t actually gravity at all.
The numbers showing the 0.5% variation and presented as concerning ‘gravity’ at the poles and the equator result from two centrafugal effects of the Earth’s rotation. “Gravitational acceleration” is given as “9.7803 metres per second squared at the equator and 9.8322 m/s2 at the poles” according to New Scientist, and this yields the 0.5% or 0.0519ms^-2 difference.
But this difference in acceleration is derived from the differing weights of a mass at these two terrestrial locations. At the poles this comprises purely gravitational acceleration but at the equator the centrapedal force is some 0.03ms^-2 and this reduces the weight of an object on the Earth’s surface at the equator. So the 0.5% comprises 0.3% of direct centrafugal effect and 0.2% of gravitational acceleration.
The other factor in the pole/equator difference is due to the bulging of the equator, itself caused by the rotation of the planet. Relative to the bulging equator, the flattened poles are some 21km closer to the centre of the planet and this is easily enough to provide an extra 0.2% difference in surface gravity.
A satellite orbiting above will encounter variations in gravity caused by the bulging shape of the Earth (as well as the bobbly features of the surface as mapped by Grace) but these surely would have a very small effect on a satelites orbit. And even if these were significant for the likes of UAH temperature measurements, the shape of the Earth is unchanging and the likes of UAH is measuring anomalies so will be unaffected by an unchanging orbital variation.
Nemesis,
“to deal with the anxiety of knowing that they will one day die, people hold on to cultural values that allow them to feel that their lives are meaningful”
Or, more in line with what science (and logic) tells us:
“people hold on to cultural values that allow them to feel that their lives are meaningful”
And, depending on circumstance, this manifests itself in different ways.
One of the sets of cultural values, which is incorporated into personality through early formative experience and indoctrination, can be labeled Authoritarian– very much parallel to what goes on in the chimp troop. Unfortunately, this characteristic strongly exists in a large part of the human population.
Again, this occurs long before awareness of mortality is in any way a factor– we know that, for the most part, young people perceive themselves “immortal”– their thinking is very short-term.
https://www.cjr.org/brown_institute/climate-change-food-journalism.php
#197, Killian–
Thanks for that link. Calls for quantification to know how much that is going to affect carbon fluxes going forward–which I take it they’ll be working toward–but good news, it ain’t.
nigel, #202–
“We are monkeys and we are all programmed to fear death, rich and poor alike.”
I actually don’t think it’s that simple. After all, suicide is a significant cause of death around the world, and has been persistent over both time and a wide cultural diversity–some cultures try to ban it, some celebrate it in some circumstances at least. None, to my knowledge, are completely ignorant of it.
Yes, there is clearly an innate biological instinct to preserve one’s physical integrity from various threats, but it’s equally clear that we share that with all manner of animals who presumably don’t really understand death per se. So in humans, it’s more complicated than being ‘programmed,’ if by that one understands a biological mechanism. (Cultural ‘programming’ is clearly a ‘thing’, right?)
I think philosophical acceptance of one’s mortality is possible at an emotional as well as cognitive level, and I think that Nemesis has a point in linking hubris to rejection of such an option–and has a point in calling the result pathological.
Here’s my musical pronunciamento on the topic:
https://soundcloud.com/doc-snow/nobody-gets-out-of-here-alive
Sometimes I even think I’ve achieved a fair degree of emotional acceptance of my pending, personal death myself–though I suspect I won’t actually know that for sure until the relevant day arrives. (And yes, I’m hoping that won’t be for a while yet.)
Many links to worthwhile perspectives here:
https://www.metafilter.com/177940/dystopic-utopianism
Re #212 Hank Roberts said Many links to worthwhile perspectives here:
I am reminded of a documentary I saw on a little-known society in what is now Peru that destroyed itself by building ever more and ever-larger pyramids to get the gods to bring some rain, or something like that. Humans commoditized.
Brilliant, humanity, just freakin’ brilliant.
Sigh…
And this: I think we have this responsibility to continue to articulate a hopeful, positive vision of the future.
Why is it only ever greater complexity and consumption are the only way to have a hopeful, positive future? In no way, shape, or form are current economics-focused societies happier and more hopeful than simpler ones. It’s a lie we are constantly fed but has no basis in fact.
Is a happier, more hopeful tech-based future possible? Maybe. But we have to survive first. I have expressed extreme displeasure with NTHE proponents, and for good reason: They do as much to prevent mitigation and adaptation as any denialist. However, the dire predictions are getting alarmingly close to reality. No, we won’t all be dead in eight years, but the possibility we have crossed tipping points that might lead to that in a hundred or two hundred years looks frighteningly plausible day by day.
Our response must be massive, it must be global, it must be rapid, but it cannot be tech-based. Some of you may remember my example to nigelj regarding bauxite and aluminum. Pick any physical resource and you can do your own extrapolations. Zebra is right that population is the ultimate limit no matter what consumption level we choose. I remind you of the eternal mouse living on a cheese planet; at some point, the cheese has become a planet of excrement and the eternal mouse not so eternal.
Simplicity first. Maintain R&D – focused on sane, useful tech like asteroid/meteor killing tech and mining the solar system, but get over the short term love of luxury. It’s killing almost everything. Defer those electric dreams a few generations, get simple, get happy, get hopeful, then, just maybe, we can send a Picard out to seek new worlds.
It’s a great time to be a jellyfish, though.
Re #210 Kevin McKinney said #197, Killian–
Thanks for that link. Calls for quantification to know how much that is going to affect carbon fluxes going forward–which I take it they’ll be working toward–but good news, it ain’t.
A key justification all these years for my far-more-pessimistic-than-IPCC-IV views of rates of change and calls for a WWII-style global response to GW/CC was the simple observation there is precious little hysteresis in the system. I see people get all tied up in tertiary – and further afield – issues and skip right over the First Principles types of things… like almost no hysteresis in a non-linear/chaotic system. The dinosaurs and some regionally isolated populations through history have had to deal with bolide impacts, but other than those, this rate of change has just never happened before on a global scale with everything deteriorating at the same time because we are digging up, plowing over, tearing down, polluting, burning, eating… everything.
Nothing else matters if we’ve already passed irreversible tipping points. It’s time to do the NTHE Dance Party in that case.
So… let’s simplify, shall we?
generic commenter @206
Actually it does dissolve into mist and rain, but the quantity removed that way is very small.
Nemesis @204, chimps may have come conscious conceptualisation about death.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_consciousness
However the point is humans and animals are genetically programmed to want to survive, avoid pain, etc and wealth and materialism will help maximise this (although people seek wealth and power for many different reasons) . Saying materialism is wrong is akin to saying survival is wrong (not that you are saying this, just thinking aloud).
Yes I agree we don’t need to be millionaires to robustly reduce risks in our life. There can be something odious about extreme wealth especially if it is squandered on absurd things, like your example of Egyptian Pharoas building pyramids, basically a sort of death cult. Like anything wealth accumulation can become an unhealthy obsession, so many books about it through history Dickens etc.
I do not personally feel motivated to be a billionaire, and I chose a career with good money, but largely because of its job satisfaction potential. I could have earned much, much better money. However by global standards I’m still pretty rich. Yet as I have got older its the simple things in life and nature that I get a lot of pleasure from.
I just dont know if generalising about rich people does much. Bill Gates gives billions away to worthy causes, the Koch Brother spend a fortune opposing climate science and trying to further their ridiculous, impractical Ayn Randian vision of very small government. So different. Chalk and cheese.
It’s really a question of are the obsessions of the mega rich damaging society (as I alluded to ) and if so what do we do about it? Otherwise its just arm waving.
Keven McKinney @211
“I think philosophical acceptance of one’s mortality is possible at an emotional as well as cognitive level, and I think that Nemesis has a point in linking hubris to rejection of such an option–and has a point in calling the result pathological.”
Agreed. Its how some of us at least deal with the issue, to reduce anxiety. Nothing wrong with this, unless it turns into some form of nihilism early in life.
Zebra
Authoritarianism may go deeper than just being culturally learned. Refer moral foundations theory.
Some beautiful good news^^:
The first gasoline station in Germany had to be closed because of the extreme drought (supply shortfall). Gnahaha, the car drivers claimed that the funny recent price increase of 8 – 10 cent for gasoline is due to the “left-green-filthy communist” german government conspiracy (no joke^^), ROFL. You know, I LOVE this drought as I’m very curious when the last ignorant will wake up in the beautiful cooking pot of Nature 38) Look at that outlandish picture:
http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=37937
Yeah, it’s ALL the fault of the global left-green-filthy communist conspiracy, ROFL. Hail capitalism!, hail the free market!, hail the natural right to hoard funny money and to consume as much as possible in the beautiful cooking pot of Nature!, yum yum 38=P
201 – Richard
Good question. I’m guessing that reduced gravity is experienced at the surface of the earth, not at the altitude of a satellite, which I would think is fairly constant above the center of the earth. Seems like, if anything, the gravitational pull on a satellite at the equator would be greater because there is more earth mass directly below it due to the bulge???? I’m guessing. :)
204 – Nemesis
“How much money do you actually need to reduce the chances of dying to some statistical optimum? Hundreds of thousands of dollars? Millions? Billions? Even trillions and gazillions?…”
Most folks want to be reasonably comfortable in their older years; money allows old feeble people to pay for help do many things. If you don’t have employer provided health insurance, it costs a lot as you get older. Currently the only policies available are ACA policies for the most part. To have a policy similar to one provided by a middle-class employer when you reach your 60s is getting close to $1000 per month per person. That’s a lot, and does not include the $5,000 deductible or whatever it is. If you retire at age 60, and need say $40,000/yr to live comfortably, and if you live to age 90 you’ll need $1.2 million. That is a lot of money for most people, and counting inflation, medical/other emergencies, long term care, is probably not even 1/2 of what you’d really want. Tough numbers for most folks, so my recommendation is to quit knocking people for wanting to save for the future, and start saving for YOUR future. I need to do the same.
I remember lots and lots of discussions I had online about massive global insect decline. When the disturbing study from Krefeld/Germany about a 75% decline of insect biomass over 27 years came out roughly one year ago, the usual suspects yelled “Stop that fear mongering, these guys at Krefeld have no clue, we hold up REAL science!”, exactly like the usual suspects do about fossil fuel induced climate heating and what have you. They will soon be enlightened by some rather ugly consequences:
” 27.11.2018 – The Insect Apocalypse is here – What does it mean for life on Earth”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/magazine/insect-apocalypse.html
I see the disturbing decline of insect biomass with my very own eyes for several years, I realized it years before the Krefeld study came out. Damned, modern man makes big, “clever” palaver about monkeys, about how Nature works and shit, but doesn’t realize what’s happening in Nature in front of his very own eyes?! WTF?! He will, I bet, he will.
N 204: programmed by the capitalist system to fear death.
BPL: You mean people in the Roman Empire or feudal Europe didn’t fear death?
gc 206: Why is it that atmospheric CO2 doesn’t dissolve into mist and rain, in the lower atmosphere?
BPL: CO2 does enter rain, and as a result rain is slightly acidic, at pH 5.6.
http://www.lancetcountdown.org/the-report
“The Lancet Countdown’s 2018 report tracks 41 indicators across five key domains in health and climate change, continuously strengthening its methods, data and analysis. It arrives at three key conclusions:”
“IMPACT: Present day changes in heat waves labour capacity, vector-borne disease, and food security provide early warning of compounded and overwhelming impacts expected if temperature continues to rise.”
Etcetera. The website has a link to the full report.
Ladies & gentlemen, to make a short story short:
Just defend the right to make money as long as you can. You can read I guess :’D:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/magazine/insect-apocalypse.html
See you at the boneyard soon and, please, don’t forget to bring all your money, the more, the better. Kind regards from my teacher.
With kind regards from my teacher:
And Yama (the lord of Death) said:
” Fools dwelling in darkness, but thinking themselves wise and erudite, go round and round, by various tortuous paths, like the blind led by the blind.
The Hereafter never reveals Itself to a person devoid of discrimination, heedless and perplexed by the delusion of wealth. “This world alone exists”, he thinks, “and there is no other.” Again and again he comes under my sway.” ”
– Katha Upanishad
See you there.
@nigelj, #216
” Its how some of us at least deal with the issue, to reduce anxiety.”
Anxiety in the face of WHAT?! Anxiety in the face of NOTHINGNESS ?! Complete bs. I’m not afraid of your funny materialist monkey nothingness after death, in fact, I laugh about that absurd anxiety in the face of nothingness, I laugh about nothingness. There’s absolutely no reason to fear nothingness, because if your materialist nothingness holds true, then you will NEVER EVER experience any such nothingness, you will simply be GONE when nothingness strikes :’D
But WHAT if there isn’t any funny thing like nothingness after death?^^ What if nothingness is just what it is?!: NOTHING.
What if the heat, the FIRE of endless craving goes on after death?^^ What if endless hunger, endless thirst for being goes on when flesh and bones are done? What if the infinite chain of cause and effect goes on after flesh and bones are done? Hellyeah, that might the only thing to fear I swear.
So, you see, I don’t fear nothingness for a second, but I fear that your nothingness is just some monkey bubble and the fire of craving might go on when flesh and bones are done. Yeah, that’s what I fear. And I will be proven right.
Re Nemesis #219
Made a video
Ecological Armageddon! Insects Vanish All over the World https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAOnySPnt3E
@BPL, #220
” You mean people in the Roman Empire or feudal Europe didn’t fear death?”
You mean, the roman empire or feudal europe didn’t hoard funny material shit exactly like capitalism does for the very same reason? Have fun:
https://arrow-journal.org/is-a-fear-of-death-at-the-heart-of-capitalism/
https://medium.com/@IdleMatts/capitalism-and-how-it-takes-advantage-of-your-death-anxiety-33029f0a0b9e
Let’s turn the beautiful spear the other way around:
Can capitalism, can Empire work WITHOUT fear of death? Would the workers obey without any fear of death? Would the slaves obey without any fear of death? Would the herd work and consume like crazy without any fear of death? Without any fear of death there would be no obidience and therefore there would be no slaves and no masters :)
You think I hate capitalism? Think again^^ In fact, I LOVE capitalism, because capitalism will die by it’s very own hand, so there’s absolutely no reason to hate capitalism nor to fight capitalism (see, I’m no funny, harmless communist^^), I just let capitalism work it’s very own fate to it’s very own End. I love to see capitalism entertaining me while digging it’s very own grave and I won’t stop it, I love to see the funny rich elite digging their very own grave and I won’t stop them, in fact, let me encourage them holeheartedly- I’m begging you PLEASE:
Grab, steal, hoard, ignore the facts as much and as long you can, don’t stop ! And, finally, I’ll be very amused and patiently waiting for you at the end of the road. Meanwhile:
Just go on entertaining me to my very pleasure as you did my whole life, I LOVE IT 8)
https://youtu.be/B6Ta3H-ck6s
Thank you MARodger @207 and Mr KIA @218 for your thoughts. I feel a bit better informed, though at the same time I feel even more ignorant.
I take your point MA Rodger about the anomalies being the important part, just as the UHI effect doesn’t affect the anomalies in temperature. Except that, if there is a tiny variation in gravity every time the satellites pass over the equator, could it not produce a bias in the record specifically relating to the tropics?
I can see that the centrifugal component of diminished gravity at the Equator would not affect the satellites because they are on a trajectory roughly following the latitudes and going from pole to pole (have I got that right?).
There would be a tiny effect from the increased gravity as a result of passing over the equatorial bulge. The satellites are about 700km (are they not?) above the surface. The radius of the Earth is 6371 km, so the distance of a satellite from the centre of the earth is only 11% further than that of an object on the surface of the planet.
I am sorry to say I do not know how to calculate the exact amount that the satellite would lose in altitude and gain in speed each time it passes over the equator, but it is a number, even if it is a very small one, and given that the data from the satellite is already subject to a vast amount of calculation before it makes it to our screens, there would surely be no harm in inserting one more set of equations into the mix, just to bring the results more in line with reality?
217 – Nemesis said:
“The first gasoline station in Germany had to be closed because of the extreme drought (supply shortfall).”
Why would a drought result in a gasoline station closing? No hydro power, perhaps?
https://www.abroadintheyard.com/if-doggerland-had-not-drowned/
@Chris, #226
Thanks for the hint, I’ve seen that video already as soon as it came out, I usually go to youtube and google once every day for years and search for insect mass die-off ;)
Btw, there was an article at National Geographic online with the interesting title “Mass extinction of insects may go undected” from 2005, that was 13 years ago, funnily enough it’s gone now. See, that’s the kinda shit we are dealing with and I’m sick and tired of it, I don’t give a f* cent for the chatter of politicians and big funny bosses of the economy (the socalled “elite”), neither in the past nor in the present nor in a million years- may everyone pull his on conclusions from it, I pulled mine decades ago and I’m glad I did. Next stop:
Hell. Then Boneyard.
… but hey, death is just No- Thing- ness according to clever monkey science(?), so what, No- Thing- ness doesn’t mean that much, does it, nigelj?