I recently came across an old copy of Arthur Koestler’s “The Case of the Midwife Toad”. Originally published in 1971, it’s an exploration of a rather tragic footnote in the history of evolutionary science. Back in the early years of the 20th Century (prior to the understanding of DNA, but after Mendelian genetics had become well known), there was still a remnant of the biological community who preferred the Lamarckian idea of the inheritance of acquired characteristics over the Darwinian idea of natural selection of random mutations. One of the vanguard for the Lamarckian idea was Paul Kammerer whose specialty was the breeding of amphibians that apparently few others could match. He claimed that he could get his toads and salamanders to acquire characteristics that were useful in the new environments in which he raised his specimens. This was touted loudly (in the New York Times for instance) as proof of Lamarckian inheritance and Kammerer was hailed as a ‘new Darwin’. It all ended very badly when one toad specimen was found to be faked (by who remains a mystery), and Kammerer killed himself shortly afterwards (though there may have been more involved than scientific disgrace).
The details of the experiments and controversy can be read online (with various slants) here and here, and a more modern non-replication of one of his experiments is described here. However, the reason I bring this up here is much more related to how the scientific community and Koestler dealt with this scientific maverick and the analogies that has for the climate science and its contrarians.
There are (at least) four points where the analogies with climate science are strong: First, there were clear philosophical motives for supporting Lamarckism (as there are for denying human effects on climate change) (see below). These are strongly articulated in Koestler’s book, and it is obvious that the author feels some sympathy with that argument. Second, there is idealization of the romantic notion of the scientist-as-hero, sacrificing their all (literally in Kammerer’s case) for the pursuit of truth in the teeth of establishment opposition (cf Svensmark). Third, there is the outrage at the apparent dirty tricks, rumours and persecution. Finally, there is the longing for a redemption – a time when the paradigm shift will occur and the hero will be proven right.
Enough time has passed and enough additional scientific evidence has been gathered however to show that Kammerer’s ideas are never going to be accepted into the mainstream. Therefore, we can use this episode to highlight how people’s misunderstanding of scientific process can lead them astray.
So let’s start with the non-scientific reasons why Kammerer’s ideas had resonance. Martin Gardner in Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science (1952) puts it well (p143):
Just as Lamarckianism combines easily with an idealism in which the entire creation is fulfilling God’s vast plan by constant upward striving, so also does it combine easily with political doctrines that emphasize the building of a better world.
The point is that without Lamarckianism, none of the striving and achievement of a parent impacts their progeny’s genetic material. That was a depressing thought for many people (what is the point of striving at all?), and hence there was a clear non-scientific yearning for Lamarckian inheritance to be correct. I use the past tense in referring to these almost 100 year-old arguments, but Koestler’s book and more recent attempts to rehabilitate these ideas tap into these same (misguided) romantic notions. (Odd aside, one of the most positive treatments of this “neo-Lamarckianism” is by Michael Duffy, a frequent climate contrarian Australian journalist). Note that I am distinguishing the classic ‘inheritance of acquired characteristics’ from the much more respectable study of epigenetics.
The scientist-as-hero meme is a very popular narrative device and is widespread in most discussions of progress in science. While it’s clearly true that some breakthroughs have happened through the work of a single person (special relativity is the classic case) and someone has to be the first to make a key observation (e.g. Watson and Crick), the vast majority of scientific progress occurs as the accumulation of small pieces of new information and their synthesis into a whole. While a focus on a single person makes for a good story, it is very rarely the whole or even a big part of the real story. Thus while Koestler can’t be uniquely faulted for thinking that Lamarckianism rose and fell with Kammerer, that perspective leads him to imbue certain events with much more significance than is really warranted.
For instance, one of the more subtle misconceptions in the book though is how Koestler thinks that scientific arguments get settled. He places enormous emphasis on a academic tour that Kammerer made to the UK which included a well-documented talk in Cambridge in which the subsequently-notorious specimen was also in attendance. In fact, Koestler devotes a large number of pages to first-hand recollections of the talk. Koestler also criticises heavily the arch-protagonist in this story (a Dr. Bateson) who did not attend Kammerer’s talk, even though he presumably could have, while continuing to criticise his conclusions. The talk is in fact held up to be the one missed opportunity for some academic mano-a-mano that Koestler presumably thinks would have settled things.
Except that this is not how controversial ideas get either accepted or rejected. Sure, publishing papers, giving talks and attending conferences are all useful in bringing ideas to a wider audience, but they are very rarely the occasion of some dramatic denouement and mass conversion of the skeptical. Instead, ideas get accepted because of the increasing weight of evidence that supports them – and that usually comes in dribs and drabs. A replication here, a theoretical insight there, a validated prediction etc. Only in hindsight does there appear to be a clean sequence of breakthroughs that can be seen to have led inexorably to the new conclusions. At the time, the landscape is far more ambiguous. Thus in focusing on one specific talk, and on its reception by one particularly outspoken opponent, Koestler misses the wider issue – which was that Kammerer’s ideas just didn’t have any independent support. The wider community thus saw his work (as far as I can tell) as a curiosity: possibly his findings were correct, but his interpretation was likely not, and maybe his findings weren’t all that reproducible in any case?
This remains the issue, if Lamarckian evolution were possible, it should have been viewable in hundreds of other systems that were much easier to replicate than Kammerer’s toads (nematodes perhaps?). Absent that replication, no amount of exciting talks will have persuaded scientists. In that, scientists are probably a little different from the public, or at least the public who went to Kammerer’s more public lectures where he was very warmly received.
In these circumstances, it is not surprising that Kammerer’s more vocal opponents would occasionally give vent to their true feelings. Koestler is particular critical of Bateson who, in retrospect, does appear to have gone a little far in his public critiques of Kammerer. However, Koestler perhaps doesn’t realise how common quite scathing criticism is in the halls of academe. This rarely gets written down explicitly, but it is nonetheless there, and forms a big part of how well some people’s ideas are received. If someone is perceived as an exaggerator, or an over-interpreter of their results, even their most careful work will not get a lot of support.
Koestler ends his book with the familiar refrain that since modern science is incomplete, alternative theories must continue to be pursued. He states that since “contemporary genetics has no answers to offer to the problem of the genesis of behaviour”, the replication the key experiments (which he clearly expected to vindicate Kammerer), would very likely make biologists ‘sit up’ and have a long-lasting impact on the field. This notion fails to take into account the vast amount of knowledge that already exists and that makes certain kinds of ‘alternative’ theories very unlikely to be true. The link between this optimistic expectation and discussions of climate change is persuasively demonstrated in this pastiche.
There is one additional characteristic of this story that has some modern resonance, and that’s the idea that once someone starts accepting one class of illogical arguments, that leads them to accept others that aren’t really connected, but share some of the same characteristics. Some people have called this ‘crank magnetism‘. In Kammerer’s case, he was a great believer in the meaningfulness of coincidences and wrote a book trying to elucidate the ‘laws’ that might govern them. Koestler himself became a big proponent of parapsychology. And today there are examples of climate contrarians who are creationists or anti-vaccine campaigners. Though possibly this is just coincidence (or is it….?).
Of course, the true worth of any scientific idea is whether it leads to more successful predictions than other theories. So I’ll finish with a 1923 prediction that Kammerer made while he was on a speaking tour of the US: “Take a very pertinent case. The next generation of Americans will be born without any desire for liquor if the prohibition law is continued and strictly enforced” (NYT, Nov 28).
Phillip Shaw you are just plain wrong, I left my references relating to my post in mountains and molehills which overlaps at several of your points here and here are other references as well:
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/394192/motion-picture-technology
Blue lasers may have been marketable later on but they existed for far longer, just pick up a Pchem book.
I will repeat this reference:”Who killed the Electric Car,” showed the technology did exist in the nineties and electric cars were once the dominate automobiles on the road. Phillip you did not work for the pentagon nor are you accurate on even one claim. The only argument you can stand on is that the HD technology did improve and that blue lasers were developed for commercial use in a mass produced format later on which I never denied.You have to get up pretty early in the morning to fool me.
here on the blue lasers: http://www.rp-photonics.com/blue_lasers.html
Rod (350)–It’s just that this question is probably going to arise in practical form quite soon, as cap and trade was important to the Obama environmental agenda. FWIW, I was somewhat skeptical about cap and trade back in the 80s because it seemed quite counterintuitive that *allowing* pollution would help eliminate it. (My then-brother-in-law, a “liberal” economist, took some pains to try and convince me on the issue, if I recall.)
It’s pretty clear–if today’s exercise in online research is correct–that cap and trade *can* work, but also pretty clear–from the same sources, especially the last–that the scheme needs to be correctly designed. So we want to be informed about whether the forthcoming proposals are a good idea or not. Which in turn was part of my motivation for the original question to you. And the essence of that question still stands–that is, if there are downsides, concerns, alternatives, caveats, or whatever to cap and trade, I’d like to know more ’em.
John Hall @ 345
I think the most common problem people have is focussing on the *noise* in surface temperature records, rather than the trends, which take decades to extract from the noise with much significance.
I think some of this is human visual systems, and some of it is that we don’t do regression calculations in our heads.
If you look at GISS charts, for example, it is clear that “warming can stop” for 5+ years at a time, and has done so fairly often. This is exactly what one expect when:
a) There are big, irregular ocean/atmosphere oscillations that move energy back and forth, and easily jiggle surface temperatures.
b) *Most* of the variable energy is stored in the oceans, i.e., Ocean Heat Content. See this RC article.
As long as there’s an energy imbalance (more energy arriving than departing), Conservation of Energy says that the energy goes *somewhere*, which is mostly the ocean. In some sense, although we care about surface temperatures because that’s where we live, if we had a longer, accurate set of OHC measurements, that one time series would tell the story, with less noise.
This is like the advice given to US high school defensive football players:
“Ignore the runner’s head-fakes. Keep your eyes on their belt-buckle.”
346 Lynn, a hybrid nuke/methane system utilizes a very poor quality (likely thorium) fuel with seeding as needed. It’s designed so that at zero output expansion and natural cooling will prevent a meltdown. This eliminates the need for expensive safety systems. (and if a meltdown starts, the seeds dilute and the reaction stops with minimal damage to the reactor) There is no need for control rods or traditional refueling as it’s more like a giant sandbox than a reactor. At baseload, the nuclear fuel will provide all the heat required. When peaking, methane (though oil or coal could be used) is burned to supplement as the reactor core cools — though thermal mass helps moderate that need. The nuclear component is huge and stable so it’s way cheap. After all, nuclear power is durn near free except for refueling, control, waste, and safety systems. This type of system gets around all four of those requirements, and uses unenriched fuel to boot. Only the seeds pose an issue, and the quantity needed is incredibly small. They’d be a good end-use for all those nuclear bombs we’ve got lying around.
The big bonus is that the front end nuke could be retrofitted to existing hydrocarbon systems. Those dirty coal plants could become 90% cleaner. So hybrid nukes do baseload and as little peaking as possible, alternative energy does peaking (especially solar on hot sunny days and wind on cold windy nights), transportation fuel generation is used to balance the system, and suddenly, the whole CO2 issue is solvable.
Re: #354 (John Mashey)
Amen brother! I’ve been trying to educate people about the noise in temperature records for some time.
Not only is the noise sizeable, it’s complex — definitely not “white noise.” You can find some details here.
There’s no statistically valid evidence that global warming has stopped, or even slowed. None.
Re Robert H @290: “Its worth remembering that there is a direct and proportional relationship between energy consumption and standard of living”
Only up to a point. As the chart in the video of Steven Chu at the National Energy Summit that is making the rounds shows, standard of living ultimately hits a ceiling and further rise in energy consumption yields little if any rise in living standard. Most of the industrialized west is at and well along that ceiling, with ample room for reduction in energy consumption before it would negatively affect standard of living in any meaningful way.
It’s pretty hard to feel any sympathy for those used to driving a gas guzzling SUV, or two or three, and living in a 5000 square foot McMansion having to cut back their standard of living to match someone driving a more efficient passenger sedan, or horrors, taking public transit or even walking to work, while living in an 1800 square foot townhouse.
In other words, cry us a river. The party is over.
#329 matt
You’ve obviously thought this through and have probably already answered this question, so forgive me if I missed the answer. How much is your plan going to cost?
Final reference for Phillip,yes I will get stoned here as it is wikipedia based: http://www.experiencefestival.com/1940s_-_technology
Then again there were HD bands for radio in the 1940’s http://am-iboc.blogspot.com/2007/10/marketing-radio-1940s-style.html
#351 jcbmack
And global warming is a hoax, see “the great global warming swindle” :-)
The EV’s of the 90’s were a little more than prototypes. Do you know how much they cost to produce? Even today an electric car can not compete on a cost basis. The technology may be there, but if it’s not affordable, it’s useless. The reason why we do not have electric cars is simply that cheap batteries are too heavy and light batteries are too expensive.
But now you’ve made me curious. Can you name a few EV’s with the specs you stated?
Batteries have come such a long way and since the nineties they have approached that goal Matt, if only this administration will help fund for these changes as companies that can assist do to take in a larger new market share and revenue stream which should result in bottom line profits. Also for Matt and Phillip my references can also be confirmed by encylopedia Britannica.
1990s: http://www.eaaev.org/History/index.html
jcbmack,
You are mildly entertaining, but you are so, so wrong.
On the topic of blue lasers, your claim in #334 refers to their availability to the public, i.e. the use of blue diode lasers in consumer products, but your own cite indicates that, as I correctly said, they were first developed in the mid-90s. Which hardly makes them “old technology” as you claimed. Granted there are various types of blue lasers, but only the laser diode technology is used by the public.
On the topic of HD – that term is generally accepted to mean High Definition Television with 720 or more lines of resolution. Today’s commercial HD is digital, but several analog HD formats were demonstrated but never commercialized. Were you perhaps referring to the experimental Russian ‘Transformer’ system which was demonstrated in 1958? Their military used it on a trial basis so I suppose you can claim you were correct, but analog HD wasn’t used by American or allied military in the 1950s. And digital HD wasn’t invented until about 1990. I had to smile when I looked at your cites for your claim. First you cited a Britannia article on motion pictures (not relevant), a experiencefestival article on early television systems (did you actually read the cite? the term High Definition had a different meaning in the 40s. Not relevant), and your third cite talks about a 40s-style marketing campaign for HD radio (so very not relevant). Unless you have a cite about western military HD systems in the 50s, you should just admit you were wrong.
You were also wrong when you wrote that I never worked at the Pentagon. I worked there for several years. I’ve worked on military programs since 1979 (about the time you were born, right?). Phillip Shaw is my real name. Unlike you I don’t hide in the anonymity of a pseudonym so my claims are verifiable.
And, lastly, about your claim that EVs in the 90s had a range of 300 miles and a speed greater than 100 mph – how did you think that nonsense could pass unchallenged? The specs on the EV1, and other EVs of that period, are easy to look up. The 1997 EV1 had a max range of 75 miles, the 1999 Gen 2 EV1 had a max range of 100 miles, the 1998 – 2000 Ranger EV had a range of 60 miles, as did the RAV-4 EV. All of the EVs were designed for highway travel, not racing, and only a modified EV1 that was used for a record breaking attempt could exceed 100 mph. I helped a friend work on his Ranger EV and I know it wouldn’t exceed 100 mph unless you shoved it out the back of a cargo plane. So unless you can name some production EVs from that period with a 300 mile range and 100 mph top speed just admit that you are worng on all counts.
I eagerly await your next batch of waffles. I hope you realize this nonsense is just destroying what little credibility you have here. But it is OT so I’ll try not to impose on the patience of the group too much.
Regards, Phillip
To Tamino and John Mashey,
Be careful for what you wish for (pulling the ocean cycles out of the temperature trends) because it may not show what you want it to show.
Here’s a hint: the major ocean cycle drivers of temperature are the ENSO, the AMO and southern Atlantic Ocean SSTs (which is important to explain the unusual southern hemisphere temperature trends and has characteristics similar to the northern Atlantic AMO).
If you pull these out, you get a (still) noisy global warming signal but it does seem to rise fairly consistently over time in direct relation to GHGs. You still end up with 0.7C of warming since the 1880s, but that is certainly less than the 1.3C to 1.4C the models would have predicted.
[Response: which models would they be? Certainly not the ones shown in fig 9.5 of the IPCC AR4 report. – gavin]
Reply to gavin, it is hard to see what Figure 9.5 from AR4 is really showing.
But here is a reconstruction of Hadcrut3 monthly temps going back to 1871 (1353 data points) based on the Nino 3.4 region anomaly, the AMO index and southern Atlantic SSTs (65S to 35S by 15E and 55W) and CO2.
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/8456/finalhadcrut3modeljs7.png
After taking out the detrended ENSO, AMO and the southern Atlantic SST cycle out, we end up with a global warming signal like this (for GISS Temp this time as I have done this for all the major temp data series available) (Note the global warming model trendline in the chart is the original theoritical warming line of 3.25C of warming per doubling of GHGs (with CO2 as a proxy for all of them). This line is probably moved out 30 years now given that temps up to 2000 did not keep up with actual observations and the theory was extended to include the oceans absorbing more of the greenhouse effect impact than originally thought – this chart does not provide that break – but still meets the basic trendlines give or take 30 years – it is almost the same line as TAR provided.)
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/3416/finalgisswarmingkd6.png
I think this demonstrates you can take out the ocean cycles even if there are errors in the rest of the analysis. You’re still left with a +/- 0.2C (ocassionaly +/-.4C) error term which is partly white noise and partly other unexplained variation in global temperatures.
[Response: How pretty. But where are all the other terms? solar, volcanoes, aerosols, ozone? – gavin]
re: #365 John Lang
Wish for??
I’m not wishing for any particular result, I’m just wishing that more people would understand the difference between trends and noise. Tamino does admirable pedagogy in this turf.
I like OHC because
a) Most of the variable energy is there
b) Unlike surface temperature, energy obeys conservation laws
c) It’s the belt-buckle.
For a similar reason, despite possible confounding effects from precipitation differences, I like glacier records because there’s no argument over choice of periods for time-averaging.
Glaciers have built-in time-constants, and the longer ones end up with smoother curves.
See Swiss glaciers, especially the red line for Great Aletsch in the 3rd figure. Alternatively, this list sorts the Swiss glaciers in descending lengths. The shorter glaciers are more sensitive to short-term jiggles, the longer ones barely notice the noise. Of course, Swiss glaciers are only a tiny local sample, but it’s a meticulous dataset.
Of course, some would prefer that people get distracted by noise…
Philip I use my real name minus an a and a o, you do the letter adding. First and last name are included in my name here. The battery technology existed for the EV in the mid to late nineteen nineties, but industry did not want them to be used, so there is your first error. Second error: blue lasers as you admit were around for sometime, now the diodes you are referring to were developed in the early nineties which makes it over a decade (almost two decades, when did the blu rays start being marketed (aggressively?) since they were applicable and sometime before that green-blue lasers were used, so both were up and running way before blue ray discs were marketed,I never said theses lasers were around since the 1950’s, now did I, there is your second mistake.
Third mistake: HD has made many improvements over the years, but screens in the 1940’s and 1950’s were at the time revolutionary HD applications which modern screens are based upon with minor improvements to increase resolution. Also the band technology was already there in the form of HD radio applications. There is your third mistake.
As far as my credibility here and in general I guarantee you it is in tact.
It is not difficult to use a common name that will be found on google, but even if it turns out that you are being truthful about your identity that is the only thing that has been said by you with accuracy. It has become more difficult to find references to old technologies on the internet, but it is still possible and I told what books to find them as well as the documentary. This conversation is really over, as my time is precious.
Anne I will answer your question if you answer mine: why are these so called green house gases not leading to warming? (CO2, CH4, H2O)Oh one more quick one, how do YOU know? Answer me coherently and scientifically with strong evidence and I will get you those specs.
Phillip and Anne I suggest you guys check out Hank Robert’s link where you will clearly see the history of the EV told in good detail and see how in the 1980’s and 1990’s EV’s were traveling very far on one charge and over 100 m.p.h. Also you should see the documentary as well. I want to thank you Hank for the link, it offered further insights, actually in addition to the other sources I have looked at and have in my library.
I missed that reference, so it was helpful to read. The only apology I owe, even though debate by its nature is at times aggressive is actually to Hank Roberts, and this I can admit as a man. Phillip you may also see my comments on Alzforum to further verify who I am.
#358 Anne van der Bom: You’ve obviously thought this through and have probably already answered this question, so forgive me if I missed the answer. How much is your plan going to cost?
Hi Anne. We discussed the cost of wind a while back in detail. But here’s a first order estimate for you on the cost to build out to 100% of our electricity needs:
Solar: $3T
Wind: $6T
Geothermal: $2.5T
Nuclear: $1.40T
http://reason.com/news/show/127793.html
#343 SecularAnimist: Recommended reading re: problems with the Westinghouse AP1000:
Sigh. Please admit that there is nothing that will ever convince you that nuclear is safe. And then also admit that you think every reactor running in France is on the verge of melting down. And also admit the US has pumped about 50B tons of CO2 into the atmosphere since the late 70’s, and that if we would have mirrored France’s roll out, that figure would be about 20B. And also admit the biggest boosters of GREEN in the world are backstepping at this very moment because they see what it is/will do to their economy. Did you think you’d ever see Merkel begging to keep the reactors running?
You anti-nuclear people give the powers-that-be no way out. And you keep thinking that somehow if you screw up enough of the viable options that eventually they will come around to your options. And they would, except the numbers aren’t there. No matter how badly you want them to be there, the engineers look and look and look, because they are all dads and moms with kids that they want to live a long, happy life, and they hate sending money to people that hate us. And they come to the same conclusion: It’d be great if it scaled to 100%, but it doesn’t right now. And we need very nearly a 100% solution IF Hansen is right.
So, keep scaring the hell out of everyone about nuclear. In another 20 years, when the US and EU are still screwing around with p*ss poor deployment numbers on wind and alt energy, and the coal and petroleum industry are still roaring along, you can pat yourself on the back.
#351 jcbmack: I will repeat this reference:”Who killed the Electric Car,” showed the technology did exist in the nineties and electric cars were once the dominate automobiles on the road.
While that documentary was enjoyable, it failed to give the viewer a lot of details that were actually needed to make an informed decisions. Most that saw it believed that car companies killed electric cars because they were somehow a threat to all the money the car companies made at the pump. Wait. Never mind. It actually all ties back to the Masons some how, but I don’t remember.
Seriously, the reason electric cars aren’t here is because the batteries. Period. Full stop.
By the way, Tesla has brought an electric car to market for about $100M. They purchased a “shell” of a car from Lotus, and worked their magic on the inside. And there’s nothing that says that deal couldn’t be worked again. Some investors get together, get a shell from Honda, stick the batteries and electronics inside, and voila, a car that is even more reliable than a Honda because it’s simpler.
And the movie failed to really ack that all the hollywood stars and execs that were dying for the EV1 could have easily raised $200M (the price of a movie today), and started their own car company, complete with execs that would have been friendly to their whims.
But of course, we know why that didn’t happen. Because the hollywood types learned what they thought was possible was really almost impossible, and that the odds of them getting their money back would be about 2%. So they went back to making movies.
I guess they really don’t care that much afterall. But they like you to think they do.
Dear John Lang,
There is an aspect of the fit that you have obtained that should perhaps bother you.
Gavin has pointed out that you have not explicitly included the effects of volcanic eruptions, yet your fit during those events appears quite good.
An implication would be that one or more of your data sets includes the effects of eruptions. There is a very real risk that they also contain effects of other forcings, e.g. solar. They may also contain some aspect of the WM-GHG signal. I do not know, but I would check to see how the data sets you have used have been generated to see whether you feel they may contain some element of the WM-GHG signal.
As an initial practical measure, I would try removing any linear trend in the AMO data prior to using it.
Best Wishes
Alexander Harvey
Re my 374,
I have taken brief look at the AMO data and it appears that it has in all probability been detrended and I believe that it may be just the detrended North Atlantic SST.
[Response: Yes it is. – gavin]
Strangely, that it is already detrended could also turn out to be a problem.
The WM-GHG signal is not a linear trend, it has a dog-leg around the 1950s, so detrending and de-WM-GHG-ing are not the same thing.
Given that I would shy away from using the AMO data set without a lot more analysis.
Best Wishes
Alexander Harvey
Dear All,
I have to confess an anxiety regarding all matching of forcings directly to temperature records.
It begs the question, “Where have the oceans gone?”
Without the oceans “best fitting” is almost certain to come up with low values for the CS.
As you add oceans (model thermal mass) the best fit CS will rise.
So when do you stop?
Well along with the surface temperature records we have estimates of the OHC.
I believe that even the simplest models need to account for both simultaneously before their estimation of the CS needs to be taken all that seriously.
I also believe that, without a realistic model of thermal mass, the forcings can not be reconciled to the temperature record. In particular volcanic eruptions are way out. But also for solar cycles, and critically for the WM-GHGs.
I am not reserving my anxiety to amateur efforts, I feel that the simple models in published papers are commonly lack any attempt at validation against OHC data.
Best Wishes
Alexander Harvey
Alexander’s points regarding OHC reinforce (albeit obliquely) a question that I’ve had circulating in my mind for a while.
We know that during the past two Arctic melt seasons we have had really dramatic amounts of melt. At 333 J/g, that’s a lot of sensible heat going latent (if I may phrase it so.) I presume that a very general picture would be that, had the ice (magically) not been there to melt, we would have seen significantly higher temperatures in the Arctic than were actually observed.
So, returning to reality from the counterfactual case–are there portions of the temperature data that actually show some sort of signature from this melting? (I’d expect a sort of ‘mesa’ curve–steep rise, flattish top, perhaps a gradual decay–but my expectations have to count as fairly naive. After all, there would be multiple interactions among radiation, atmosphere, ice and ocean and none of the processes would be instantaneous, or even necessarily on the same time scale. So it’s probably not very simple at all.)
BTW, this post is 100% agenda-free–a product of pure curiosity. But–any thoughts?
Kevin (353), I just have the impression that a lot of cap and trade, at least initially, will not be very effective like my initial simple example. There will (maybe) be a lot of trading with little reduction. I got no more than this. (As an aside, as a skeptic I probably would not be bothered as it would not cause great grief to the entities, but this is totally irrelevant.) But, you’re correct: the experience of the SO2 process seems to counter my intuitive analysis; while some of the European cap and trade under Kyoto seems to support it, at least in part — though I dunno, maybe not enough to kill the idea.
I think you guys need to define HD and if text book projections satisfy available, as in blue LEDs. The current HD as in high definition television is wholly dependent on a digital encoding scheme that was not buildable until around the 90s, though it was theoretically known. Otherwise we wouldn’t have been orgasmic over the advent of 9.6kbps modems.
367 John Mashey says, “I like OHC because”
OHC is good. I also like sea level because it includes both OHC and ice melt. Plus, it’s one of the two variables (the other is ocean pH) which affect civilization the most.
372 Matt said, ” It’d be great if it scaled to 100%, but it doesn’t right now. And we need very nearly a 100% solution IF Hansen is right.”
This and 371 are too “eggs in one basket.” We could drop consumption 10% a year without much trouble, with perhaps a two year lag to get started. (Raise 2011 CAFE to 30MPG, 2013 to 50MPG, and 2015 to 70MPG, start insulating, ban incandescent lights, etc) That will give us a surplus of generating capacity almost immediately. You want to build nukes when there is a surplus of capacity already? That makes as much sense as building refineries. We need to be decommissioning refineries! It would also drop the price of oil in the toilet. Suddenly we can stop playing in that Middle East hornets’ nest. How much of a boon would that be to the economy? Gotta include that in a cost/benefit. Conservation alone, without any reduction in living standard, gets us down 50% within ten years, balances the budget, and drops the cost of energy in half, for a 75% cost savings! That offsets a lot of the costs – conservation saves money even without the reduced cost of energy factored in. We have 20% renewable and nuclear, so carbon requirements drop by 60% even before we add any generating power.
Switch our tax structure to carbon and away from income. Who says a tax takes money from the economy?? It doesn’t if other taxes are 1 for 1 swapped – cap and trade is simple theft and a way inefficient way to do business.
Start adding nuclear pre-heaters to existing fossil generators (and new solar thermal ones – nuke/solar thermal is a way efficient combo as it keeps the generators from sitting idle) and we’re down a total of 90+% in a decade. This isn’t a difficult problem to solve. The problem is that some folks think that energy consumption *must* rise. Sorry, but humans have a limited body mass and our ability to move mass and information continues to get more efficient. The more advanced the society beyond a 1950s tech base, the less energy that society needs. Our embedded excessive power generating capacity along with the embedded military capacity needed to protect fuel sources gives us incredible flexibility and funds to solve the problem. 90% in a decade. I challenge any contrarian to give a reason why it isn’t doable. Guys, lets talk real solutions to real problems.
> credible in tact
The errors in writing were
— “EV’s”
— “and”
So readers thought the statement was that in the 1990s there were EV’s that could go 100mph and 300 miles between charges.
Checking, it turns out that there was one electric vehicle that did exceed 100mph on one measured lap; there was another EV that did, once, go 300 miles. Each unique.
Memory isn’t reliable, and doesn’t work both ways. And there’s nothing worse than having a reputation for being a reliable source to make one become careless. At some point I’ll reach the age and condition where I forget to check my assertions more and more, and they diverge more and more from the facts. I think that’s called ‘Emeritus’ level. Maybe next week.
Rod B, you’ve got me looking at some of the criticisms of the European trading scheme, including the analysis by the GAO. (See: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-151)
While a lot of the (I’d say, “agenda-driven”) blogosphere labels the European model “a failure”, GAO doesn’t say that.
But it does seem that it’s critical 1) to have good baseline data on emissions (one of the GAO recommendations); 2) to allocate allowances appropriately (ETS gave them away–politically attractive, but not necessarily the right thing economically; and the supply of allowances exceeded demand in 2006, resulting in price collapse–this is obviously related to point 1); 3) to deal appropriately with offsets, as this area is highly problematic in terms of efficacy and throughput. (Note that the Title IV cap and trade scheme, which addressed SO2 and NOX so successfully, had no provisions for offsets.)
RichardC, you write that “cap and trade is simple theft and a way inefficient way to do business.” I don’t understand what you mean–who is stealing what from whom? (I’m wondering if you are thinking of the windfall which can result when allowances are simply awarded? But that needn’t be the case under cap and trade generally–this is one of the specifics that needs to be done right.) And the experience with the Title IV SO2 emissions trading scheme found it highly efficient in reducing emissions. Can you provide a little more substance to your thoughts, either by fleshing out your ideas or by giving some references?
#377 Rod B, #353 Kevin McKinney:
A cap and trade in the US on greenhouse gases might be more successful than in Europe. In US regulations the stakeholders have a more direct participatory role in the process. This tends to lead regulations that are more effective and efficient.
Many environmentalists initially opposed cap and trade because the regulated industries would be too involved. See Chevron v NRDC. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_v._NRDC
Now most groups embrace it.
Recaptcha: leaders resent
Gavin and Alexander Harvey asked about the volcanic impact in the reconstruction.
Certainly, the large volcanoes have an impact on temperatures and there is no volcanic forcing included in this reconstruction at all.
The effect, however, does seem to be picked up by the ocean indices I am using. Volcano happens, planet cools off, land cools off and Oceans cool off (I imagine.)
I looked very closely at all the major volcanic eruptions over this period – Krakatoa, Santa Maria, Novarupta, Agung, Mount Pinatubo etc. – (as I originally thought I would need to include a volcanic influence as well). It was not required.
For the most part, the impact is picked up. The reconstruction does not do as well with Pinatubo as it was a little low going into the eruption and then it is a little high when the impact was at its deepest, but it does go somewhere through the middle of the impact. The other major eruptions are matched pretty closely.
I could have put in some plugged figures here and there but decided not to just to preserve the simple calculations that the reconstruction is based on.
[Response: But then you are essentially using the temperature variations to predict temperature variations. This has very little predictability (actually none). – gavin]
jcbmack –
You are still wrong on all three points, and all of your bluster and waffling won’t change that.
The value of this ‘discussion’ – 0
Your being unable to simply admit your mistakes – PRICELESS
Cheers – Phillip
RichardC (380), Wow! I trust that low-fat pie in the sky you’re eating tastes good. You say, “Guys, lets talk real solutions to real problems.” following a litany of ethereal “solutions”. Boggles the mind. (To be fair there were a couple of ideas buried in there that weren’t too far off the chart and maybe deserving of some thought.) 70MPG CAFE in six years?? Hello!!
382 Kevin, cap and trade distributes allowances to be traded. Those who pollute retain the right to pollute. This can be altered to make it fair by selling the allowances up font, but then the system converts into a simple carbon tax. Adjusting the tax year-to-year to follow the market is easy and cheap. It also gives industry a stable benchmark. Why add another layer of complexity, when what we really want is a price per ton of CO2 which ratchets emissions down in a predictable fashion?
Then there is the issue of international borders. The atmosphere is common property, one which most folks consider equally owned by all people. Should the receipts, either from a carbon tax, or a modified tax-cap and trade system be distributed to everyone on the planet? It would provide a way to eliminate foreign aid.
Kevin (382), regardless of the ballyhoo, most of Europe missed Kyoto targets badly (or some just a little and some were not very bad at all); and a bunch of what they did accomplish was through the faulty (semi-faulty?) cap and trade plan put in place. Even so, being objective, I for one would not call their effort a failure. They got something out of it, and probably learned a bunch about the process. The GAO observations you cite seem quite good.
Maybe the situation is more like one of those pithy business sayings I heard long long ago. There is nothing wrong with any idea or project as long as one understands there are two and only two ways to do it: 1) smart; 2) stupid.
Rod,#379, you are essentially correct. The modern technology for what we now refer to as HD did start around the 1990’s, actually the mid to late 1980’s, but the kinks were worked out in the 1990’s and the marketability went up so mass production had begun to be facilitated, the upper middle class began to buy them, the price went down, the technology improved, the internal electronics became smaller and more shades of color became better resolved and resolution continued to improve (pixel count, clarity etc…)Actually there is a new 7,000 dollar HD tv with far more color shades than anything else on the market and it utilizes new advances on previously existing technology, eventually the price will drop and what is HD now (though I do not argue against a digitial basis) will be old news and obsolete. Those tv’s in France in the 1940’s-1950’s got close to the basic HD tv now in terms of resolution, but in color and aspect ratio clarity.
Phillip, The blue laser itself existed before the 1990’s, but the diode technology did become better in the early to mid 1990’s, (depending on your source or what interview transcript it could be as late as 2001 where drastic improvements were made)but even so if it is 1996 we want to consider the year of engineering development application of the diode and focusing the lower frequency blue laser, the potential for it and the basic principles and devlopment are far older, but here is the point: it took several years after it was working well before it became applied to blue ray discs and the like though it was already tested and effective.
Finally the EV’s. well, it turns out batteries did exist in the late 1990’s that could go approximately 300 miles on one charge and the very early 2000’s they were well documented, but not fitted into almost all vehicles as Hank pointed out from his reference, there was one maybe two if I look in the archives well enough which at a future date I will and will let you know my findings and cite the references. Just becasue the cars were not fitted as a whole does not mean that the technology did not exist, it was developed by Mashinksi, (I think I spelled that right, if you google the engineering of batteries by this couple you will find the information) but rejected by car companies. Batteries, Matt are very expensive and difficult when we get to certain power efficiency levels and yes if you are only building 4 vehicles or so a day they are VERY expensive, however, with proper marketing and mass production the prices would have dropped.
The point I was making is that all this technology is not so new and what we can do now was long ago predicted by chemists and engineers.
“but not in color and aspect ratio clarity.”
369 jcbmack
You misunderstood me. Did you notice the smiley?
You were referencing a documentary as support for your arguments. I merely tried to convey the message that I do not have much faith in documentaries. ‘Who killed the electric car’ is just as biased by personal beliefs as the documentary I mentioned.
Just to be absolutely clear about this: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it is already altering the climate and will probably cause us some nasty surprises in the future. We should stop the tinkering with that which we don’t understand as soon as possible.
And to be clear about another thing: I love EV’s, I’ll be the first person to buy one (if it’s within my budget).
So back to my question: where are the 300+ miles EV’s?
Anne first tell me why global warming is not true.
#371 matt
I am afraid the numbers in your article fail to convince me. The solar & wind numbers are based on real-world, actual projects. The Westinghouse estimate is probably from the marketing department. If Westinghouse signs a deal fixed price/fixed date to deliver a 1GW nuclear plant for $1.4 billion, I will believe their number.
Tell me, T Boone Pickens seems a smart business man to me. Why doesn’t he invest in nuclear if that is so vastly superior to wind?
386 Rod, the 2010 Prius is a very large car and is slated to get close to 70MPG. A smaller version would exceed 70MPG. I bet a lot of companies would license the technology.
Remember, CAFE isn’t required to be met – it’s a cap-and-tax system ($11/MPG). Right now CAFE is like giving out first-place ribbons to all the kids so as to ensure their economic egos aren’t bruised. If a 70MPG target would get automakers to double their efficiency (50MPG), then my stated goal would be achieved. I bet Toyota would make 70MPG and so their cars would be taxed $220 less than a corporation that gets 50MPG. CAFE should be set at or higher than the best corporation’s ability to deliver.
#370 jcbmack,
What Hank’s link shows is a list of failed attempts, toys for the rich and cars with limited use. The claims about performance and/or range are based on single trips in specially prepared one-off cars, out of reach for ordinary people and of no use in normal life. Even the EV-1 was a two-seater.
I am afraid we’ll have to wait another 10 years for the battery technology to mature. While waiting for that, I hope I can buy a plug-in hybrid early next decennium.
#371 matt
Oops forgot an inconvenient question: The $1.4 billion Westinghouse figure is that in- or exclusive of decomissioning costs?
#392 jcbmack
Are you playing with me?
Where is this statement lacking in clarity?
And I was not serious when I wrote:
re #323 + 324 turns out that 0.48C of John Lang became 0.58C, so much for being in touch with weather events around the globe.
Sources Oct. Nov. ChangeHadCRUT3v 0,4320 0,3860 -0,0460
GISTEMP 0,5800 0,5800 0,0000
N.C.D.C. 0,6365 0,6148 -0,0217
UAH-MSU 0,1660 0,2540 0,0880
RSS-MSU 0,1810 0,2160 0,0350
CRUTEM3v 0,7810 0,764 -0,0170
GISS announced a review policy commencing December, so they now turned in their temps last.
2008-12-16: Please see our preliminary discussion of this year’s data.
Starting this month, the data will be held, investigated, and potential problems reported to and resolved with the data provider before making them public. However, as we noted in the “Data Quality Control” section of our 1999 paper: We would welcome feedback from users on any specific data in this record.
A few station data from Canada were reported as potentially incorrect and subsequently removed by NOAA.
jcbmack (389), sounds good. I was merely saying what is being debated/discussed should be defined. Like TV: HD comes in two aspects. One is the TV production itself in terms of chromo processing, screen/tube technology, etc. The other is transmission and delivery.
Anne, part of T. Boone’s motivation is to have wind provide the electric power and free up the natural gas (his) to burn in cars and trucks. I suppose nuclear could do the same but most smart businessmen, unless they were already immersed, would look at the nuclear morass (which has nothing to do with any of this topic) and run like hell. Wind has its implementation problems, but not as bad as nuclear.