Are the heat waves really getting more extreme? This question popped up after the summer of 2003 in Europe, and yet again after this hot Russian summer. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which normally doesn’t make much noise about climate issues, has since made a statement about July global mean temperature being record warm:
Consistent with widespread media reports of extreme heat and adverse impacts in various places, the latest results from ERA-Interim indicate that the average temperature over land areas of the extratropical northern hemisphere reached a new high in July 2010. May and June 2010 were also unusually warm.
Here, the ERA-Interim, also referred to as ‘ERAINT’, is the ECMWF’s state-of-the-art reanalysis. But the ERAINT describes the atmospheric state only since 1989, and in isolation, it is not the ideal data set for making inferences about long-term climate change because it doesn’t go all that far back in time. However, the statement also draws on the longer reanalysis known as the ERA40 re-analysis, spanning the time interval 1957-2002. Thus, taken into context of ERA40, the ECMWF has some legitimacy behind their statement.
The ERAINT reanalysis is a product of all suitable measurements fed into a model of the atmosphere, describing all the known relevant physical laws and processes. Basically, reanalyses represent the most complete and accurate picture that we can give for the day-to-day atmosphere, incorporating all useful information we have (satellites, ground observations, ships, buoys, aircrafts, radiosondes, rawinsondes). They can also be used to reconstruct things at finer spatial and temporal scales than is possible using met station data, based on physical rules provided by weather models.
The reanalyses are closely tied to the measurements at most locations where observations – such as 2-meter temperature, T(2m), or surface pressure – are provided and used in the data assimilation. Data assimilation is a way of making the model follow the observations as closely as possible at the locations where they are provided, hence constraining the atmospheric model. The constraining of the atmospheric model affect the predictions where there are no observations because most of the weather elements – except for precipitation – do not change abruptly over short distance (mathematically, we say that they are described by ‘spatially smooth and slowly changing functions’).
There are also locations – notably the in the Polar regions and over Africa – where ground-based measurements are sparse, and where much is left for the weather models to predict without observational constraints. In such regions, the description may be biased by model shortcomings, and different reanalysis may provide a different regional picture of the surface conditions. Surface variables such as T(2m) are strongly affected by their environment, which may be represented differently in different weather models (e.g. different spatial resolution implies different altitudes) and therefore is a reason for differences between reanalyses.
Furthermore, soil moisture may affect T(2m), linking temperature to precipitation. The energy flow (heat fluxes) between the ground/lakes/sea and the atmosphere may also affect surface temperatures. However, both precipitation and heat fluxes are computed by the reanalysis atmosphere model without direct constraints, and are therefore only loosely tied to the observations fed into the models. Furthermore, both heat fluxes and precipitation can vary substantially over short distances, and are often not smooth spatial functions.
While the evidence suggesting more extremely high temperatures are mounting over time, the number of resources offering data is also growing. Some of these involve satellite borne remote sensing instruments, but many data sets do not incorporate such data.
In the book “A Vast Machine“, Paul N. Edwards discusses various types of data and how all data involve some type of modelling, even barometers and thermometers. It also provides an account on the observational network, models, and the knowledge we have derived from these. Myles Allen has written a review of this book in Nature, and I have reviewed it for Physics World (subscription required for the latter).
All data need to be screened though a quality control, to eliminate misreadings, instrument failure, or other types of errors. A typical screening criterion is to check whether e.g. the temperature estimated by satellite remote sensing is unrealistically high, but sometimes such screening may also throw out valid data, such as was the case of the Antarctic ozone hole. Such post-processing is done differently in analyses, satellite measurements, and reanalyses.
The global mean temperature estimated from the ERAINT, however, is not very different from other analyses or reanalyses (see figure below) for the time they overlap. We also see a good agreement between the ERA40 reanalysis, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and the traditional datasets – analyses – of gridded temperature (GISTEMP, HadCRUT3v, NCDC).
Do the ERAINT and ERA40 provide a sufficient basis for making meaningful
inferences about extreme temperatures and unprecedented heat waves? An important point with reanalyses, is that the model used doesn’t change over the time spanned by the analysis, but reanalyses are generally used with caution for climate change studies because the number and type of observations being fed into the computer model changes over time. Changes in the number of observations and instruments is also an issue affecting the more traditional analyses.
Since the ERAINT only goes as far back as 1989, it involves many modern satellite-borne remote sensing measurements, and it is believed that there are less problems with observational network discontinuity after this date than in the earlier days. It may be more problematic studying trends in the ERA40 data, due to huge improvements in the observational platforms between 1958 and now. Hence, it is important also to look at individual long-term series of high quality. These series have to be ‘homogeneous’, meaning that they need to reflect the local climate variable consistently through its span, not being affected by changes in the local environment, instrumentation, and measurement practices.
An analysis I published in 2004, looking at how often record-high monthly temperatures recur, indicated that record-breaking monthly mean temperature have been more frequent that they would have been if the climate were not getting hotter. This analysis supports the ECMWF statement, and was based on a few high-quality temperature series scattered across our planet, chosen to be sufficiently far from each other to minimize mutual dependencies that can bias the analysis.
The ECMWF provides data for some climate indices, such as the global mean temperature, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a web site for extreme temperatures and precipitation around the world with an interactive map, showing the warmest and coldest sites on the continents. Another useful tool is the KNMI ClimateExplorer, where people can both access data and carry out different analyses on line. It is also possible to get climate data on your iPhone/iPod Touch through Apps like Climate Mobile.
Update: I just learned that NOAA recently has launched a Climate Services Portal on www.climate.gov.
Update: http://rimfrost.no/ is another site that provides station-based climate data. The site shows linear trends estimated for the last 50 years.
Look, I’m leaving RealClimate. I just had another long, careful post–the second in a row–fail on CAPTCHA, and every time that happens and I resubmit, I get a “duplicate message” error and nothing gets posted. It’s just too bloody difficult to post here. Sorry.
[Response: In those cases, it just needs to be fished out of the spam bucket (as I have done). – gavin]
OT, but not without interest on the historical comments: Jefferson was personally acquainted/engaged with researchers of his day. An example would be Joseph Priestley, generally credited with discovering oxygen (and who certainly did isolate it in the lab.) Priestley is an important figure in the history of chemistry, as I suppose many readers here will be well aware. (Although he never abandoned phlogiston theory, which made him much less relevant from a theoretical perspective toward the end of his scientific career.) Less well-known is that he emigrated to the US in 1794 due to political/religious pressure. He was a friend and correspondent with Jefferson and they consulted with each other on their respective educational ventures.
Of course–though I write it regretfully–by concentrating on Jefferson, we’re essentially engaging in a form of cherry-picking; he was a serious “outlier,” as President Kennedy’s famous quip during the 1962 Nobelists’ White House dinner dramatizes.
Madison‘s (NC) “studies … included Latin, Greek, science, geography, mathematics”.
Pinckney (SC) graduated from Christ Church College, Oxford with degrees in science and law … continued his education in France for another year, studying botany and chemistry”
McHenry (MD) and McClurg (VA) were physicians.
Carroll (MD) studied under the Jesuits, and it is very likely received a good science education as a result (IIRC).
One could go on I suspect, but…
Bob @ 169:
We have about 9GW nameplate capacity of wind turbines sticking out of the ground here in Texas and solar is cropping up like mad. We’re plenty capable of being however arrogant we need to be in order to get the job done. Which is the real natural resource of Texas — not oil, gas or water.
Re: reCaptcha (#252),
FWIW, I don’t have that experience. If I run into “duplicate message”, it usually gets posted. If reCaptcha turns me down, a click on the “back” arrow brings up my text again. It’s a minor annoyance for commenters that probably saves the moderator a major spam-shoveling effort.
That being said, it does seem as if reCaptcha has largely exhausted its store of decipherable texts, with diminishing returns. I used to enjoy the serendipitous mottos it turned up, and I was happy to help out digitalizing old books by deciphering hard-to-write text. But now it hardly ever seems to come up with any real words anymore, only typos too strange to even guess the intended meaning. Right now, for instance, I’m looking at “apoldly left,” and typing in “apoldly” feels like purposely misleading the OCR program. (Wiki informs me that Apold was Peron’s propaganda chief, so it’s not totally un-serendipitous, but I doubt that was the intended word.) Hitting the “recycle” button gives me “refolf blood”. What’s that, they’re scanning the original Beowulf manuscript? And so on.
I’m not calling for it to be scrapped, though, as long as it keeps the spambots out and doesn’t prevent commenting altogether.
(At “winiting everyday” I felt lucky enough to hit submit…)
255 (Furry CatHerder),
Arrogance is absolutely a valuable commodity, one to be admired, and one not to be taken lightly. It’s part of how one gets from here to there, when no one else things that getting there is even possible.
And I have no doubt that there’s a can-do cultural component to Texas that will eventually help them out of their predicament.
The problem is, there’s also a fat-cat “don’t wanna listen” attitude that will not only slow down response to the problem, but also hurt a whole lot of people other than Texans. “Can do” is admirable. “Screw the rest of you because we can,” not so much.
Americans take a lot of pride in their role in WW II, but tend to forget that leading up to WW II the country was a very isolationist, with an “it’s not our problem” attitude. If we hadn’t had our own interests in the Pacific and conflicts with the Japanese, who in turn allied themselves with Germany and Italy and pushed things toward open conflict, all of Europe might be speaking German today… or have been overrun by the Soviets and still be communist. [Not to mention the value in having a leader, FDR, who was willing to actually lead, rather than kowtow to public opinion.]
Fifty years from now you may well see the same thing, people taking immense pride in the way that America tackled the issue of climate change with innovation, and vim and vigor… and they’ll forget that in the early twenty first century, a population of “haves” fought tooth and nail to resist doing the slightest little thing about the problem, merely to protect their own particular, personal interests and standing in society, and so making the problem that much worse and the solutions that much later in coming.
Right, according to Secular Animalists Newton was not a scientist. Physicists are shocked. Try that line somewhere else, the stupid ain;’t strong enough here
BPL @ 251:
Not to be a party-pooper, but please remember that both Denmark and Portugal and very small countries. There are a lot of people on the planet who get 100% of their energy from renewables. If you want to use a good example, pick Germany. Or Texas — wind turbines are the new “cash crop” in many parts of the state, and Texas isn’t small.
Vendicar Decarian, very admirable (246). But, do you have any reason to believe everyone in the country could do the same, even if they wanted to? Curious: what will you do for night electric power?
BPL: Sorry, that’s just wrong. We get 75 times as much solar energy at Earth’s surface as ALL our energy use. Four or five times with wind. Denmark gets 20% of its electricity from wind and is aiming for 50% by 2020; Portugal gets 45% of its electricity from renewables.
Sorry it is just plain right.
Furrycatherder:
Not to be a party-pooper, but please remember that both Denmark and Portugal and very small countries. There are a lot of people on the planet who get 100% of their energy from renewables. If you want to use a good example, pick Germany. Or Texas — wind turbines are the new “cash crop” in many parts of the state, and Texas isn’t small.
Germany does not get 100% of its energy from renewables. Who told you that lie? Texas has winds and therefore they can use wind turbines.
The Earth will NEVER be 100% powered by renewables; absolutely impossible. Windmills are too inefficient and solar panels cannot be used efficiently everywhere. Solar boilers are a big help to be sure but they are not going to solve all the energy problems. We will still need: natural gas, some coal, hydro-electric etc…
In regards to Germany is this what you meant to say:
“Berlin, Germany [RenewableEnergyWorld.com] Germany’s Reichstag in Berlin is set to become the first parliamentary building in the world to be powered 100 percent by renewable energy. Soon the entire country will follow suit. Germany is accelerating its efforts to become the world’s first industrial power to use 100 percent renewable energy — and given current momentum, it could reach that green goal by 2050.”
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/04/germany-the-worlds-first-major-renewable-energy-economy
It is not 2050 yet now is it? Germany has quite a few people to be sure but 82 million and change is no where near the population of the US, India or China… even with efforts by China and India in ‘geern tech’ there are great limitations.
Eli Rabett: “according to Secular Animalists Newton was not a scientist”
The word “scientist” did not exist during Newton’s lifetime. Newton himself referred to his own field of inquiry as “natural philosophy”.
That doesn’t meant that “Newton was not a scientist” nor did I say that.
Jim and P. Lewis, thanks for the corrections. Jefferson was not a writer of the Constitution, but that was a particular detail not dominating the main discussion.
I have had no trouble with reCAPTCHA, FWIW.
Rod B: Curious: what will you do for night electric power?
I guess Rod has never heard of inverters or batteries.
Yes, there is every reason to believe everyone in the country could do the same, if they wanted to.
Jacob Mack wrote: “Solar boilers are a big help to be sure but they are not going to solve all the energy problems.”
Multiple studies have found that concentrating solar thermal power plants (which I assume is what you mean by “solar boilers”) on only five percent of the USA’s desert lands could generate more electricity than the entire country uses.
Multiple studies have found that the commercially exploitable wind energy resources of only four midwestern states could generate more electricity than the entire country uses.
Add to those the huge potential of distributed PV, plus the onshore wind energy resources of the rest of the country, plus the vast offshore wind energy resource, and our “problem” becomes having more electricity than we know what to do with.
With all due respect, your assertion is ill-informed and simply wrong, no matter how many times you repeat it.
The anti-spam filter is out of hand. I just spent 5 minutes composing a short message which might’ve had the word “p r e s c r i p t i o n” in it and the message was lost.
Jacob, Germany’s population may not be near US, let alone China levels, but don’t forget that it’s relative energy use does not match it’s comparatively low population (although it’s still the most populous cuntry in Europe!) – it is, after all, one of the biggest nations worldwide in terms of it’s industrial output. It’s energy need is massive and in that sense, and compared to the paltry efforts of the US, a goal of near 100% renewable energy use in a bare four decades is VERY remarkable indeed.
Jacob Mack (261) says: “The Earth will NEVER be 100% powered by renewables; absolutely impossible. Windmills are too inefficient and solar panels cannot be used efficiently everywhere. Solar boilers are a big help to be sure but they are not going to solve all the energy problems. We will still need: natural gas, some coal, hydro-electric etc…”
That’s a rather grandiose position statement that seeks to put the kibosh on any progress in sustainable energy use. But it is also incoherent and shrill. It implies many assumptions many that must be addressed, such as:
1. Human population cannot be controlled and will only increase.
2. The consumer culture of use and dispose is a necessity.
3. The ability to travel far and wide at ever faster speeds is a requirement.
4. The environment will be conducive to the continual exploitation of fossil-based fuels.
5. An endless supply exists of such fuels.
6. His personal comfort level is a priority for all of us.
I don’t believe those assumptions can be supported. To settle on technologies that are at least 100 years old in the face of all the accelerating progress since then seems blind. There are many ways out of this mess. If we can’t find some soon that maintain a pleasant standard of living for all of us, then many, if not all, are bound to suffer lives of desperation as the forces of entropy overtake us. Jacob’s attitude is a barrier that must be overcome. And it will, for good or bad.
Edward Greisch (249), a government with agencies that have to report to no one is called tyranny. A government that has no check and balances and is designed for fully efficient operations soon becomes a fascist tyranny. Desiring a tyranny is your right (until of course we actually get a tyranny — then not so much unless you’re lucky enough to be one of the boots.) Don’t get me wrong: I’m aware you do not desire this cognitively but just want to accomplish something that you are convinced is important (and it could be — but that’s not the point.) It is almost serendipity re other OT here, but it is that attitude, well-intentioned as it is, that was the number one fundamental factor our forefathers had to insure could not be.
What we have is (mostly…) a government of laws. What you want is a government of men/women. Let’s let Carol Browner or Obama decide everything for us without restraint? Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Madison, et al would vomit.
You are fully accepting of the EPA’s legalities because they think they have found a “clever” (your description) loophole. The CAA explicitly has the 100/250 ton permitting requirement. The EPA has no authority to unilaterally change that without going through the full analysis and hearings process (maybe not even then). Yet they did with their Tailoring Rule. How? By employing the clause that allows them to make some changes that are “non-substantive,” meaning not much different from a typo, or “an interpretive document” in their words, which they declared much of their GHG regulations to be.
I think you are probably right in that the EPA does know what it’s doing. No way to know for sure, but I think they knew precisely that they could get the mobile source regulation through without too much fuss and — surprise (‘we didn’t know that!’) — “find” it has to cover stationary sources too, which otherwise might have given them grief. Efficient? Yes. Legal? Probably in the exact meaning of the term. Appropriate? Ethical? Following the spirit of the law? Not even close!
Me sue or talk to the EPA? Do you believe they give a tinker’s damn what a lowly member of a democratic populace thinks about anything?
Somone posted a while back about the rather warm 2003 European summer revealing some ancient artifacts in the Swiss Alps. Realclimate responded that the writer was mistaken, and that they really referred to the “Ice man” discovered in 1991. I finally found the link to the 2003 event, which details finds in several distinct time periods, with the most recent about 600 years ago.
http://climateaudit.org/2005/11/18/archaeological-finds-in-retreating-swiss-glacier/
Jacob Mack: I found your comment hilarious, thank you for the amusement.
Perhaps you are unaware of the humour. You point out that Denmark and Portugal are very small countries. And you are absolutely right. They have very limited space, and relatively high population densities. Far higher than the US, for example.
But land is one of the biggest limitations when relying on renewables. If these little countries can fit it in, think how much easier it will be in the US’s “wide open spaces”.
And that’s just considering wind and sun, both of which can be found in most temperate areas. There are all sorts of other options available beyond that.
Now, do you have any arguments that actually make sense?
PS: Even countries with really, really limited space, such as islands like the UK can theoretically supply all their energy needs from renewables. However, under such circumstances, nuclear power or importing solar power become reasonable options. I think importing solar power is a bit “out there”, but we may end up doing it before we reach the end.
270 Rod B: \a government with agencies that have to report to no one is called tyranny.\
ALL government agencies have to report to multiple elected officials, as I said: The president, congressional oversight committees, individual congressmen and senators. They are also overseen by the courts, which means the public and NGOs that watch them constantly. Also, the bureaucrats are us, ordinary Americans who are ready to waltz anything unconstitutional to the House to begin impeachment hearings.
[We bureaucrats include ALL federal employees. Most federal employees do not call themselves bureaucrats, but if you get your paycheck from any government, you are either a politician or a bureaucrat. Working bureaucrats get bad press that we are not allowed to answer until we retire. Politicians need to blame their mistakes on federal employees, so they passed the Hatch Act.]
Your [edit] rant is outside the pale, inflammatory, borders on political and should have been edited. It has no place in any discussion of the US government. American federal employees will not put up with tyranny.
Federal agencies are required by law to promulgate regulations so that the law can be carried out. The law cannot be long enough all by itself if congress is to ever get anything done. I’m sorry that you don’t understand the system, but that is for you to learn about. You could get yourself a degree in government.
Didactylos Quote: “Jacob Mack: I found your comment hilarious, thank you for the amusement.” Thank you, as I found your unfounded response equally amusing.
El Wyatt quote:
“That’s a rather grandiose position statement that seeks to put the kibosh on any progress in sustainable energy use. But it is also incoherent and shrill. It implies many assumptions many that must be addressed, such as:
1. Human population cannot be controlled and will only increase.
2. The consumer culture of use and dispose is a necessity.
3. The ability to travel far and wide at ever faster speeds is a requirement.
4. The environment will be conducive to the continual exploitation of fossil-based fuels.
5. An endless supply exists of such fuels.
6. His personal comfort level is a priority for all of us.”
No matter what the future holds fossil fuels will play some role if human civilization is still here. Grandiosity is a whole other point of contention. I wish we could be completely divorced from fossil fuels but not peer reviewed article or accurate textbook in the world says we can nor can we expect all other countries to comply with demands the US makes that we do not even follow.
SA, I will simply ask you for links on such research and how it it be transported. High power lines, yes ok to a point but to everywhere, how?
Those arguing both sides of renewable energy, with plenty of flat-out mistakes to go around, first ought to read David McKay’s “Sustainable energy — without the hot air”. It is available on-line.
SA Newton was a scientist no matter what he saw himself as and a mathematician. The philosophy of science shows us that at times even Newton did not understand himself and adding to Eli’s point that the terminology was a little different then does not bar the fact that Newton was a scientist anways.
flxible, inverters at midnight are about as useful as you-know-what on a boar. My main question was and is: do you really think 150 million or so drivers can get to 20 gal. of gasoline per year? (Or are you thinking 90 years from now?) …the average home owner cut electricity usage from 2000 more or less kWhr/month to 150 kWhr/mo (though it wasn’t clear if Vendicar’s usage was including his PV)? I was also just asking about batteries: if Vendicar’s 5kWhr/day determines his nighttime battery requirement, that’s fairly easily managed; 50-75kWhr/day gets tough — not too bad if sized for overnight use, not very good if you want the recommended 3-day/24-hr capacity.
El Wyatt, “…If we can’t find some soon that maintain a pleasant standard of living for all of us….” so long as, as you imply, we stop having kids (#1), quit buying stuff (#2), cease traveling to Grandma’s house (#3), and stop being comfortable (#6)??
And thank you David. I like renewables as part of the solution but your reference also comfirms what I am saying:
http://www.withouthotair.com/synopsis10.pdf
Jacob Mack @276 — Don’t know for sure about Newton, but his contemporary Robert Hooke, now known as the first professional scientist, thought of himself and his fellows in the Royal Society as Baconists; a form of natural philosophy.
Edward Greisch, but the government you defend in 273 is precisely what you implied in 249 was screwing up the works and should be “fixed.” And if you think the laws passed actually and legally say, “Agencies! Go do whatever you think best!” you’re the one in need of government lessons.
Miscellany: if one reads reCaptcha words only three letters at a time — not whole words — and squink your eyes, it’s not bad.
#232
Hank, Jefferson didn’t have anything to do with the Constitution. He was in France during the Convention and denigrated the delegates that did attend.
The main architect of the Constitution was James Madison who mainly studied Political Philosophy and Hebrew.
Regarding Newton, it is best to remember that what appears to be science in one era may not look like it in another. He spent much of his life dabbling in alchemy and trying to calculate the date for the end of the world. Good news for us – it won’t come earlier than 2060 despite global warmists predictions to the contrary :).
David B. Benson #275
Nobody should read David MacKay’s “Sustainable energy — without the hot air” unless they understand that David MacKay does not accept the Second Law of Thermodynamics, and basically states this on page 27 of that referenced book.
Many of us are lazy louts when we take freshman physics and thus are happy to take the easy path when doing energy conversions, where the lure that a kWhr is a kWhr alleviates a need to understand the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Through the diligence of Prof. Eck at Case, I was treated to the opportunity to show my true nature on a pop quiz. Fortunately, it shaped me up in time for the real tests that counted.
Apparently Dr, Prof, Chief Advisor to the UK DOE and Climate David MacKay did not have the benefit of having a teacher like Prof. Eck. Thus he states, he states that it is “time honored” to hold a kWhr of heat to be equal to a kWhr of electrical energy. Yes, he goes through a discussion that supposedly justifies this nonsense which I paste as a quote here:
“In this book, however, I will usually use a
one-to-one conversion rate when comparing different forms of energy. It
is not the case that 2.5 kWh of oil is inescapably equivalent to 1 kWh of
electricity; that just happens to be the perceived exchange rate in a worldview where oil is used to make electricity. Yes, conversion of chemical energy to electrical energy is done with this particular inefficient exchange rate. But electrical energy can also be converted to chemical energy. In an alternative world (perhaps not far-off) with relatively plentiful electricity and little oil, we might use electricity to make liquid fuels; in that world we would surely not use the same exchange rate – each kWh of gasoline would then cost us something like 3 kWh of electricity! I think the timeless and scientific way to summarize and compare energies is to hold 1 kWh of chemical energy equivalent to 1 kWh of electricity. My choice to use this one-to-one conversion rate means that some of my sums will look a bit different from other people’s. (For example, BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy rates 1 kWh of electricity as equivalent to 100/38 ≃ 2.6 kWh of oil; on the other hand, the government’s Digest of UK Energy Statistics uses the same one-to-one conversion rate as me.) And I emphasize again, this choice does not imply that I’m suggesting you could convert either form of energy directly into the other. Converting chemical energy into electrical energy always wastes energy, and so does converting electrical into chemical energy.”
Prof. MacKay thus attempts to set a basis for energy conversions in a future world of sustainable energy as he expects it, where in that circumstance the Second Law would not apply. But the logic of this is absurd, since in that future world there would be no basis for conversion of any kind.
But the rest of his book rests on the one to one conversion, so the entire book turns out to be bogus. And in fact makes the electric vehicle look three times better than it is, when compared with cars that carry their own engines.
I conjecture that the quoted passage was written by a staffer who was determined to promote electric vehicles, and MacKay let it go by. No real physicist would go for this, which amounts to a repeal of the Second Law of Thermodynamics by a government authority. (MacKay need not feel bad about this; there seem to be abundant counterparts to him throughout the world.)
# 280 David B. Benson: Certainly of interest and I am not denying they all may have thought of themselves in different terms and for obvious reasons but at the time they were certainly the scientists in my opinion. Thanks again for the information though.
I just picked up on the discussion of the EPA.
Reading: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/CCS-Task-Force-Report-2010.pdf —-
— it is not clear whether the EPA is aware that a ton of CO2 is 12/44 real carbon.
Their analysis concludes that capturing a ton of CO2 will cost up to $95. The fact that they do not relate this finding to the cost of using a ton of coal, suggests that they are trying to obfuscate the impact of this cost on users of a ton of coal. On the other hand, it seems possible that they do not know that carbon is not CO2.
The impact of course is that burning 12/44 ton of carbon produces a ton of CO2 and burning about 24/44 ton of Powder River Basin coal produces a ton of CO2. Thus the capture cost is 44/24 times $95 which is added to the roughly $20 per ton that is now the cost of that coal including an estimate for transportation. We are talking roughly $200 per ton versus $20 per ton. Does anyone think this is encouraging of business expansion?
Jim Bullis, Miastrada Company @283 — He is a real physicist, even F.R.S. at quite a young age:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_J._C._MacKay
and here is a decent review of his book:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/20/mackay_on_carbon_free_uk/
You completely misunderstand the import of the paragraphs you quoted. But, of course, you can always redo his figures your own way; whatever, those numbers have to add up and you’ll surely come to essentially the same conclusions. Not quite the same since you can make some assumptions about hydrocarbons from fungi, for example, as long as you use realistic numbers regarding the (future) ability of the GM fungi or even algae to do their thing. Oh yes, also look at STEP technology; maybe that is an actual winner.
Re #283
I think you will find out that the book came out before David M had anything to do with government. I don’t see what is so wrong with the quoted paragraph which explicitly discusses the 2nd law and also anticipates a time when electricity would no longer be made from fossil fuel. This would immediately give all electrical machines a relative advantage (from the CO2 standpoint) which they don’t have at present.
Jim Bullia (#283)
You are aware that MacKay released his book (off his own bat, online, for free) long before he became an advisor to DECC?
It is true that heat is a lower-grade form of energy, but when talking about renewables this is not particularly relevent since the main sources of renewable energy produce electricity directly without running an intermediate heat engine – think wind power, photovoltaics, hydroelectric, tidal. This is in contrast to our current methods of using gas or coal to create heat and subsequently electricity at ~40% efficiency or less. (Possible exceptions are solar thermal, either in a solar tower or in direct water-heating, and geothermal. You will notice that he does comment on solar heating being lower-grade energy, e.g. on page 53.)
In any case, it is ridiculous to write off the whole book on the basis of one flawed critique. And as an aside, one suspects Prof MacKay, as a Cambridge physicist, has a rather deeper grasp of thermodynamics than yourself.
Jacob Mack – MacKay calculates that UK cannot produce enough renewables to power itself without borrowing other countries renewables OR using non-renewables. Now read the chapter for the US or the world as a whole.
Jim Bullis – I am quite sure that MacKay unders 2nd Law but as he points out there is a difficulty in absolute energy calculation. If you generate electricty for cars from chemical reaction, then yes, you need 3 times the input for each kilowatt, (though the efficiency of electric vehicles in converting electrical to kinetics still makes the electric vehicles look slightly better). However, if you produce the electricity from say hydro, then you need way less hydro than a straight conversion of litres petrol used x kWh/litres would tell you. Since this is the focus of the calculations, then it looks valid to me.
261, Jacob Mack: The Earth will NEVER be 100% powered by renewables; absolutely impossible.
Why?
Production (or perhaps “harvesting”) is growing exponentially. Computations (based on measurements) show that the energy is there. Costs are declining. Technologies (emphasis on the plural) are being improved.
“NEVER” is a pretty extreme claim.
Best to check Amazon for reviews of “A Vast Machine,” as both of the others cited require a paying subscription.
“a government with agencies that have to report to no one is called tyranny.”
I trust the professionals agencies a lot more than the politicians who are getting money from the fossil fuel interests.
Some politicians serve the fossil fuel interests that give them money, and money is even coming from outside the country disguised as payment for professional services. Congressman Weldon’s daughter got 500,000 dollars for “consulting” for a Russian/American gas company–Itera. Really this was payment for Weldon’s political advocacy.
Governments have always had agencies whether they were called that or not.
They answer to an elected government.
All this Ayn Rand stuff is coming from the Cato Institute, and their global warming person, Andrei Illarionov, “used to” work for the head of the Soviet gas monopoly, Chernomyrdin, and for Putin.
The monopolies just don’t want any rules or competition from renewables. They pay the politicians to stomp out competition and to persecute scientists.
Someone must have missed a few zeroes “We get 75 times as much solar energy at Earth’s surface as ALL our energy use.”.
If I plug in the radius of the earth squared times pi times a tousand watts per meter squared I get 127000 Terawatts of incoming solar energy. It is closer to ten thousand times our current usage than a hundred.
And we get the usual overwhelming fear of letting government do anything, “that would be tyranny”. The key to government, and just about anything is moderation. We give government some power, because society has agreed that the tradeoffs are worth it. Government will get on my case if I try to drive 100 miles per hour on the wrong side of the road! Oh, the horrible tyranny, of having traffic enforcement! Any suggestion of any sort of regulation is always met with the same hysterical kneejerk response.
> Jefferson … Constitution
True, he was out of the country, and didn’t sign the first version.
But look what he did when he got back:
http://www.google.com/search?q=“Thomas+Jefferson”+constitution+amendment
Don’t mistake the first signed text for a foundation cornerstone that, if shaken, would shake everything built afterward.
Important early work gets amended and improved; that’s Jefferson’s explicit contribution there.
Yes, there are people who think a “founder” or a “foundation document” is something to defend unchanged — or to attack. Notice how that same idea comes up in climate, from people who don’t understand science.
Rod @ 277:
I dunno. If I want to put something in the microwave at midnight and my neighbors are without electricity, my two inverters come in quite handy.
We had a power outage the other night for about 90 minutes. Supposedly a transformer blew up. I turned the lights on in case a neighbor needed electricity. In the dark.
“But, do you have any reason to believe everyone in the country could do the same, even if they wanted to? Curious: what will you do for night electric power?” – 260
At night I light with CF and now some LED lighting. The LED lights are 1 watt and are fine for the front hallway. I keep one of them on all night, because, well why not? They provide enough light to navigate but you wouldn’t read there.
The light in this room is from a single 26 watt CF, the lights in my kitchen which are also on are from 3, 16 watt CF and in the dining room I have a 18 watt florescent fixture.
I also use 1, one watt bulb for the porch light. It is enough to illuminate the house number and front door.
All of the other lights are CF and are off until I need them.
Wall transformers add up to 18 watts now – some are on switches. They used to add to more than 100 watts.
TV went into the dumpster when George Bush was elected.
PC is constantly on, and pulls 120 watts approx.
Electric water heating 1KwH per day, refrigeration similar.
Ceiling fans in the summer are about 60 watts while they are on.
Cooking unknown.
I’ve just purchased an additional thermal blanket for the hot water tank. It will be interesting to see how much energy is saved. I suspect no more than 1/4 of a Kilowatt hour per day.
The passive heating system will consist of a series of 3 x 8 boxes hung on the south facing wall. That wall is 16 square meters in area, and I figure I should get at least 11,000 watts of solar thermal during the daylight hours, which should be enough to keep the house warm for half the day.
So that should reduce my natural gas consumption to 1.5 or maybe 1 m**3 per day. I know I lose a lot of heat through the floor of this single story house, and multiple issues have to be resolved in order to insulate the crawlspace below, but I anticipate I should be able to reduce the heat loss through the floor by at least half. So I am expecting a final fuel consumption rate of under 1m**3 of gas per day when all of the easy stuff has been done.
Can other people reduce their consumption like this?
Absolutely, although depending on the situation with varying degrees of success.
My lifestyle has improved by going this route. While other people bitch and moan about the cost of gasoline, I couldn’t care less. Heating fuel costs going up 20 percent? Yawn, Electricity rates are doubling? Who cares I pay $10.00 a month for the energy component of the bill.
Plus the house is warmer in winter, cooler in summer, etc. etc. etc…
281 Rod B: You are very good at intentional misinterpretation. Congratulations. No law ever said ““Agencies! Go do whatever you think best!””. The agencies, as I said, do their best to obey the law to the letter. I know where you are getting your nonsense. I would like to get on national TV and say: “Senator McConnell, I did exactly what you said to do, exactly the way you said to do it; and if you wanted me to do something different some other way, you should have written the law that way.” Since Mitch McConnell is a senator, if Senator Mitch McConnell doesn’t want the agencies to write regulations to implement the laws that Senator Mitch McConnell writes, Senator Mitch McConnell can change the law. Congress is in charge. When an elected official says: “Jump!” the appointed official says “How high?” on the way up.
The result of agencies not writing regulations would be that laws would have to be millions of pages long. Laws are already too long at thousands of pages. Not even a SuperSenator like Senator Mitch McConnell can accomplish writing laws that are millions of pages long. That is why Congress ordained that agencies shall write regulations to implement laws.
As I also said, there are a lot of inputs to the process of writing and carrying out regulations. Since we live in a form of a democracy called a republic, one of those inputs is via the courts. Another input is via public comments and public hearings. From time to time, regulations implementing one unchanged law must be changed. Such is the change required when the conservative Supreme Court of the US declared that CO2 is a pollutant under the Clean Air Act. I am hoping that there will be another such time when the same court says that the EPA erred when it declared coal ash to be harmless. It is very likely that some previous senator, if not Senator Mitch McConnell himself, pressured the EPA into making that erroneous determination in 1984. Since 1984, it has become common and scientific knowledge that CO2 production by humans is and will have disastrous consequences. That is new information not available in present form to the EPA in 1984. A change in the regulation is called for, but there is no need to change the law.
Please tell me you did not mean this:
http://www.olino.org/us/articles/2009/07/06/desertec-can-provide-whole-europe-with-solar-energy
“flxible, inverters at midnight are about as useful as you-know-what on a boar.” – 277
You had better have one if you intend to run a 120 volt AC appliance from batteries. A dozen batteries equivalent in energy capacity to deep cycle marine batteries are all that are required.
“My main question was and is: do you really think 150 million or so drivers can get to 20 gal.” – 277
A very large number could. Absolutely. Done either through the conversion to 60+ mpg cars and/or electric vehicles powered by renewables of course.
But what makes you think that 150 million drivers all need to consume less than the 20 gallons per year that I consume in transportation fuel?
American society must reduce and will reduce it’s carbon based fuel consumption by 80% to 90%. Who gets to burn the remaining 10% or 20% and for what purpose is up to you.
“the average home owner cut electricity usage from 2000 more or less kWhr/month to 150 kWhr/mo (though it wasn’t clear if Vendicar’s usage was including his PV)?” – 277
I have no PV system installed. But when my consumption drops to somewhere around 4 to 5 Kwh per day, I will switch to PV and batteries.
“50-75kWhr/day gets tough — not too bad if sized for overnight use, not very good if you want the recommended 3-day/24-hr capacity.” – 277
50KwH of storage would represent 12 days of standby power. I don’t need that much. A dozen deep cycle marine battery equivalents are all that are needed. And if they are out, there is always the grid to fall back on.
I look forward to installing 12V LED lighting panels in the ceilings and walls so that the lighting can be directly run directly from DC battery power.
Currently the lighting in this house is consuming 60 watts of power. So for lighting at least, I need only 1 or 2 PV panels and two marine batteries. Those same batteries will provide 1 day of full reserve power for lighting.
LED will be slightly more efficient, and OLED significantly more efficient, and should reduce the battery requirements and PV panel requirements by about half.
This is all trivial, and hardly rocket science.
It is very simple.
Live within the environmentally sustainable limits that nature has provided you or die trying not to.