Thomas at 136. Wow, amazing videos of noctilucent clouds. Are you sure that this type of cloud is methane or strongly related to methane somehow?
How about it, Gavin or Stefan et al? Noctilucent clouds, methane release report from the Siberian Times, record warmth, record ice loss, etc…
Should we be worried yet?
LT at 143: yes, we, the human community. Even those of us who haven’t been able to churn out a lot of CO2 would generally do it if the opportunity arose. Those of us who have churned out our fair share and have cut back are still over the line in terms of equity to other species and generations to come. We, the human race, are cooking the planet with CO2 imho. Raise your hand if you think you have exceeded your lifetime CO2 budget.
Mike
Tony Weddlesays
Nemesis, you misunderstood. I didn’t say it was “just natural variability”. You quoted me, so I’m not sure why you got it wrong. I said the effects are variable. I was shocked by the lack of songbirds and insects 4 years ago in the UK but this year it was much much better. It’s variable but the downturn in all wildlife is worrying, very worrying. As for my comment on the decline not yet being due to climate change, well, this is a climate change blog.
Thomassays
Insects and Climate change?
“Different insect guilds respond differently to hot summers, which sometimes result in an increase in density and sometimes a decrease. These effects may occur immediately or be delayed by 1 or 2 years.
“As long as the regime remains unchanged, the affected population can recover sooner or later. Even a single-year change in climate, however, if it allows predators to outbreak, may be strong enough to cause a regime shift.
:Most insects are susceptible to heat stress between 28 and 32 °C, global warming could have a more profound impact on the population dynamics and biodiversity of arthropods than has previously been predicted.” http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13355-012-0158-y
Butterflies: Ecology and Evolution Taking Flight
By Carol L. Boggs, Ward B. Watt, Paul R. Ehrlich https://goo.gl/NboQpW
Climate change already appears to be accelerating the seasonal development of some insects (Fleming and Tatchell, 1994). Forecasts based on historical relationships between outbreak patterns and climate in specific areas are likely to predict change as the climate in those areas changes. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=559
Logically, and considering the absence of complete research of such matters, it should be self evident that IF climate change can increase species it also has the capacity to DECREASE species. It all “depends” now doesn’t it .. where when what species and how they are imapcted by shifting regional climate scenarios.
Being unaware of the extent of the latest research in a narrowly defined biological field does not mean that empirical evidence does not exist.
Scott Stroughsays
Nemesis,
You got the cart before the horse on that one, ecological destruction is more of one source, a forcing, a reinforcing feedback, and a diminishing stabilizing feedback of AGW. Rather than the other way around.
In other words, yes there are mutual interconnected nuances, but AGW did not cause these problems with birds and insects, agriculture did that. Rather directly by both killing them with pesticides, and by destroying habitat. And agriculture is one of many causes of AGW. Now we do see AGW multiplying the effect, but important you make sure to understand the root cause.
Thomas, #147–Thanks for your response Yes, the politics of energy is tangled. No, we are not likely to get perfection in dealing with it. (Actually, that this a ‘done deal,’ since in a perfect world, we wouldn’t be anywhere near so far behind the mitigation curve as we are now.)
However, as Samuel Johnson famously said, “…when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”
National governments are coming to that realization.
We do not have the same calibre of national leaders nor the same level of character in societies that existed back then.
To indulge in a bit of OT rambling, I must respectfully disagree. Not that today’s leaders are uniformly wonderful–rather that yesterday’s were just as humanly flawed. Consider the legendary leaders of the WW II era.
Churchill no doubt displayed wit, eloquence, determination, courage and imagination. However, he was also close-minded, arrogant, bullheaded, a bit of a lush betimes, and very much blinkered by the orthodoxies of his time and place. (Particularly troublesome to the body politic in this regard was his cultural racism, which very much complicated ‘the India question.’) One of his famous quotes was a statement to the effect that you can always count on America to do the right thing–after it has tried every alternative. He himself did a fair bit of ‘exploring alternatives’ in this sense. (“Soft underbelly of Europe,” anyone?)
Or Roosevelt, a master communicator who maintained a clear vision of what was truly important, even while navigating very choppy political waters. Yet he could be indecisive, even vacillating, and, like the Clintons today, seems to have had a somewhat troubled relationship with the truth. He was definitely a womanizer; if you read the biography, it’s hard to escape the feeling that Eleanor deserved much better than she received from Franklin.
Human nature hasn’t changed. Heroic feet always have had some admixture of clay. Yet they do manage to ‘get there’, often enough.
And NOAA has also now posted for September with an anomaly of +0.89ºC, the second hottest September on record after 2015 & the =11th warmest anomaly in the full record.
The average anomaly for 2016-to-date is running at +0.996ºC, just a smidgeon above the average for the last 12-months of +1.003ºC and still running above the average for the last calendar year (also presently the record calendar year) of +0.90ºC. Thus the remainder of 2016 would have to average above +0.62ºC to gain the ‘warmest calendar year’ accolade. (The most recent year with last 3 months’ average below +0.62ºC was 2012.) Only three of the 21 months of 2015 & 2016-so-far are not top 20 anomalies. This is lower than in GISTEMP where eight of the 21 months of 2015 & 2016-so-far are not top 20 anomalies. The difference is mostly because 2015 was warmer within NOAA than it was within GISTEMP, a situation also reflected in the higher average anomaly required for 2016 to gain ‘hottest year on record’ status within the NOAA record.
The anomalies for 2015/16 and their rankings within the full record are as follows:-
2015 … 1 … 0.82ºC … = 24th
2015 … 2 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
2015 … 3 … 0.90ºC … = 9th
2015 … 4 … 0.78ºC … = 33rd
2015 … 5 … 0.86ºC … = 18th
2015 … 6 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2015 … 7 … 0.81ºC … .. 26th
2015 … 8 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2015 … 9 … 0.93ºC … .. 8th
2015 .. 10 … 0.99ºC … .. 6th
2015 .. 11 … 0.97ºC … .. 7th
2015 .. 12 … 1.12ºC … .. 3rd
2016 … 1 … 1.05ºC … .. 5th
2016 … 2 … 1.19ºC … .. 2nd
2016 … 3 … 1.23ºC … .. 1st
2016 … 4 … 1.08ºC … .. 4th
2016 … 5 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2016 … 6 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
2016 … 7 … 0.86ºC … = 18th
2016 … 8 … 0.90ºC … = 9th
2016 … 9 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
Brian Blagdensays
Hi Nemesis,
Thanks for the response and links to items on the decline in insects. You are correct – there are a myriad of causes in the apparent decline of insects and other invertebrates, chief among which will be urbanisation, poor agricultural practice, and forestation…although many other causes are implicated. However, despite the many reports and articles pointing to a ‘crisis’ I have not seen any such decline in number or variety of species visiting my garden over the last 18 years. Actually, this is not true – there was a quite considerable increase in species and number of individuals during the first few years – as the plants we put in our garden, deliberately to attract insects, started to mature. But otherwise, apart from yearly fluctuations where numbers were either down or there was an overabundance, numbers have changed little. Of course this is my subjective opinion and I have no numeric data to support what I’m saying (capture and release or otherwise trapping in malaise traps is beyond my ability and budget).
The point I’m trying to make is that numbers will fluctuate from one year to the next, wet years bring fewer insects, dryer and brighter years more. This is also reflected from day to day. On wet, dull or windy days you will find fewer insects, whereas on dry, bright days, particularly following a few days of rain, insects will be numerous. Location is also important. I live in a small town surrounded by a mix of intensive arable, pasture, broadleaf woodland, and commercial pine plantations at the edge of the Grampian mountains – as a consequence the variety of habitats is reflected in the abundance of species and number of insects visiting my garden. However, I work in the City of Aberdeen where there is a disappointing lack of insects. Where, when and how you monitor is therefore vitally important – but it does depend on what story you want to tell. Remember this story of extinction? http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/wildlife/article4212524.ece
As I said, I doubt that Germany has lost 80% of its insects…20%, 30% maybe, particularly in urban areas but I would hazard that the distribution is patchy and that in some areas there has been no overall decrease and in others possibly an increase. If Germany has indeed lost 80% of its insects then it should be given the title of “The Dirty Man of Europe” an accolade previously held by the UK.
Thomassays
I have known for a very long time that the multiple problems surrounding AGW/CC isn’t about the “facts” nor the “science literacy” of the population.
JOhn Cook and many other have focused on the various denial strategies now, after years of trying to make clarifying the facts via his Skeptical Science website – it helped some but has not made a dint in the denialist rhetoric.
Every climate science denier online thinks Skeptical Science is a JOKE, and juts another example of the politically motivated left to lie and cheat and misrepresent the facts .. the typical conspiracy bs.
The thing is, being caught inside a conspiratorial thinking bubble is of itself a psychological / cognitive issue and not one about the facts. The facts the truth the reality are all irrelevant.
Recent post here from Prof Jerry Kroth again confirms this. The work by Prof Lakoff confirms this. Hundreds of psychology cognitive science related papers wil confirm this.
Finally there’;s a group formed in Australia to actually help people deal with and communicate effectively with their friends and family about climate science and it’s implications.
Our purpose is to contribute psychological understanding and support within the community, helping people face the difficult climate reality. http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/
Note their headline – FOSTERING EMOTIONAL ENGAGEMENT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE –
That’s very significant. Why? Because pathological narcissists (politicians, corportate execs CEOs and their shareholders, journos, media barons, the wealthy) have a distinct lack of EMPATHY.
As such denialist activists also lack EMPATHY and those who are attracted to denialists websites as commenters and supporters lack EMPATHY.
The #1 Rule is – Lacks Empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others. Lack of empathy is one of the most striking features of people with narcissistic personality disorder. It’s a hallmark of the disorder in the same way that fear of abandonment is in borderline personality disorder. https://www.bpdcentral.com/narcissistic-disorder/hallmarks-of-npd/
Typically there is only about 1% to 2.5% of pathological narcissists in the community. In jails and in business circles it’s closer to 25% (see the research)
You will find these people funding and operating denialist websites as well as commenting on them (and here) and in the process abusing every person who accepts AGW/CC – those silly enough to imagine they can make a difference by “pointing out the facts”.
Like me here now, trying to point out the most important “facts” of what is blocking any significant advance in the world dealing with AGW/CC today – human psychology and especially PSYCHOPATHIC PATHOLOGY aka incipient collective mental illness
You can’t help people (nor even have a rational respectful conversation with them) when they are living in a delusional fantasy and who think it is you who has the problem!
Refuse to call a spade a spade and nothing will change nor be solved. Psychology is both the cause and the solution here.
The alternative is more disgusting arguments on social media sites, then civil war and eventually international war. Because that is where things are heading very fast (much faster than the climate is changing.)
Thomassays
Leading the Public into Emergency Mode: A New Strategy for the Climate Movement.
Our purpose is to contribute psychological understanding and support within the community, helping people face the difficult climate reality. http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/
Thomassays
We are also aware of the ongoing stress borne by those who are active in advocating for action on climate change.
They carry a burden on behalf of a community that is struggling to engage.
We have devised workshops to support these people and their groups and organisations. Our hope is to continue to respond creatively to developing needs within our community. http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/our-work
I hope the climate scientists are aware of these issues and how they can negatively impact them and their families personally. I encourage them to seek appropriate psychological support such as regular counselling to handle the stress. No man or woman is an island – even a climate scientist.
Thomassays
156 Kevin, thanks no probs.
“Human nature hasn’t changed. Heroic feet always have had some admixture of clay. Yet they do manage to ‘get there’, often enough.”
Yep. here’s hoping.
OT side humour, regarding “it’s hard to escape the feeling that Eleanor deserved much better than she received from Franklin.”
I heard Eleanor was a bit of a womaniser herself. ;-)
Thomassays
151 Russell, what is the “disturbing” thing about that to you Kevin?
152 mike, I do not know about those ch4 clouds, I was short of time, couldn’t find anything easy online, so posting it here was to get me something better to go on.
157 MA Rodger This is an interesting little grouping here 1st to 8th greatest monthly analomies –
158 Brian Blagden regarding “…there are a myriad of causes in the apparent decline of insects and other invertebrates, chief among which will be urbanisation, poor agricultural practice, and (de-)forestation…
What a coincidence, those are also a few of the well known drivers for AGW/CC too. :-)
regarding “However, despite the many reports and articles pointing to a ‘crisis’ I have not seen any such decline in number or variety of species visiting my garden over the last 18 years.”
Which is precisely the reason why the scientific method was developed, in order to side-step “personal confirmation bias” by objectively doing the research, collecting the data, and then following that data no matter what one might have expected to be “true”.
One garden does not a scientific study make. Nor one pair of eyes, or even a thousand pairs of eyes.
Woodward and Bernstein were told to follow the money, but science follows the data. :-)
When there is no data, then they need to go out and collect it – and keep following their own instincts as to what data needs collecting.
Despite the positives and all the good studies coming out each and every week now, things are still very grim in my view.
I willing to be surprised though … like all these protests suddenly erupting in paternalistic south america out of the blue (it seems).
” I will not mince words, Mrs. Solberg. Your government’s actions are utterly at odds with the scientific consensus that underpins the Paris Agreement. Norway appears hell-bent on sabotaging the treaty before it has even come into effect. Fortunately, there may be a way to block the actions of what many are beginning to consider a climate rogue state. ” http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20161018_SolbergLetter.pdf
Norway – Keep Calm and Drill On – Foreign Correspondent – ABC
(video/text)
Sep 27, 2016 – Oil-rich Norway has adopted the radical goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2030. But as Eric Campbell reports, there’s a catch http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2016/s4546534.htm
Thomassays
I had to LOL today when I heard Biden’s comments about “a threat to our democratic process.” and “the legitimacy of our democracy,” and the most profound example of delusional disconnection from reality was his comment “attacking the very essence of the notion whether we have a democratic system” coupled with “No democratic process can be sustained without a sense of trust”
Now that’s quite ironic and the funniest saddest thing I have heard for years. What trust? what democracy?
It’s not that hard to work out why there has been so very little progress in confronting agw/cc for decades and such a gigantic system of denial operating in the US ground zero.
An odd coincidence this 2015 doco popped up on netflix today. Pretty much nails why the agw/cc problems are currently unsolvable with only very slow marginal actions being taken. http://requiemfortheamericandream.com Highly recommended for the clear thinking, sane, well informed viewer
cheers :-)
Lawrence Colemansays
159: Thomas: “Finally there’;s a group formed in Australia to actually help people deal with and communicate effectively with their friends and family about climate science and it’s implications.”
I have been involved in a discussion group called Carbon conversations since June in the sunshine coast district. It brought together a small group 5 of us plus our mediator. The entire group incl. me were in their early 50’s and all sharing a grave concern about our planet’s future. It is based on an British format that’s been running for a number of years. I bought the discussion book ‘In time for tomorrow?’ from Rosemary Randall and Andy Brown in the UK before the group kicked off. I was the guy with the facts and figures and a detailed understanding of the physical processes at work re: climate change and it’s implications. Others were more knowledgeable on renewable energies or the social aspect of CC etc. It went for six 3 hour sessions held every other week on Thursday night. We all complemented each other very well. We all were free to speak our minds and discuss our fears. I’ve come to realise that the ol’ adage “knowledge conquers fear” does not relate to Climate change. The more I understand about it the more despair I hold for the planet. It’s a perfect storm that we are not going to sail out the other side of…for probably hundreds of thousands of years. Which lifeforms will survive is anyone’s guess?. Hopefully not humans.
The members of the group were all extremely relieved to discuss the matter with other like minded people, in most cases they couldn’t talk about it to friends or family. I’m also in that category. My wife is quite dismissive about the whole thing but at least I’ve educated my son.
Anyway thought you’d be interested Thomas. Cheers!
Arctic Sea Ice Extent is certainly having an interesting year.
Back in the spring, when the melt begins to make large in-roads into the ice, this year’s melt was a counrty-mile ahead of all previous years (on the satellite record).
The eventual headline minimum monthly figure was not so dramatic, but that was because the ice began a dramatic re-freeze for the second half of September, a re-freeze that came to a sudden halt in October and since then 2016 has shown the least melty October on record. So much so that in the last few days, 2016 has become the least frozen autumn on record, nosing ahead of (or should that be dropping below) 2007, 2011 & 2012 in both JAXA’s (data) and NSIDC’s (interactive graph) daily measurements.
“… this will certainly raise eyebrows about whether or not this breaches the firewall many feel should exist wherein policy agenda should not influence the way that science is done,” Mann told the Guardian via email.
The story of science during World War II is one of partnerships and prolific research. On June 28, 1941, President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 8807which established the Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) “for the purpose of assuring adequate provision for research on scientific and medical problems relating to national defense.” In essence, the OSRD brought together the armed services, civilians, government agencies and industry to prioritize defense-related scientific research. It is important to note that the formation of OSRD happened before the U.S. officially entered the War on December 8, 1941.
Time was of the essence– research needed to be funded and completed at a rapid rate. OSRD mobilized scientific manpower within the country and worked closely with the armed services and allies to identify improvements and inventions needed for national defense. It recruited and funded scientists from educational institutions, research laboratories and a number of industries to help with the war effort. The focus was on weapons, devices, and medicine that could be immediately used in the field by our troops and allies. Under OSRD contracts, these engineers, industrialists, and scientists undertook a wide array of scientific investigations and produced thousands of studies and reports….
” one cannot be handcuffed by data on a fundamental moral issue of this kind…the magic will not be in the precision of specific words the Administration chooses to use …”
To raw expressions of partisan ideology- what the authors term “The Troglodyte Narrative:
×” Dialectic. At the end of the day… one needs to have an organizing platform that defines … the opposition as morally responsible for an issue that threatens the health and welfare of the American people. TR had the plutocrats. FDR fought Fascism. LBJ took on poverty. And Reagan had the Soviets…
× Anti-Basic Science… The power of this approach is that it … fits into what we call the Troglodyte Narrative (anti-women; anti-Latino; anti-gun safety; anti-common sense fiscal policy; and anti-science) that is raising basic trust issues for the Republican Party …
× Frame climate as… You either are a member of our society or you are a social misanthrope.”
In short, the partisan “Masters of Disaster” hired to write it seem bent on turning turn Chris Mooney’s The Republican War on Science into a declaration of War on Republican Scientists.
166 Lawrence Coleman – mate that’s fantastic. Good on you. Can I come along? I’m down the Tweed area but have friends up your way. Can you provide some group contact info please?
These psychological impacts and difficulties in talking about them are very real.
Nemesissays
Find the errors in these news:
” 19.10.2016 – Exxon CEO: world needs oil of five Saudi Arabias by 2040
Rex Tillerson tells industry event oil and gas companies will thrive in coming decades despite climate policies…
“We’re trying to influence and inform people and business on the choices they make.”
Exxon has come under intense pressure in the past year over evidence it ignored warnings from its own scientists of the dangers posed by burning fossil fuels way back in the 1980s.
Leaked internal documents clash with the company’s public position over the past decades and funding of lobbying to cast doubt on the veracity of climate science.
It is facing an inquiry from a coalition of Democrat attorney generals led by New York State’s Eric Schneiderman into what the company knew.
Tillerson avoided mentioning the issue, but insisted the company he has run since 2006 was committed to doing the “right thing the right way”.
“Integrity is in everything we do. It’s the foundation of trust and cooperation. A focus on integrity makes a corporations more effective,” he said.”
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. – Albert Einstein
If American’s want more of the same then go vote for Clinton even though it’s illogical to believe those that have caused the problems are the right people to “fix it”. You would already know that it was the Democrats & Republicans under Pres. Clinton who repealed Glass-Steigel and you all should know by now where that led to – the GFC and government bailouts of corrupt corporate / finance america and social destruction across the nation.
While I disagree with the proposed climate change related actions (these can be worked through later nothing great is happening now anyway), the more important issue that would bring real change to the corrupt political system and anti-climate science agenda in the USA is:-
What would the effect of this be on all the climate science deniers inside Congress IF this was to occur?
—
“FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress”
—
That could mean Goodbye to all the Corporate Proxies inside the Congress such as Jim Inhofe and Lamar Smith.
It would open the door for genuine representatives and senators such as Jim Hansen and Michael Mann to run for Congress in 2018.
and what about:- “FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;”
FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
and 10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics ???
FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
Just sayin’ – not here to argue – He’ll lose no doubt about it – so the only solution for America will become the Civil War v2.0
And do read this “The Philippine Star” Updated October 23, 2016
“President Rodrigo Duterte has two personalities when he speaks depending on his audience. So his speech last Thursday at the Great Hall of China before Filipino and Chinese businessmen was not expected.”
“Duterte’s program of change outside and inside the country is a signal the days of the oligarchy are numbered.” http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2016/10/23/1636366/high-road-china
Many more nations will go the way of the Philippines in the next decade – the empire is over and the winds of change are a blowing – how “hot” they become no one can predict.
But change is coming, it’s unstoppable now – as unstoppable as 2-3C .
Highly recommended doco with Noam Chomsky for the clear thinking, sane, well informed reader – and even better for those still living inside “fantasy land”. http://requiemfortheamericandream.com
Not here to argue, all this IS directly connected to AGW/CC it’s causes and it’s eventual long term solution.
I haven’t run across mention of how old the ice is. Years ago, while circumnavigating Iceland, our ship sailed up to the Greenland ice pack, where we were feted with 3 year old bergy bits–clear, hard, massive, with water as sweet as a spring’s.
A few years later, in the Sixth Extinction, I read that the ice pack depth in some places had declined from 60 feet to 20 feet.
A few years later, we were back in the North, at Svalbard. That year, the polar bear dens in the special study area had plummeted from 50 to 2. Even more shocking to me–in checking our travel options, I had run across a listing for ice breakers that, for a price, took travelers to the North Pole and back. I have to believe those ships are going through young, junky, soft salty ice, not sixty feet of 3 year ice.
Perhaps not, but, if the character of the ice has changed fundamentally, the visual image and tactile sense of those different types of ice would be a compelling way to communicate to a lay person (like me) just how profoundly the sea ice cap has changed.
Thomassays
Consider doing some of your own research into agw/cc realities and US political realities, and see where it takes you.
Jan 2016 Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton “I don’t take money from big banks….You’ve received over $600,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs in one year.”
There are the direct payments to Hillary Clinton’s political campaigns, including for the Senate in 2000 and for the presidency in 2008 and now in 2016, which had reached a total of $712.4 million as of September 30, 2015, the most recent figures compiled by Open Secrets.
ALEC wrote the 3 strikes you’re out laws signed by Bill Clinton – plus the laws that provided federal funds for the private prisons growth and the militarisation of US police forces now blowing up as street protests re #blacklivesmatter movements.
Another David Koch project, Citizens for a Sound Economy —which launched the effort to repeal [BILL CLINTON’s] Glass-Steagall protections keeping banks from gambling in securities—helped fuel the fight for “free trade,” an unpopular policy in the 1980s. [Bill Clinton’s] The North American Free Trade Agreement passed with help from CSE and its corporate allies.
David Koch helped inject the idea of privatizing public schools into the national debate as a candidate for vice president in 1980. A cornerstone of the Libertarian Party platform, which he bankrolled, was the call for “educational tax credits to encourage alternatives to public education,” a plan to the right of Ronald Reagan. https://www.thenation.com/article/alec-exposed-koch-connection/
Contained within WikiLeaks’ recent release of hacked DNC emails is a message from billionaire globalist financier George Soros, to Hillary Clinton while she was U.S. Secretary of State, that clearly reveals Clinton as a puppet of the billionaire class. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/wikileaks-email-soros-clintons-master
Meanwhile “deniers” and anti-AGW/CC “corporate shills” continue to push the lie that Climate scientists are corrupt frauds and involved in a conspiracy to become RICH by lying about their science.
It’s impossible to separate the attacks against climate science and scientists FROM corporate banking funded Super-PACS, and the funding of BOTH Democrat and Republican candidates at all levels of govt, and ALEC, and Bill Clinton in the 1990s and Hillary Clinton today OR and the corrupt biased manipulative MEDIA
As “weird” as Trump and his team are NOT involved with ALEC nor ALEC entwined Republicans like Mit Rommney, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Scot Walker, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Tom Ridge, James Inhofe, Lindsey Graham, Richard Shelby et al.
The truth is always stranger and far worse than fiction – House of Cards (U.S. TV series) deals primarily with themes of ruthless pragmatism, manipulation, murder, and abuse of power.
This is the world in which we live. Make no mistake about that. Try not to drink the Koolaid in the process and falsely believe US voting is a “free choice” between “genuine options” when you do not and never have had access to the whole truth.
Noam Chomsky is a pioneering and world renowned linguist. He is the world’s most frequently cited scholar,/b>, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, and considered one of the founders of cognitive science.
He has authored over 100 books, with his latest titled, “Who Rules the World?” and is currently is Institute Professor Emeritus at MIT.
This talk, presented at Harvard-Epworth Church, Cambridge, MA on May 12, 2016, was the second presentation in Massachusetts Peace Action’s Distinguished Peacebuilders Series.
If you’re not shocked in 2016 then you haven’t been paying attention.
Thomassays
Noam Chomsky is a pioneering and world renowned linguist. He is the world’s most frequently cited scholar,, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, and considered one of the founders of cognitive science.
He has authored over 100 books, with his latest titled, “Who Rules the World?” and is currently is Institute Professor Emeritus at MIT.
This talk, presented at Harvard-Epworth Church, Cambridge, MA on May 12, 2016, was the second presentation in Massachusetts Peace Action’s Distinguished Peacebuilders Series.
“If you’re not shocked in 2016 then you haven’t been paying attention.” Thomas O’Reilly
Leslie Grahamsays
@167 MA Rodger. “Arctic Sea Ice Extent is certainly having an interesting year.”
Not sure if this means anything in any long term context but I was quite startled to see the forecast temperature anomaly for the Arctic later this week (according to Climate Reanalyzer) is set to be +6.36C.
Interesting indeed.
Nemesissays
@Thomas, #172, 175
” Clinton campaign dubs WikiLeaks ‘Russian propaganda’ after latest hack”
Let em go on just for a little while- Mother Nature will teach em soon 3:-)
zebrasays
@ Thomas, with reference to your incessant spamming of the thread.
I’ve suggested in the past that the reason we can’t have a useful discussion of topics that have scientific and engineering and even “social engineering” content but aren’t strictly climate science is that some individuals are incapable of self-control.
I think the moderators realize that there are related topics of great interest– I found Scott’s exposition on agriculture enlightening, whether it is completely accurate in its conclusions or not, for example– but then the reality of people like yourself intrudes.
If you have something of value to say, it shouldn’t be necessary to drown out all the other voices. Doing so diminishes your impact and calls into question whether you have the confidence or the ability to sustain a single rational argument.
@Thomas (172): Are you seriously wishing Donald Trump on the US? Really? I’ll forego the rest of my intended tirade on the hope that you intended that as some kind of obscure satire.
Thomassays
Facing up to the reality of Liars? Science Study shows empirical evidence for a slippery slope of self-serving dishonesty
Confronting the Liars that affect your life is the first step to moving past personal Gullibility. Proven ‘career’ liars do not stop lying. They do not tell the truth about subjects XYZ and only lie about subject A.
New Nature Paper – The brain adapts to dishonesty – Abstract
“Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time.
“Here we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it.”
“The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a ‘slippery slope’: what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger transgressions.”
The more they get away with lying the more they lie about anything and everything without a Conscience and expect to get away with all of their Lies.
Christopher Monckton, Exxon-Mobil, Roy Spencer, Willi Soon, Jennifer Marohasy, Anthony Watts, Dick Cheney, Steven Goddard (pseudonym for Tony Heller), GWPF, most Police, Erdogan, Jim Inhofe, Lehman Brothers, AIG, the NYSE Board, Goldman Sachs, the Saudis and yes, even Barack Obama.
“I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”
October 16 – 22, 2016 401.65 ppm
October 16 – 22, 2015 398.49 ppm
increase of 3.16 ppm in noisy number
Daily CO2
October 24, 2016: 402.27 ppm
October 24, 2015: 398.65 ppm
3.62 ppm increase in really noisy number
This is the ballgame. As long as this number continues to rise, we are in trouble and every ppm increase is deeper trouble. It goes up easy, it comes down hard when considered against the activities of our species.
All in all, the evidence suggests that the present long-term rate of CO2 increase is right around 2.25 ppmv/yr. Alas, there’s no sign of any slowdown in atmospheric CO2 growth; quite the contrary, it’s continuing to accelerate. Although there are brief episodes of faster and slower growth, the best estimate — so far — is near-constant acceleration.
Many nations claim that they have reduced their CO2 emissions rate. But there’s absolutely no evidence that it has had any impact on planet-wide CO2 increase. Not even a little bit. There’s not even any sign we’ve slowed down the acceleration.
Which bodes ill, not for the planet, but for the life that inhabits it. In particular, us. Making light of it is deplorable.
pretty much exactly what I was saying almost a year ago. The trend is clear, it is up. All of our actions to reduce CO2 sats in the atmosphere have not gotten us to even a flat line of increase in the 2 ppm range (which is a disastrous situation over time).
You want to hold temp increase to 1.5 or 2 degrees? Then you have to stop the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. As CO2 goes up, temperature goes up. As temp goes up, CO2 rate of increase ramps up.
You connect the dots, kemosabe.
Warm regards
Mike
Adam Leasays
I have been assigned the task of producing a couple of Powerpoint slides summarising why we need to keep most of the remaining fossil fuel reserves in the ground. Not being totally clued up on the hard facts I did a bit of online research, and found something which links to a study, which shows that if we want to keep the warming to within 2C, then we have an upper limit of CO2 we can emit. Linking this back to remaining fossil fuel reserves means leaving most of them in the ground. My question is, are there any peer-reviewed articles as to where the 2C limit comes from, and why this is defined as the upper safe (whatever the definition of “safe” is here) threshold beyond which the climate consequences of warming really start to become dangerous (I guess that keeping much below 2C is virtually impossible)?
Thomassays
So Looks like Mike the amateur activist was 100% right.
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising at the fastest rate on record, new research shows.
Of course some may point it it a predominantly el nino year and it’s only “natural variation” again. I wonder about that given that human co2 emissions are not going down but up. Kind of counter-intuitive. let’s wait till late 2017, and then late 2018 and then late in 2025 just to be sure who is more right. :-)
He says some very interesting things about what Joe Biden said to him directly.
Another interesting section includes:
“Right-wing collaboration with the fossil fuel industry is obvious, but connivance of liberals is widespread. Soon after Dick Gephardt retired as the Democratic leader in the U.S. House of Representatives he began receiving $120,000 per quarter from Peabody coal for lobbying, almost half a million dollars per year from a single source. Once elected, our representatives feel entitled to become part of an elite class. They are intelligent people, who support political perspectives that they think are good, but their personal well-being plays a big role.
“Washington (DC) is broken. The system in Washington (DC) is rotten to the core.
“Sophisticated bribery reigns. The pharmaceutical industry, the big banks, the fossil fuel industry, and so on, all work the system with impunity. Politicians understand this and many may have qualms, but they feel overwhelmed and have succumbed to the situation. This business is so ingrained in Washington (DC) that a Presidential candidate sees nothing wrong in accepting $250,000 from big banks for a single talk. Campaign finance reform was once talked about seriously, championed by John McCain, a potential standard-bearer, as a true, indeed remarkable, American war hero. One of the most disappointing political developments in my life was McCain’s ditching of campaign finance for the sake of party support of his Presidential nomination. Perhaps he thought that once elected he might come back to support this most fundamental matter.
“The two-party system in Washington is now rotten to the core. Papering over this situation as simply “politics,” as the (The Seattle Times ) editors did [changing the original word “Brides” to Politics] , is wrong and dangerous.
“Democracy is alive. Indeed, it is our best hope. But we stand at a dangerous point in history. The public knows enough about the Washington mess that it will not tolerate it much longer. The old cleansing action, throwing out one party for the other, no longer works. Both parties are infected. If an alternative does not arise, public anxiety may produce dangerous extremism.
“That is why, in Sophie’s Planet, I argue that we must allow more than two parties to compete. The public is so fed up with the two ruling parties that a “Revolutionary” party could compete effectively while taking no funds from special interests. However, the current electoral situation in the U.S. is rigged to prevent success of a third party.
“The reason I mention this here is the existence of another important ballot initiative in the current elections, in Maine, for what is called “ranked” or “instant runoff” voting.
“In this system you are allowed to vote for several candidates in rank order, eliminating the chance that you lose your vote on a minor party candidate with little chance of winning.
“Say there are five candidates for President. A voter ranks them in order of preference (or, foolishly, votes for only his #1 choice). If a candidate gets more than 50% of the votes as #1 choice, he/she is the winner. However, commonly none of them gets 50%. In that case, the candidate receiving the least number of votes is eliminated from consideration, and the vote of \ anybody who voted for that candidate instead becomes a vote for their #2 choice.
“If still no candidate has more than 50%, the second lowest vote-getter is eliminated, and so on.This system would allow the best people in our country to run for the Presidency.
[ and the least disliked person and untrusted person overall of the MAJORITY of Voters to WIN it!]
“Presently how many people are willing and able to go through the nomination procedures of the two parties? Minor parties do not attract the best people either, because who wants to simply be a “spoiler”? ”
—
How timely? And maybe I am a psychic after all? :-)
Anyway just another example of what it means to truly understand that “everything is connected” … nothing operates in a vacuum .. everything happens for a reason … it explains not only the complexities of climate science but also why no serious action has yet occurred to solve the problem from a political perspective as well.
For anyone interested Oz had an election this year. A nation of 23 million has 76 members in the senate. Have look at the make of the Parties and the Independents in this senate. 20% do not belong to the two major parties that can form a Government today. The Senate election is also decided on a “preferential voting system” across each State. The third biggest Party in our senate are the Greens which is a true reflection of the numbers of the people in Australia who support the views of a Jill Stein type candidate and here these people actually get a voice in deciding what Laws and Regulations will be passed.
It’s not perfect but most certainly is not worse than what the reality is in the USA and so many other nations.
HadCRUT has published for September posting an anomaly of +0.714ºC, a little bit lower than the last four months. It becomes the second hottest August on record, behind 2015 (+0.747ºC) and ahead of 2014 (+0.589ºC) & the 16th warmest monthly anomaly.
The average anomaly for 2016-to-date is running at +0.842ºC, pretty much the same as the average for the last 12-months which is +0.851ºC and still running above the average for the last calendar year (also presently the record calendar year) of +0.747ºC. Thus the remainder of 2016 would have to average above +0.46ºC to gain the ‘warmest calendar year’ accolade. (The most recent year with last 3 months’ average below +0.46ºC was 2011.) Only four of the last 20 months are not top 20 anomalies (& only one of the last 17 months are not top 20 anomalies) which is pretty impressive.
The temperatures for the last five months have perhaps settled down to give some sort of rough indication of the post-ElNino global temperature anomaly. These last five months average +0.73ºC, a little cooler than 2015’s +0.75ºC average, the warmest calendar year so far but which would have been boosted a little by El Nino. (The GISTEMP equivalent numbers are +0.92ºC for the last five months & +0.87ºC for 2015. NOAA equivalents +0.92ºC & +0.90ºC.)
The anomalies for 2015/16 and their rankings within the full record are as follows:-
2015 …1 … … 0.688ºC … = 22nd
2015 …2 … … 0.660ºC … … 30th
2015 …3 … … 0.681ºC … … 24th
2015 …4 … … 0.656ºC … … 32nd
2015 …5 … … 0.696ºC … = 20th
2015 …6 … … 0.730ºC … … 14th
2015 …7 … … 0.696ºC … = 20th
2015 …8 … … 0.732ºC … … 14th
2015 …9 … … 0.784ºC … … 9th
2015 …10 … . 0.820ºC … … 7th
2015 …11 … . 0.810ºC … … 8th
2015 …12 … . 1.010ºC … … 3rd
2016 …1 … … 0.908ºC … … 5th
2016 …2 … … 1.061ºC … … 2nd
2016 …3 … … 1.063ºC … … 1st
2016 …4 … … 0.915ºC … … 4th
2016 …5 … … 0.688ºC … = 22nd
2016 …6 … … 0.731ºC … … 13th
2016 …7 … … 0.728ºC … … 15th
2016 …8 … … 0.768ºC … … 10th
2016 …9 … … 0.714ºC … … 16th
I think the folks behind this website have successfully throttled the conversation by creating logjams of comments. This is the 28th and it appears no new comments since 177 on Oct 23rd. I suppose this meets someone’s objectives.
Mike
Chuck Hughessays
It appears that Thomas has more or less taken over the unforced Variations thread. I’m seeing multiple posts and double posts and non stop spamming intertwined with political junk and miles of links to irrelevant information and conspiracy theories. I’ve also noticed other regulars have quit posting. Could it be because Thomas the Troll is able to post with impunity? I think this needs to stop. I’ve all but quit reading this site.
Re 95 Nick O. says:
11 Oct 2016 at 12:25 AM “on BBC local radio last weekend, which is worth listening to. I appreciate that not everyone can get access to the link but here it is..”
Well, unless you’re living in the UK. And if you try to pick some bits of science, the BBC actually bans all videos i’ve uploaded to YouTube in 2012, about the discovery of Biochar, Lovelock interview, a 2 min excerpt about The Greenhouse Effect, and Methane gas flares. So the BBC content while often great, limited to UK, and is off limits for fair use as well. The BBC is the only media company i know, which is blocking their content worldwide. Sad, and tragic actions which counter climate awareness, solutions, and the science.
151 Russell says:
18 Oct 2016 at 5:49 PM
“A very disturbing memo on White House climate policy framing has been released by Wikileaks.”
Since fossil energy is still considered, we will likely fail to address climate change in a way which could prevent a lot of change. Hence, a lot of change will manifest, and with it all the disruptions. The best thing Clinton could do, make Sanders Energy/Environment/Climate Czar.
But since pipeline dreams are still dreamed, in the U.S. and elsewhere, we can just watch in awe, how the public and most influential circles don’t get it, prioritizing, judging, based on their peers and group think, instead of the best science. Hochmut kommt vor the Fall.
A person who is extremely proud of his or her abilities will often suffer a setback or failure, because he or she tends to be overconfident and to make errors of judgment.
A very disturbing memo on White House climate policy framing has been released by Wikileaks.
Thomas at 136. Wow, amazing videos of noctilucent clouds. Are you sure that this type of cloud is methane or strongly related to methane somehow?
How about it, Gavin or Stefan et al? Noctilucent clouds, methane release report from the Siberian Times, record warmth, record ice loss, etc…
Should we be worried yet?
LT at 143: yes, we, the human community. Even those of us who haven’t been able to churn out a lot of CO2 would generally do it if the opportunity arose. Those of us who have churned out our fair share and have cut back are still over the line in terms of equity to other species and generations to come. We, the human race, are cooking the planet with CO2 imho. Raise your hand if you think you have exceeded your lifetime CO2 budget.
Mike
Nemesis, you misunderstood. I didn’t say it was “just natural variability”. You quoted me, so I’m not sure why you got it wrong. I said the effects are variable. I was shocked by the lack of songbirds and insects 4 years ago in the UK but this year it was much much better. It’s variable but the downturn in all wildlife is worrying, very worrying. As for my comment on the decline not yet being due to climate change, well, this is a climate change blog.
Insects and Climate change?
“Different insect guilds respond differently to hot summers, which sometimes result in an increase in density and sometimes a decrease. These effects may occur immediately or be delayed by 1 or 2 years.
“As long as the regime remains unchanged, the affected population can recover sooner or later. Even a single-year change in climate, however, if it allows predators to outbreak, may be strong enough to cause a regime shift.
:Most insects are susceptible to heat stress between 28 and 32 °C, global warming could have a more profound impact on the population dynamics and biodiversity of arthropods than has previously been predicted.”
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13355-012-0158-y
Butterflies: Ecology and Evolution Taking Flight
By Carol L. Boggs, Ward B. Watt, Paul R. Ehrlich
https://goo.gl/NboQpW
Climate change could impact many of these systems by decoupling predators from their prey (Root and Schneider, 1995).
https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=225
Climate change already appears to be accelerating the seasonal development of some insects (Fleming and Tatchell, 1994). Forecasts based on historical relationships between outbreak patterns and climate in specific areas are likely to predict change as the climate in those areas changes.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=559
Logically, and considering the absence of complete research of such matters, it should be self evident that IF climate change can increase species it also has the capacity to DECREASE species. It all “depends” now doesn’t it .. where when what species and how they are imapcted by shifting regional climate scenarios.
50% of over 1700 wild species are already affected
by climate change – Parmesan & Yohe 2003.
Distribution: Altitudinal Shifts
Uphill expansions and downhill contractions
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/foodclimate/presentations/biodiv/Ian_Gordon.pdf
Projecting Insect Voltinism Under High and Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Conditions
http://ento.psu.edu/publications/Chen%20et%20al%202011%20Projecting%20Insect%20Voltinism.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voltinism#Examples
OR as #146 Lawrence Coleman so eloquently put it:
Nothing occurs in isolation … nothing!
Being unaware of the extent of the latest research in a narrowly defined biological field does not mean that empirical evidence does not exist.
Nemesis,
You got the cart before the horse on that one, ecological destruction is more of one source, a forcing, a reinforcing feedback, and a diminishing stabilizing feedback of AGW. Rather than the other way around.
In other words, yes there are mutual interconnected nuances, but AGW did not cause these problems with birds and insects, agriculture did that. Rather directly by both killing them with pesticides, and by destroying habitat. And agriculture is one of many causes of AGW. Now we do see AGW multiplying the effect, but important you make sure to understand the root cause.
Thomas, #147–Thanks for your response Yes, the politics of energy is tangled. No, we are not likely to get perfection in dealing with it. (Actually, that this a ‘done deal,’ since in a perfect world, we wouldn’t be anywhere near so far behind the mitigation curve as we are now.)
However, as Samuel Johnson famously said, “…when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”
National governments are coming to that realization.
To indulge in a bit of OT rambling, I must respectfully disagree. Not that today’s leaders are uniformly wonderful–rather that yesterday’s were just as humanly flawed. Consider the legendary leaders of the WW II era.
Churchill no doubt displayed wit, eloquence, determination, courage and imagination. However, he was also close-minded, arrogant, bullheaded, a bit of a lush betimes, and very much blinkered by the orthodoxies of his time and place. (Particularly troublesome to the body politic in this regard was his cultural racism, which very much complicated ‘the India question.’) One of his famous quotes was a statement to the effect that you can always count on America to do the right thing–after it has tried every alternative. He himself did a fair bit of ‘exploring alternatives’ in this sense. (“Soft underbelly of Europe,” anyone?)
Or Roosevelt, a master communicator who maintained a clear vision of what was truly important, even while navigating very choppy political waters. Yet he could be indecisive, even vacillating, and, like the Clintons today, seems to have had a somewhat troubled relationship with the truth. He was definitely a womanizer; if you read the biography, it’s hard to escape the feeling that Eleanor deserved much better than she received from Franklin.
Human nature hasn’t changed. Heroic feet always have had some admixture of clay. Yet they do manage to ‘get there’, often enough.
And NOAA has also now posted for September with an anomaly of +0.89ºC, the second hottest September on record after 2015 & the =11th warmest anomaly in the full record.
The average anomaly for 2016-to-date is running at +0.996ºC, just a smidgeon above the average for the last 12-months of +1.003ºC and still running above the average for the last calendar year (also presently the record calendar year) of +0.90ºC. Thus the remainder of 2016 would have to average above +0.62ºC to gain the ‘warmest calendar year’ accolade. (The most recent year with last 3 months’ average below +0.62ºC was 2012.) Only three of the 21 months of 2015 & 2016-so-far are not top 20 anomalies. This is lower than in GISTEMP where eight of the 21 months of 2015 & 2016-so-far are not top 20 anomalies. The difference is mostly because 2015 was warmer within NOAA than it was within GISTEMP, a situation also reflected in the higher average anomaly required for 2016 to gain ‘hottest year on record’ status within the NOAA record.
The anomalies for 2015/16 and their rankings within the full record are as follows:-
2015 … 1 … 0.82ºC … = 24th
2015 … 2 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
2015 … 3 … 0.90ºC … = 9th
2015 … 4 … 0.78ºC … = 33rd
2015 … 5 … 0.86ºC … = 18th
2015 … 6 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2015 … 7 … 0.81ºC … .. 26th
2015 … 8 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2015 … 9 … 0.93ºC … .. 8th
2015 .. 10 … 0.99ºC … .. 6th
2015 .. 11 … 0.97ºC … .. 7th
2015 .. 12 … 1.12ºC … .. 3rd
2016 … 1 … 1.05ºC … .. 5th
2016 … 2 … 1.19ºC … .. 2nd
2016 … 3 … 1.23ºC … .. 1st
2016 … 4 … 1.08ºC … .. 4th
2016 … 5 … 0.88ºC … = 15th
2016 … 6 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
2016 … 7 … 0.86ºC … = 18th
2016 … 8 … 0.90ºC … = 9th
2016 … 9 … 0.89ºC … = 11th
Hi Nemesis,
Thanks for the response and links to items on the decline in insects. You are correct – there are a myriad of causes in the apparent decline of insects and other invertebrates, chief among which will be urbanisation, poor agricultural practice, and forestation…although many other causes are implicated. However, despite the many reports and articles pointing to a ‘crisis’ I have not seen any such decline in number or variety of species visiting my garden over the last 18 years. Actually, this is not true – there was a quite considerable increase in species and number of individuals during the first few years – as the plants we put in our garden, deliberately to attract insects, started to mature. But otherwise, apart from yearly fluctuations where numbers were either down or there was an overabundance, numbers have changed little. Of course this is my subjective opinion and I have no numeric data to support what I’m saying (capture and release or otherwise trapping in malaise traps is beyond my ability and budget).
The point I’m trying to make is that numbers will fluctuate from one year to the next, wet years bring fewer insects, dryer and brighter years more. This is also reflected from day to day. On wet, dull or windy days you will find fewer insects, whereas on dry, bright days, particularly following a few days of rain, insects will be numerous. Location is also important. I live in a small town surrounded by a mix of intensive arable, pasture, broadleaf woodland, and commercial pine plantations at the edge of the Grampian mountains – as a consequence the variety of habitats is reflected in the abundance of species and number of insects visiting my garden. However, I work in the City of Aberdeen where there is a disappointing lack of insects. Where, when and how you monitor is therefore vitally important – but it does depend on what story you want to tell. Remember this story of extinction? http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/wildlife/article4212524.ece
As I said, I doubt that Germany has lost 80% of its insects…20%, 30% maybe, particularly in urban areas but I would hazard that the distribution is patchy and that in some areas there has been no overall decrease and in others possibly an increase. If Germany has indeed lost 80% of its insects then it should be given the title of “The Dirty Man of Europe” an accolade previously held by the UK.
I have known for a very long time that the multiple problems surrounding AGW/CC isn’t about the “facts” nor the “science literacy” of the population.
JOhn Cook and many other have focused on the various denial strategies now, after years of trying to make clarifying the facts via his Skeptical Science website – it helped some but has not made a dint in the denialist rhetoric.
Every climate science denier online thinks Skeptical Science is a JOKE, and juts another example of the politically motivated left to lie and cheat and misrepresent the facts .. the typical conspiracy bs.
The thing is, being caught inside a conspiratorial thinking bubble is of itself a psychological / cognitive issue and not one about the facts. The facts the truth the reality are all irrelevant.
Recent post here from Prof Jerry Kroth again confirms this. The work by Prof Lakoff confirms this. Hundreds of psychology cognitive science related papers wil confirm this.
Finally there’;s a group formed in Australia to actually help people deal with and communicate effectively with their friends and family about climate science and it’s implications.
Psychology for a Safe Climate
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4237244/no-silence-on-science/
Our purpose is to contribute psychological understanding and support within the community, helping people face the difficult climate reality.
http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/
Note their headline – FOSTERING EMOTIONAL ENGAGEMENT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE –
That’s very significant. Why? Because pathological narcissists (politicians, corportate execs CEOs and their shareholders, journos, media barons, the wealthy) have a distinct lack of EMPATHY.
As such denialist activists also lack EMPATHY and those who are attracted to denialists websites as commenters and supporters lack EMPATHY.
For example something i have also posted before:
Exploring the Psychology of Wealth
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business-jan-june13-makingsense_06-21/
or look more closely into this
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=narcissists%20in%20business
The #1 Rule is – Lacks Empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others. Lack of empathy is one of the most striking features of people with narcissistic personality disorder. It’s a hallmark of the disorder in the same way that fear of abandonment is in borderline personality disorder.
https://www.bpdcentral.com/narcissistic-disorder/hallmarks-of-npd/
Typically there is only about 1% to 2.5% of pathological narcissists in the community. In jails and in business circles it’s closer to 25% (see the research)
and quick overview of why it is so difficult to deal with these people
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7j2axIRja4&feature=youtu.be&t=3m58s
You will find these people funding and operating denialist websites as well as commenting on them (and here) and in the process abusing every person who accepts AGW/CC – those silly enough to imagine they can make a difference by “pointing out the facts”.
Like me here now, trying to point out the most important “facts” of what is blocking any significant advance in the world dealing with AGW/CC today – human psychology and especially PSYCHOPATHIC PATHOLOGY aka incipient collective mental illness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnEO2ysnO6Q&feature=youtu.be&t=15m50s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blkqV6ahXSs&t=1h8m46s
You can’t help people (nor even have a rational respectful conversation with them) when they are living in a delusional fantasy and who think it is you who has the problem!
Refuse to call a spade a spade and nothing will change nor be solved. Psychology is both the cause and the solution here.
The alternative is more disgusting arguments on social media sites, then civil war and eventually international war. Because that is where things are heading very fast (much faster than the climate is changing.)
Leading the Public into Emergency Mode: A New Strategy for the Climate Movement.
Written by psychologist Margaret Salamon, founder of the Climate Mobilization in the USA.
http://www.theclimatemobilization.org/emergencymode?utm_campaign=emergency_mode&utm_medium=email&utm_source=theclimatemobilization
Melbourne-based Psychology for a Safe Climate group to facilitate workshops on climate change conversations
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4237244/no-silence-on-science/
Our purpose is to contribute psychological understanding and support within the community, helping people face the difficult climate reality.
http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/
We are also aware of the ongoing stress borne by those who are active in advocating for action on climate change.
They carry a burden on behalf of a community that is struggling to engage.
We have devised workshops to support these people and their groups and organisations. Our hope is to continue to respond creatively to developing needs within our community.
http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org/our-work
I hope the climate scientists are aware of these issues and how they can negatively impact them and their families personally. I encourage them to seek appropriate psychological support such as regular counselling to handle the stress. No man or woman is an island – even a climate scientist.
156 Kevin, thanks no probs.
“Human nature hasn’t changed. Heroic feet always have had some admixture of clay. Yet they do manage to ‘get there’, often enough.”
Yep. here’s hoping.
OT side humour, regarding “it’s hard to escape the feeling that Eleanor deserved much better than she received from Franklin.”
I heard Eleanor was a bit of a womaniser herself. ;-)
151 Russell, what is the “disturbing” thing about that to you Kevin?
152 mike, I do not know about those ch4 clouds, I was short of time, couldn’t find anything easy online, so posting it here was to get me something better to go on.
157 MA Rodger This is an interesting little grouping here 1st to 8th greatest monthly analomies –
SEPT 2015 thru APRIL 2016
2015 9 0.93C .. 8th
2015 .. 10 0.99C .. 6th
2015 .. 11 0.97C .. 7th
2015 .. 12 1.12C .. 3rd
2016 1 1.05C .. 5th
2016 2 1.19C .. 2nd
2016 3 1.23C .. 1st
2016 4 1.08C .. 4th
158 Brian Blagden regarding “…there are a myriad of causes in the apparent decline of insects and other invertebrates, chief among which will be urbanisation, poor agricultural practice, and (de-)forestation…
What a coincidence, those are also a few of the well known drivers for AGW/CC too. :-)
regarding “However, despite the many reports and articles pointing to a ‘crisis’ I have not seen any such decline in number or variety of species visiting my garden over the last 18 years.”
Which is precisely the reason why the scientific method was developed, in order to side-step “personal confirmation bias” by objectively doing the research, collecting the data, and then following that data no matter what one might have expected to be “true”.
One garden does not a scientific study make. Nor one pair of eyes, or even a thousand pairs of eyes.
Woodward and Bernstein were told to follow the money, but science follows the data. :-)
When there is no data, then they need to go out and collect it – and keep following their own instincts as to what data needs collecting.
Despite the positives and all the good studies coming out each and every week now, things are still very grim in my view.
I willing to be surprised though … like all these protests suddenly erupting in paternalistic south america out of the blue (it seems).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/20/argentina-women-south-america-marches-violence-ni-una-menos
Best to all.
Jim Hansen goes in hard:
” I will not mince words, Mrs. Solberg. Your government’s actions are utterly at odds with the scientific consensus that underpins the Paris Agreement. Norway appears hell-bent on sabotaging the treaty before it has even come into effect. Fortunately, there may be a way to block the actions of what many are beginning to consider a climate rogue state. ”
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20161018_SolbergLetter.pdf
Norway – Keep Calm and Drill On – Foreign Correspondent – ABC
(video/text)
Sep 27, 2016 – Oil-rich Norway has adopted the radical goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2030. But as Eric Campbell reports, there’s a catch
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2016/s4546534.htm
I had to LOL today when I heard Biden’s comments about “a threat to our democratic process.” and “the legitimacy of our democracy,” and the most profound example of delusional disconnection from reality was his comment “attacking the very essence of the notion whether we have a democratic system” coupled with “No democratic process can be sustained without a sense of trust”
Now that’s quite ironic and the funniest saddest thing I have heard for years. What trust? what democracy?
It’s not that hard to work out why there has been so very little progress in confronting agw/cc for decades and such a gigantic system of denial operating in the US ground zero.
An odd coincidence this 2015 doco popped up on netflix today. Pretty much nails why the agw/cc problems are currently unsolvable with only very slow marginal actions being taken. http://requiemfortheamericandream.com Highly recommended for the clear thinking, sane, well informed viewer
cheers :-)
159: Thomas: “Finally there’;s a group formed in Australia to actually help people deal with and communicate effectively with their friends and family about climate science and it’s implications.”
I have been involved in a discussion group called Carbon conversations since June in the sunshine coast district. It brought together a small group 5 of us plus our mediator. The entire group incl. me were in their early 50’s and all sharing a grave concern about our planet’s future. It is based on an British format that’s been running for a number of years. I bought the discussion book ‘In time for tomorrow?’ from Rosemary Randall and Andy Brown in the UK before the group kicked off. I was the guy with the facts and figures and a detailed understanding of the physical processes at work re: climate change and it’s implications. Others were more knowledgeable on renewable energies or the social aspect of CC etc. It went for six 3 hour sessions held every other week on Thursday night. We all complemented each other very well. We all were free to speak our minds and discuss our fears. I’ve come to realise that the ol’ adage “knowledge conquers fear” does not relate to Climate change. The more I understand about it the more despair I hold for the planet. It’s a perfect storm that we are not going to sail out the other side of…for probably hundreds of thousands of years. Which lifeforms will survive is anyone’s guess?. Hopefully not humans.
The members of the group were all extremely relieved to discuss the matter with other like minded people, in most cases they couldn’t talk about it to friends or family. I’m also in that category. My wife is quite dismissive about the whole thing but at least I’ve educated my son.
Anyway thought you’d be interested Thomas. Cheers!
Arctic Sea Ice Extent is certainly having an interesting year.
Back in the spring, when the melt begins to make large in-roads into the ice, this year’s melt was a counrty-mile ahead of all previous years (on the satellite record).
The eventual headline minimum monthly figure was not so dramatic, but that was because the ice began a dramatic re-freeze for the second half of September, a re-freeze that came to a sudden halt in October and since then 2016 has shown the least melty October on record. So much so that in the last few days, 2016 has become the least frozen autumn on record, nosing ahead of (or should that be dropping below) 2007, 2011 & 2012 in both JAXA’s (data) and NSIDC’s (interactive graph) daily measurements.
http://gulfnews.com/culture/environment/it-s-the-hottest-in-115-000-years-1.1906539
https://blogs.loc.gov/inside_adams/2010/11/world-war-ii-scientific-manpower/
163
regarding the White House climate communication memo , Thomas asks:
151 Russell, what is the “disturbing” thing about that to you…?
The parts highlighted in the link below range from political hype that subordinates science communication to political expedience :
To raw expressions of partisan ideology- what the authors term “The Troglodyte Narrative:
In short, the partisan “Masters of Disaster” hired to write it seem bent on turning turn Chris Mooney’s The Republican War on Science into a declaration of War on Republican Scientists.
http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2016/10/ad-john-podesta-ex-masters-of-disaster.html
166 Lawrence Coleman – mate that’s fantastic. Good on you. Can I come along? I’m down the Tweed area but have friends up your way. Can you provide some group contact info please?
I had no idea before such groups existed like http://www.psychologyforasafeclimate.org or yours.
These psychological impacts and difficulties in talking about them are very real.
Find the errors in these news:
” 19.10.2016 – Exxon CEO: world needs oil of five Saudi Arabias by 2040
Rex Tillerson tells industry event oil and gas companies will thrive in coming decades despite climate policies…
“We’re trying to influence and inform people and business on the choices they make.”
Exxon has come under intense pressure in the past year over evidence it ignored warnings from its own scientists of the dangers posed by burning fossil fuels way back in the 1980s.
Leaked internal documents clash with the company’s public position over the past decades and funding of lobbying to cast doubt on the veracity of climate science.
It is facing an inquiry from a coalition of Democrat attorney generals led by New York State’s Eric Schneiderman into what the company knew.
Tillerson avoided mentioning the issue, but insisted the company he has run since 2006 was committed to doing the “right thing the right way”.
“Integrity is in everything we do. It’s the foundation of trust and cooperation. A focus on integrity makes a corporations more effective,” he said.”
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/10/19/exxon-ceo-world-needs-oil-of-five-saudi-arabias-by-2040/
Good luck :-)
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. – Albert Einstein
If American’s want more of the same then go vote for Clinton even though it’s illogical to believe those that have caused the problems are the right people to “fix it”. You would already know that it was the Democrats & Republicans under Pres. Clinton who repealed Glass-Steigel and you all should know by now where that led to – the GFC and government bailouts of corrupt corporate / finance america and social destruction across the nation.
While I disagree with the proposed climate change related actions (these can be worked through later nothing great is happening now anyway), the more important issue that would bring real change to the corrupt political system and anti-climate science agenda in the USA is:-
What would the effect of this be on all the climate science deniers inside Congress IF this was to occur?
—
“FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress”
—
That could mean Goodbye to all the Corporate Proxies inside the Congress such as Jim Inhofe and Lamar Smith.
It would open the door for genuine representatives and senators such as Jim Hansen and Michael Mann to run for Congress in 2018.
and what about:- “FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;”
FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
and 10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics ???
FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified.
short summary here http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/22/trump_addresses_contract_with_the_american_voter_in_gettysburg_term_limits_energy_immigration_more.html
Skip the Media Lies/Spin – Full Speech: Donald Trump Gettysburg, PA (10/22/2016) First 100 Day Plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uisCGi0p6nM
Of course the biggest issue in all the above is that America hasn’t been a true democracy for ……… ? It is in fact a root and branch Corporatocracy
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruce-e-levine/the-myth-of-us-democracy-corporatocracy_b_836573.html
https://www.quora.com/Politics-of-the-United-States-of-America-Has-the-USA-become-a-Corporatocracy-If-so-is-this-good-or-bad
Just sayin’ – not here to argue – He’ll lose no doubt about it – so the only solution for America will become the Civil War v2.0
And do read this “The Philippine Star” Updated October 23, 2016
“President Rodrigo Duterte has two personalities when he speaks depending on his audience. So his speech last Thursday at the Great Hall of China before Filipino and Chinese businessmen was not expected.”
“Duterte’s program of change outside and inside the country is a signal the days of the oligarchy are numbered.”
http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2016/10/23/1636366/high-road-china
Many more nations will go the way of the Philippines in the next decade – the empire is over and the winds of change are a blowing – how “hot” they become no one can predict.
But change is coming, it’s unstoppable now – as unstoppable as 2-3C .
Highly recommended doco with Noam Chomsky for the clear thinking, sane, well informed reader – and even better for those still living inside “fantasy land”. http://requiemfortheamericandream.com
Not here to argue, all this IS directly connected to AGW/CC it’s causes and it’s eventual long term solution.
Who is China’s 8th largest Trading Partner?
WALMART
That’s a fact. Look it up.
I haven’t run across mention of how old the ice is. Years ago, while circumnavigating Iceland, our ship sailed up to the Greenland ice pack, where we were feted with 3 year old bergy bits–clear, hard, massive, with water as sweet as a spring’s.
A few years later, in the Sixth Extinction, I read that the ice pack depth in some places had declined from 60 feet to 20 feet.
A few years later, we were back in the North, at Svalbard. That year, the polar bear dens in the special study area had plummeted from 50 to 2. Even more shocking to me–in checking our travel options, I had run across a listing for ice breakers that, for a price, took travelers to the North Pole and back. I have to believe those ships are going through young, junky, soft salty ice, not sixty feet of 3 year ice.
Perhaps not, but, if the character of the ice has changed fundamentally, the visual image and tactile sense of those different types of ice would be a compelling way to communicate to a lay person (like me) just how profoundly the sea ice cap has changed.
Consider doing some of your own research into agw/cc realities and US political realities, and see where it takes you.
All told, the campaign to elect Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 has received more than $6.9 million from lobbyists, bundlers, and large donors connected to the fossil fuel industry
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/campaign-updates/hillary-clintons-connection-oil-gas-industry/
Jan 2016 Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton “I don’t take money from big banks….You’ve received over $600,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs in one year.”
There are the direct payments to Hillary Clinton’s political campaigns, including for the Senate in 2000 and for the presidency in 2008 and now in 2016, which had reached a total of $712.4 million as of September 30, 2015, the most recent figures compiled by Open Secrets.
Four of the top five sources of these funds are major banks: Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Morgan Stanley. The Clinton campaign meanwhile has set a goal of raising $1 billion for her Super PAC for the 2016 election.
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/
ALEC wrote the 3 strikes you’re out laws signed by Bill Clinton – plus the laws that provided federal funds for the private prisons growth and the militarisation of US police forces now blowing up as street protests re #blacklivesmatter movements.
ALEC home
https://www.alec.org/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Legislative_Exchange_Council
Through ALEC, Global Corporations Are Scheming to Rewrite YOUR Rights and Boost THEIR Revenue
http://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/American_Legislative_Exchange_Council
Another David Koch project, Citizens for a Sound Economy —which launched the effort to repeal [BILL CLINTON’s] Glass-Steagall protections keeping banks from gambling in securities—helped fuel the fight for “free trade,” an unpopular policy in the 1980s. [Bill Clinton’s] The North American Free Trade Agreement passed with help from CSE and its corporate allies.
David Koch helped inject the idea of privatizing public schools into the national debate as a candidate for vice president in 1980. A cornerstone of the Libertarian Party platform, which he bankrolled, was the call for “educational tax credits to encourage alternatives to public education,” a plan to the right of Ronald Reagan.
https://www.thenation.com/article/alec-exposed-koch-connection/
ALEC Energy, Environment and Agriculture Task Force
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/ALEC_Energy,_Environment_and_Agriculture_Task_Force
Contained within WikiLeaks’ recent release of hacked DNC emails is a message from billionaire globalist financier George Soros, to Hillary Clinton while she was U.S. Secretary of State, that clearly reveals Clinton as a puppet of the billionaire class.
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/wikileaks-email-soros-clintons-master
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/alecs-influence-over-lawmaking-in-state-legislatures/
Meanwhile “deniers” and anti-AGW/CC “corporate shills” continue to push the lie that Climate scientists are corrupt frauds and involved in a conspiracy to become RICH by lying about their science.
It’s impossible to separate the attacks against climate science and scientists FROM corporate banking funded Super-PACS, and the funding of BOTH Democrat and Republican candidates at all levels of govt, and ALEC, and Bill Clinton in the 1990s and Hillary Clinton today OR and the corrupt biased manipulative MEDIA
As “weird” as Trump and his team are NOT involved with ALEC nor ALEC entwined Republicans like Mit Rommney, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Scot Walker, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Tom Ridge, James Inhofe, Lindsey Graham, Richard Shelby et al.
The truth is always stranger and far worse than fiction – House of Cards (U.S. TV series) deals primarily with themes of ruthless pragmatism, manipulation, murder, and abuse of power.
http://www.prwatch.org/news/2012/04/11474/pccc-pressures-democratic-members-drop-alec
Former (???) Democrat Members of ALEC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_former_members_of_the_American_Legislative_Exchange_Council#Resigned_legislative_members
ALEC anti-science agendas
http://www.alternet.org/economy/alecs-scary-corporate-agenda-7-their-most-anti-democratic-and-science-denying-ideas
ALEC Legislative members
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_members_of_the_American_Legislative_Exchange_Council#Legislative_members
This is the world in which we live. Make no mistake about that. Try not to drink the Koolaid in the process and falsely believe US voting is a “free choice” between “genuine options” when you do not and never have had access to the whole truth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry
Noam Chomsky is a pioneering and world renowned linguist. He is the world’s most frequently cited scholar,/b>, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, and considered one of the founders of cognitive science.
He has authored over 100 books, with his latest titled, “Who Rules the World?” and is currently is Institute Professor Emeritus at MIT.
This talk, presented at Harvard-Epworth Church, Cambridge, MA on May 12, 2016, was the second presentation in Massachusetts Peace Action’s Distinguished Peacebuilders Series.
Noam Chomsky: After the Electoral Extravaganza
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbYMoUa9_BU
Enjoy.
If you’re not shocked in 2016 then you haven’t been paying attention.
Noam Chomsky is a pioneering and world renowned linguist. He is the world’s most frequently cited scholar,, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, and considered one of the founders of cognitive science.
He has authored over 100 books, with his latest titled, “Who Rules the World?” and is currently is Institute Professor Emeritus at MIT.
This talk, presented at Harvard-Epworth Church, Cambridge, MA on May 12, 2016, was the second presentation in Massachusetts Peace Action’s Distinguished Peacebuilders Series.
Noam Chomsky: After the Electoral Extravaganza
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbYMoUa9_BU
Enjoy.
“If you’re not shocked in 2016 then you haven’t been paying attention.” Thomas O’Reilly
@167 MA Rodger. “Arctic Sea Ice Extent is certainly having an interesting year.”
Not sure if this means anything in any long term context but I was quite startled to see the forecast temperature anomaly for the Arctic later this week (according to Climate Reanalyzer) is set to be +6.36C.
Interesting indeed.
@Thomas, #172, 175
” Clinton campaign dubs WikiLeaks ‘Russian propaganda’ after latest hack”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/11/clinton-campaign-wikileaks-hack-russia-donald-trump
Muhahaha :-D
Let em go on just for a little while- Mother Nature will teach em soon 3:-)
@ Thomas, with reference to your incessant spamming of the thread.
I’ve suggested in the past that the reason we can’t have a useful discussion of topics that have scientific and engineering and even “social engineering” content but aren’t strictly climate science is that some individuals are incapable of self-control.
I think the moderators realize that there are related topics of great interest– I found Scott’s exposition on agriculture enlightening, whether it is completely accurate in its conclusions or not, for example– but then the reality of people like yourself intrudes.
If you have something of value to say, it shouldn’t be necessary to drown out all the other voices. Doing so diminishes your impact and calls into question whether you have the confidence or the ability to sustain a single rational argument.
The magical abilities of climate deniers:
http://static.nichtlustig.de/comics/full/091121.jpg
@Thomas (172): Are you seriously wishing Donald Trump on the US? Really? I’ll forego the rest of my intended tirade on the hope that you intended that as some kind of obscure satire.
Facing up to the reality of Liars? Science Study shows empirical evidence for a slippery slope of self-serving dishonesty
Confronting the Liars that affect your life is the first step to moving past personal Gullibility. Proven ‘career’ liars do not stop lying. They do not tell the truth about subjects XYZ and only lie about subject A.
New Nature Paper – The brain adapts to dishonesty – Abstract
“Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time.
“Here we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it.”
“The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a ‘slippery slope’: what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger transgressions.”
http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nn.4426.html
Full Study pdf doc
http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nn.4426.pdf
News report
How To Tell A Lie With Ease? Lying Comes Naturally To Those Who Practice
“Lying becomes successively easy to those who keep up the habit of telling fibs, indicates a new study. Researchers looked at MRI scans of lying test subjects to discover that the art of lying becomes increasingly simpler, while the lies get consecutively bigger with each untruth.”
http://www.inquisitr.com/3637591/how-to-tell-a-lie-lying-comes-naturally-practice-brain-mri-scans-liars-study/
The more they get away with lying the more they lie about anything and everything without a Conscience and expect to get away with all of their Lies.
Christopher Monckton, Exxon-Mobil, Roy Spencer, Willi Soon, Jennifer Marohasy, Anthony Watts, Dick Cheney, Steven Goddard (pseudonym for Tony Heller), GWPF, most Police, Erdogan, Jim Inhofe, Lehman Brothers, AIG, the NYSE Board, Goldman Sachs, the Saudis and yes, even Barack Obama.
“I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”
THE WORLD’S FIRST robot to control marine pests has completed trials on the Great Barrier Reef, successfully hunting down and killing the coral destroying crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS).
the COTS is responsible for around 40 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef’s total loss of coral.
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2016/10/new-robot-to-destroy-pests-on-the-great-barrier-reef
October 16 – 22, 2016 401.65 ppm
October 16 – 22, 2015 398.49 ppm
increase of 3.16 ppm in noisy number
Daily CO2
October 24, 2016: 402.27 ppm
October 24, 2015: 398.65 ppm
3.62 ppm increase in really noisy number
This is the ballgame. As long as this number continues to rise, we are in trouble and every ppm increase is deeper trouble. It goes up easy, it comes down hard when considered against the activities of our species.
Warm regards,
Mike
Russell, I’d like to see your rewrite of that statement to make it gather more support rather than drive people away.
What would you recommend saying?
Seriously.
The only models extant do a lot of demonizing, unless they’re Cassandra’s warnings.
What’s better?
Thomas says:
23 Oct 2016 at 6:56 PM
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. – Albert Einstein
NO, insanity is posting multiple links and paragraphs and expecting anyone to read it.
from post 400 by tamino at Open Mind:
All in all, the evidence suggests that the present long-term rate of CO2 increase is right around 2.25 ppmv/yr. Alas, there’s no sign of any slowdown in atmospheric CO2 growth; quite the contrary, it’s continuing to accelerate. Although there are brief episodes of faster and slower growth, the best estimate — so far — is near-constant acceleration.
Many nations claim that they have reduced their CO2 emissions rate. But there’s absolutely no evidence that it has had any impact on planet-wide CO2 increase. Not even a little bit. There’s not even any sign we’ve slowed down the acceleration.
Which bodes ill, not for the planet, but for the life that inhabits it. In particular, us. Making light of it is deplorable.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/26/400/#comments
pretty much exactly what I was saying almost a year ago. The trend is clear, it is up. All of our actions to reduce CO2 sats in the atmosphere have not gotten us to even a flat line of increase in the 2 ppm range (which is a disastrous situation over time).
You want to hold temp increase to 1.5 or 2 degrees? Then you have to stop the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. As CO2 goes up, temperature goes up. As temp goes up, CO2 rate of increase ramps up.
You connect the dots, kemosabe.
Warm regards
Mike
I have been assigned the task of producing a couple of Powerpoint slides summarising why we need to keep most of the remaining fossil fuel reserves in the ground. Not being totally clued up on the hard facts I did a bit of online research, and found something which links to a study, which shows that if we want to keep the warming to within 2C, then we have an upper limit of CO2 we can emit. Linking this back to remaining fossil fuel reserves means leaving most of them in the ground. My question is, are there any peer-reviewed articles as to where the 2C limit comes from, and why this is defined as the upper safe (whatever the definition of “safe” is here) threshold beyond which the climate consequences of warming really start to become dangerous (I guess that keeping much below 2C is virtually impossible)?
So Looks like Mike the amateur activist was 100% right.
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising at the fastest rate on record, new research shows.
The level of CO2 – a potent greenhouse gas – is on course to rise 3.3 parts per million this year, an acceleration from 3 ppm in 2015, said Paul Fraser, an honorary CSIRO fellow.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/milestone-global-greenhouse-gas-levels-accelerate-past-key-marker-20161021-gs888m.html
No time to chase the original source.
Of course some may point it it a predominantly el nino year and it’s only “natural variation” again. I wonder about that given that human co2 emissions are not going down but up. Kind of counter-intuitive. let’s wait till late 2017, and then late 2018 and then late in 2025 just to be sure who is more right. :-)
Good ol’ Jim Hansen is still cranking it up out there on the activist trails. His latest missive to The Seattle Times is here: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20161026_UnwashedVersion.pdf
He says some very interesting things about what Joe Biden said to him directly.
Another interesting section includes:
“Right-wing collaboration with the fossil fuel industry is obvious, but connivance of liberals is widespread. Soon after Dick Gephardt retired as the Democratic leader in the U.S. House of Representatives he began receiving $120,000 per quarter from Peabody coal for lobbying, almost half a million dollars per year from a single source. Once elected, our representatives feel entitled to become part of an elite class. They are intelligent people, who support political perspectives that they think are good, but their personal well-being plays a big role.
“Washington (DC) is broken. The system in Washington (DC) is rotten to the core.
“Sophisticated bribery reigns. The pharmaceutical industry, the big banks, the fossil fuel industry, and so on, all work the system with impunity. Politicians understand this and many may have qualms, but they feel overwhelmed and have succumbed to the situation. This business is so ingrained in Washington (DC) that a Presidential candidate sees nothing wrong in accepting $250,000 from big banks for a single talk. Campaign finance reform was once talked about seriously, championed by John McCain, a potential standard-bearer, as a true, indeed remarkable, American war hero. One of the most disappointing political developments in my life was McCain’s ditching of campaign finance for the sake of party support of his Presidential nomination. Perhaps he thought that once elected he might come back to support this most fundamental matter.
“The two-party system in Washington is now rotten to the core. Papering over this situation as simply “politics,” as the (The Seattle Times ) editors did [changing the original word “Brides” to Politics] , is wrong and dangerous.
“Democracy is alive. Indeed, it is our best hope. But we stand at a dangerous point in history. The public knows enough about the Washington mess that it will not tolerate it much longer. The old cleansing action, throwing out one party for the other, no longer works. Both parties are infected. If an alternative does not arise, public anxiety may produce dangerous extremism.
“That is why, in Sophie’s Planet, I argue that we must allow more than two parties to compete. The public is so fed up with the two ruling parties that a “Revolutionary” party could compete effectively while taking no funds from special interests. However, the current electoral situation in the U.S. is rigged to prevent success of a third party.
“The reason I mention this here is the existence of another important ballot initiative in the current elections, in Maine, for what is called “ranked” or “instant runoff” voting.
[more commonly known in some countries as a Preferential Voting System http://australianpolitics.com/voting/preferential ]
“In this system you are allowed to vote for several candidates in rank order, eliminating the chance that you lose your vote on a minor party candidate with little chance of winning.
“Say there are five candidates for President. A voter ranks them in order of preference (or, foolishly, votes for only his #1 choice). If a candidate gets more than 50% of the votes as #1 choice, he/she is the winner. However, commonly none of them gets 50%. In that case, the candidate receiving the least number of votes is eliminated from consideration, and the vote of \ anybody who voted for that candidate instead becomes a vote for their #2 choice.
“If still no candidate has more than 50%, the second lowest vote-getter is eliminated, and so on.This system would allow the best people in our country to run for the Presidency.
[ and the least disliked person and untrusted person overall of the MAJORITY of Voters to WIN it!]
“Presently how many people are willing and able to go through the nomination procedures of the two parties? Minor parties do not attract the best people either, because who wants to simply be a “spoiler”? ”
—
How timely? And maybe I am a psychic after all? :-)
Anyway just another example of what it means to truly understand that “everything is connected” … nothing operates in a vacuum .. everything happens for a reason … it explains not only the complexities of climate science but also why no serious action has yet occurred to solve the problem from a political perspective as well.
For anyone interested Oz had an election this year. A nation of 23 million has 76 members in the senate. Have look at the make of the Parties and the Independents in this senate. 20% do not belong to the two major parties that can form a Government today. The Senate election is also decided on a “preferential voting system” across each State. The third biggest Party in our senate are the Greens which is a true reflection of the numbers of the people in Australia who support the views of a Jill Stein type candidate and here these people actually get a voice in deciding what Laws and Regulations will be passed.
It’s not perfect but most certainly is not worse than what the reality is in the USA and so many other nations.
Sorry forget the url
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/senate/
Please read my blog and find out how you can make a difference today and minimise your own personal carbon footprint
Please read my blog and find out how you can make a difference today and minimise your own personal carbon footprint: http://www.viridianenergyaustralia.org/2016/10/27/climate-change/
HadCRUT has published for September posting an anomaly of +0.714ºC, a little bit lower than the last four months. It becomes the second hottest August on record, behind 2015 (+0.747ºC) and ahead of 2014 (+0.589ºC) & the 16th warmest monthly anomaly.
The average anomaly for 2016-to-date is running at +0.842ºC, pretty much the same as the average for the last 12-months which is +0.851ºC and still running above the average for the last calendar year (also presently the record calendar year) of +0.747ºC. Thus the remainder of 2016 would have to average above +0.46ºC to gain the ‘warmest calendar year’ accolade. (The most recent year with last 3 months’ average below +0.46ºC was 2011.) Only four of the last 20 months are not top 20 anomalies (& only one of the last 17 months are not top 20 anomalies) which is pretty impressive.
The temperatures for the last five months have perhaps settled down to give some sort of rough indication of the post-ElNino global temperature anomaly. These last five months average +0.73ºC, a little cooler than 2015’s +0.75ºC average, the warmest calendar year so far but which would have been boosted a little by El Nino. (The GISTEMP equivalent numbers are +0.92ºC for the last five months & +0.87ºC for 2015. NOAA equivalents +0.92ºC & +0.90ºC.)
The anomalies for 2015/16 and their rankings within the full record are as follows:-
2015 …1 … … 0.688ºC … = 22nd
2015 …2 … … 0.660ºC … … 30th
2015 …3 … … 0.681ºC … … 24th
2015 …4 … … 0.656ºC … … 32nd
2015 …5 … … 0.696ºC … = 20th
2015 …6 … … 0.730ºC … … 14th
2015 …7 … … 0.696ºC … = 20th
2015 …8 … … 0.732ºC … … 14th
2015 …9 … … 0.784ºC … … 9th
2015 …10 … . 0.820ºC … … 7th
2015 …11 … . 0.810ºC … … 8th
2015 …12 … . 1.010ºC … … 3rd
2016 …1 … … 0.908ºC … … 5th
2016 …2 … … 1.061ºC … … 2nd
2016 …3 … … 1.063ºC … … 1st
2016 …4 … … 0.915ºC … … 4th
2016 …5 … … 0.688ºC … = 22nd
2016 …6 … … 0.731ºC … … 13th
2016 …7 … … 0.728ºC … … 15th
2016 …8 … … 0.768ºC … … 10th
2016 …9 … … 0.714ºC … … 16th
I think the folks behind this website have successfully throttled the conversation by creating logjams of comments. This is the 28th and it appears no new comments since 177 on Oct 23rd. I suppose this meets someone’s objectives.
Mike
It appears that Thomas has more or less taken over the unforced Variations thread. I’m seeing multiple posts and double posts and non stop spamming intertwined with political junk and miles of links to irrelevant information and conspiracy theories. I’ve also noticed other regulars have quit posting. Could it be because Thomas the Troll is able to post with impunity? I think this needs to stop. I’ve all but quit reading this site.
Re 95 Nick O. says:
11 Oct 2016 at 12:25 AM “on BBC local radio last weekend, which is worth listening to. I appreciate that not everyone can get access to the link but here it is..”
Well, unless you’re living in the UK. And if you try to pick some bits of science, the BBC actually bans all videos i’ve uploaded to YouTube in 2012, about the discovery of Biochar, Lovelock interview, a 2 min excerpt about The Greenhouse Effect, and Methane gas flares. So the BBC content while often great, limited to UK, and is off limits for fair use as well. The BBC is the only media company i know, which is blocking their content worldwide. Sad, and tragic actions which counter climate awareness, solutions, and the science.
151 Russell says:
18 Oct 2016 at 5:49 PM
“A very disturbing memo on White House climate policy framing has been released by Wikileaks.”
Since fossil energy is still considered, we will likely fail to address climate change in a way which could prevent a lot of change. Hence, a lot of change will manifest, and with it all the disruptions. The best thing Clinton could do, make Sanders Energy/Environment/Climate Czar.
But since pipeline dreams are still dreamed, in the U.S. and elsewhere, we can just watch in awe, how the public and most influential circles don’t get it, prioritizing, judging, based on their peers and group think, instead of the best science. Hochmut kommt vor the Fall.
Pride comes before a fall
A person who is extremely proud of his or her abilities will often suffer a setback or failure, because he or she tends to be overconfident and to make errors of judgment.