I recently came across an old copy of Arthur Koestler’s “The Case of the Midwife Toad”. Originally published in 1971, it’s an exploration of a rather tragic footnote in the history of evolutionary science. Back in the early years of the 20th Century (prior to the understanding of DNA, but after Mendelian genetics had become well known), there was still a remnant of the biological community who preferred the Lamarckian idea of the inheritance of acquired characteristics over the Darwinian idea of natural selection of random mutations. One of the vanguard for the Lamarckian idea was Paul Kammerer whose specialty was the breeding of amphibians that apparently few others could match. He claimed that he could get his toads and salamanders to acquire characteristics that were useful in the new environments in which he raised his specimens. This was touted loudly (in the New York Times for instance) as proof of Lamarckian inheritance and Kammerer was hailed as a ‘new Darwin’. It all ended very badly when one toad specimen was found to be faked (by who remains a mystery), and Kammerer killed himself shortly afterwards (though there may have been more involved than scientific disgrace).
The details of the experiments and controversy can be read online (with various slants) here and here, and a more modern non-replication of one of his experiments is described here. However, the reason I bring this up here is much more related to how the scientific community and Koestler dealt with this scientific maverick and the analogies that has for the climate science and its contrarians.
There are (at least) four points where the analogies with climate science are strong: First, there were clear philosophical motives for supporting Lamarckism (as there are for denying human effects on climate change) (see below). These are strongly articulated in Koestler’s book, and it is obvious that the author feels some sympathy with that argument. Second, there is idealization of the romantic notion of the scientist-as-hero, sacrificing their all (literally in Kammerer’s case) for the pursuit of truth in the teeth of establishment opposition (cf Svensmark). Third, there is the outrage at the apparent dirty tricks, rumours and persecution. Finally, there is the longing for a redemption – a time when the paradigm shift will occur and the hero will be proven right.
Enough time has passed and enough additional scientific evidence has been gathered however to show that Kammerer’s ideas are never going to be accepted into the mainstream. Therefore, we can use this episode to highlight how people’s misunderstanding of scientific process can lead them astray.
So let’s start with the non-scientific reasons why Kammerer’s ideas had resonance. Martin Gardner in Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science (1952) puts it well (p143):
Just as Lamarckianism combines easily with an idealism in which the entire creation is fulfilling God’s vast plan by constant upward striving, so also does it combine easily with political doctrines that emphasize the building of a better world.
The point is that without Lamarckianism, none of the striving and achievement of a parent impacts their progeny’s genetic material. That was a depressing thought for many people (what is the point of striving at all?), and hence there was a clear non-scientific yearning for Lamarckian inheritance to be correct. I use the past tense in referring to these almost 100 year-old arguments, but Koestler’s book and more recent attempts to rehabilitate these ideas tap into these same (misguided) romantic notions. (Odd aside, one of the most positive treatments of this “neo-Lamarckianism” is by Michael Duffy, a frequent climate contrarian Australian journalist). Note that I am distinguishing the classic ‘inheritance of acquired characteristics’ from the much more respectable study of epigenetics.
The scientist-as-hero meme is a very popular narrative device and is widespread in most discussions of progress in science. While it’s clearly true that some breakthroughs have happened through the work of a single person (special relativity is the classic case) and someone has to be the first to make a key observation (e.g. Watson and Crick), the vast majority of scientific progress occurs as the accumulation of small pieces of new information and their synthesis into a whole. While a focus on a single person makes for a good story, it is very rarely the whole or even a big part of the real story. Thus while Koestler can’t be uniquely faulted for thinking that Lamarckianism rose and fell with Kammerer, that perspective leads him to imbue certain events with much more significance than is really warranted.
For instance, one of the more subtle misconceptions in the book though is how Koestler thinks that scientific arguments get settled. He places enormous emphasis on a academic tour that Kammerer made to the UK which included a well-documented talk in Cambridge in which the subsequently-notorious specimen was also in attendance. In fact, Koestler devotes a large number of pages to first-hand recollections of the talk. Koestler also criticises heavily the arch-protagonist in this story (a Dr. Bateson) who did not attend Kammerer’s talk, even though he presumably could have, while continuing to criticise his conclusions. The talk is in fact held up to be the one missed opportunity for some academic mano-a-mano that Koestler presumably thinks would have settled things.
Except that this is not how controversial ideas get either accepted or rejected. Sure, publishing papers, giving talks and attending conferences are all useful in bringing ideas to a wider audience, but they are very rarely the occasion of some dramatic denouement and mass conversion of the skeptical. Instead, ideas get accepted because of the increasing weight of evidence that supports them – and that usually comes in dribs and drabs. A replication here, a theoretical insight there, a validated prediction etc. Only in hindsight does there appear to be a clean sequence of breakthroughs that can be seen to have led inexorably to the new conclusions. At the time, the landscape is far more ambiguous. Thus in focusing on one specific talk, and on its reception by one particularly outspoken opponent, Koestler misses the wider issue – which was that Kammerer’s ideas just didn’t have any independent support. The wider community thus saw his work (as far as I can tell) as a curiosity: possibly his findings were correct, but his interpretation was likely not, and maybe his findings weren’t all that reproducible in any case?
This remains the issue, if Lamarckian evolution were possible, it should have been viewable in hundreds of other systems that were much easier to replicate than Kammerer’s toads (nematodes perhaps?). Absent that replication, no amount of exciting talks will have persuaded scientists. In that, scientists are probably a little different from the public, or at least the public who went to Kammerer’s more public lectures where he was very warmly received.
In these circumstances, it is not surprising that Kammerer’s more vocal opponents would occasionally give vent to their true feelings. Koestler is particular critical of Bateson who, in retrospect, does appear to have gone a little far in his public critiques of Kammerer. However, Koestler perhaps doesn’t realise how common quite scathing criticism is in the halls of academe. This rarely gets written down explicitly, but it is nonetheless there, and forms a big part of how well some people’s ideas are received. If someone is perceived as an exaggerator, or an over-interpreter of their results, even their most careful work will not get a lot of support.
Koestler ends his book with the familiar refrain that since modern science is incomplete, alternative theories must continue to be pursued. He states that since “contemporary genetics has no answers to offer to the problem of the genesis of behaviour”, the replication the key experiments (which he clearly expected to vindicate Kammerer), would very likely make biologists ‘sit up’ and have a long-lasting impact on the field. This notion fails to take into account the vast amount of knowledge that already exists and that makes certain kinds of ‘alternative’ theories very unlikely to be true. The link between this optimistic expectation and discussions of climate change is persuasively demonstrated in this pastiche.
There is one additional characteristic of this story that has some modern resonance, and that’s the idea that once someone starts accepting one class of illogical arguments, that leads them to accept others that aren’t really connected, but share some of the same characteristics. Some people have called this ‘crank magnetism‘. In Kammerer’s case, he was a great believer in the meaningfulness of coincidences and wrote a book trying to elucidate the ‘laws’ that might govern them. Koestler himself became a big proponent of parapsychology. And today there are examples of climate contrarians who are creationists or anti-vaccine campaigners. Though possibly this is just coincidence (or is it….?).
Of course, the true worth of any scientific idea is whether it leads to more successful predictions than other theories. So I’ll finish with a 1923 prediction that Kammerer made while he was on a speaking tour of the US: “Take a very pertinent case. The next generation of Americans will be born without any desire for liquor if the prohibition law is continued and strictly enforced” (NYT, Nov 28).
“And it [Wegener’s theory] wasn’t ridiculed. That’s a modern myth.” – BPL
Exactly. Rod B. clings to the “lone genius scorned and rejected by the scientific establishment but finally vindicated” picture of scientific progress, which is never better than a gross over-simplification. This is what enables him to believe that AGW theory could be overturned at any time.
Jacob, either you’re ignorant or dishonest. Nothing could be further from the truth than this claim.
As has been pointed out above, you make other claims about the “green movement” which are demonstrably false.
Time for you to do some reading.
Meanwhile, there’s no reason for me to wade through your overly wordy posts if you’re going to spew dishonest stuff like this. Kind of ruins your credibility, you see …
#460 To: It seems that the denialist tactics run a predictable course.
1) It’s not happening.
2) It’s happening, but it’s not our fault.
3) It’s happening and maybe we’re doing it, but it’s not that bad.
4) It’s happening and maybe we’re doing it and maybe it will be bad, but doing something about it will be too hard/impossible.
I’m afraid I have zero sympathy for any of these lines of argument. 1) is not tenable. 2) is ignorant and irresponsible; 3) doesn’t hold up to scrutiny, and 4) is damned pathetic.
Admirably passionate, perhaps, but it’s the work of a moment to say:
It seems that the insistist tactics run a predicable course.
1) The debate is over.
2) It’s over, but there are a few insignificant uncertainties.
3) OK, some uncertainties may be significant, but those who believe so are ignorant.
4) Well, perhaps they’re not all ignorant, but certainly they are venal, and there’s no downside to acting on the consensus anyway.
I don’t have any sympathy for either cartoonish line of argument, and I would suggest that you stick to your strength, which is to lay out the physics as you understand it, and to avoid broad-brush critiques of a varied skeptic group that is no more “tacticical” than the insistosphere.
matt wrote: “… what matters is if a specific action actually reduces CO2 in an amount that is sufficient to meet the goals …”
Nuclear power fails that test, since it cannot reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation in an amount that is sufficient to meet the goal, given the reality that we have only a short time within which to reach that goal. As the study I referenced above found:
In contrast:
Nuclear power simply cannot make a significant contribution to reducing CO2 emissions within the time period that we know is needed. Thus it fails your test that “what matters is if a specific action actually reduces CO2 in an amount that is sufficient to meet the goals.”
We should not divert resources into costly, risky, dangerous actions, like building nuclear power plants, that cannot reduce CO2 enough, and fast enough, to meet the goals. We should invest those resources in actions that “matter” because they can get the job done: rapid deployment of available efficiency technologies; rapid buildup of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar thermal, and geothermal electricity generation; development of a next-generation “smart grid”; and electrification of ground transport.
Rod B in #477 and matt in #478 raised the electric grid as an impediment to the large-scale baseload use of “intermittent” energy sources, principally wind and solar energy.
Of course we need to upgrade the electric grid. The existing grid is, by all accounts, not in good shape even for present purposes, as major blackouts in recent years have illustrated.
Of course we need a next-generation “smart grid” — what Al Gore has called “the Electranet”, suggesting a government role like that of DARPAnet in developing what we now call the Internet might be appropriate for developing a 21st century electric grid. Much as the Internet does for data, the smart grid must be capable of intelligently & robustly integrating diverse, centralized and distributed, baseline and intermittent, large and small electricity producers, consumers and storage.
And pretty much everybody who advocates a transition to an energy system based on harvesting the vast, abundant, ubiquitous and free solar and wind energy resources of the USA is promoting the development of the smart grid — so it’s not like you are bringing up a show-stopping problem that no one has thought about and a lot of smart people aren’t already working on.
What seems ironic to me is when advocates of a massive rapid buildup of nuclear power airily dismiss all of the formidable problems and challenges presented by that project, and then point to the electric grid as an insurmountable obstacle to large scale use of wind and solar. I would suggest that upgrading the electric grid into a 21st Century Super-Smart Grid is a much more straightforward and far less expensive proposition than a massive buildup of nuclear power (which, of course, would also require upgrades to the grid to accommodate new power plants).
And with that grid, the supposed insurmountable problem of “intermittency” of wind and solar becomes pretty surmountable, as the study I cited above says:
Your ignorance amazes me… I am neither being dishonest and again citations are not needed it is common knowledge this is a blog not a thesis. You are just not paying attention Nick and Dhogaza.
Joesph you have a fair response and mine is simple: you did not read what I wrote you may have just skimmed because I never accused the entire green movement. At any rate you guys have a lot to learn.
Jim Eaton once again the group think takes over. I never stated that there were no scientists involved with the green movement or that there were no credible green groups or aspects of the movement.I do not rely on a feeling or my “opinions,” I just look at the facts, and my statements are statements of fact. I do know that scientists could be doing a lot more than they are and not just doing interviews about hypothetical tipping points, but I am sure they are doing their part behind the scenes.
“avoid broad-brush critiques of a varied skeptic group that is no more “tacticical” than the insistosphere.” – wmammy
Garbage. There is no “insistosphere” – just the vast majority of relevant scientific experts. Anyone who does acknowledge that this is the case (note that this is does not imply acknowledging this vast majority is right) is either dishonest, or culpably ignorant. Meanwhile on the “skeptic” side, the ratio of peer-reviewed publications to op-eds, denialist blogs, letters to newspapers, non-peer-reviewed “reports”, etc., is minute. The symmetry you claim to point to simply does not exist.
wmammy, here Nick is 100% correct. The verdict is in and the science has been updated recently as well. On a side note,my own calculations for my forthcoming paper have been done; the math is sound and the observations are validated. Not only is it in the peer review and the IPCC report, but many scientists not in peer review have woken up as well. The non peer review that attempts to refute global warming due to man’s activities can always be disproven and the errors are so plentiful it is beyond being either funny or sad… it is pathetic.
If it were not for NASA, the NOAA AOS Princeton, Harvard and countless other research efforts the wool might still be pulled over our eyes. The physics based models have come a long way, and actually warming is happening faster than was predicted. Just go to NASA.gov, the NOAA, Princeton AOS, Nature, Science, American Scientist, etc… they are not in cahoots with each other. Global warming is a clear and present threat and the future will be gravely and greatly affected if more action are not taken.
Just had to jump back in the pool, didn’t you. Two examples here display the type of thinking and response that I think does you guys (some but not all, to be sure) no favor or help. That is — dare I use the word — denial of any semblence, indication, or any tiny little piece that somehow is off the tenet, no matter how insignificant. The vociferous denial that the environmental movement has never produced anybody whose efforts were not actually destructive or abominably stupid, as jcbmack says (though he used nicer language) as one example. I can cite numerous of examples (which to echo jcbmack is a waste of time because it is commonly known), but the response (actually on another blog) is generally fingers in the ear and/or head in the rear saying “I CAN’T HEAR YOU!”, or it never happened, or that source is lying, or…..whatever. Very unbecoming.
Or more to my own (and others) minor point on this thread — how science often does not fully accept new ideas in some kind of love fest with everyone sitting around singing Kumbaya. Your reply(s) in essence said you would so accept an independent mind so long as he/she didn’t act like a dork. Kinda misses the idea. I cited Wegener as one lowly example that happened to come to mind. Despite that if you google wegener +science +tectonics +ridicule and get the tons of references describing the bad treatment Wegener received, peppered thoroughly with “ridicule” and such (but also describing his credible (if not perfect) serious scientific works), you say “did not happen”, or “he was a dork and therefore does not count.” Pure denial. Some just throw out non sequitur straw men like, “yes, but you’re a dirty rotten skeptic. what about that?”
Incredibly unbecoming, not to mention unscientific..
SecularAnimist (505, et al), anyone who says that land and permits for a significantly sized piece or strip of land can be had in 0.5 years (or 1 or 2) has never secured right of way. I also think you (actually your reference) are citing the worst nuclear case against the best wind/solar case. Bear in mind the standard rule of implementing new major projects: take the final official estimate; then double the cost, double the time, and halve the function, and you’ll be pretty close.
One other worth mentioning: all the smarts in the world added to the grid will not change the I2R problem
But despite some imperfections (allowed in these kinds of studies) your reference seems credible and worthy of consideration. I just don’t think it is close to the final word. Not near enough to throw nuclear down the crapper.
jcbmack,
Nick may not agree with you, though that is for him to say, that 100% is a good figure to bandy about, at least not so long as the IPCC is dealing in variations of LOSUs and using terms such as “very likely” and “more likely than not”. I agree with him that the vast majority of relevant scientific experts are in general agreement — I can read. It is inaccurate, though, I believe, to claim there is no “insistosphere” (a silly play on the equally silly “denialosphere”). The former is a much larger group, and it is insisting, ingenuously for the most part, that as large a group that can be politically managed should act on the scientific consensus.
The point I was ineffectively trying to make with the “1) The debate is over. 2) it’s over, but…” nonsense, is that Ray’s “1) It’s not happening. 2) It’s happening, but it’s not our fault…” is equally fruitless, if not parallel. Presumably RC would like to persuade other than the choir that AGW theory is not only sound but vital (that it be understood and accepted) to our future. I don’t see how noxious name-calling (deniers, denialists and the like) or tautologies (there is a crisis because there is a crisis) advances the ball. Rather, it smacks of academic bullying, satisfies its own constituency, and convinces few who arrive at the RC table unconvinced. It gives off the unintended impression that the skeptics must have a point if they need to be sneered at with such ferocity.
I’ve served on the board of a large (multimillion $ budget) regional conservation NGO, I’ve proved IT services to one of the most prominent international “green” NGOs, and to a less well-known national (US) one as well. I’ve been involved in “green”, by which I at least mean environmental and conservation, issues and organizations for most of my adult life (I’m 54).
My personal experience and my knowledge of the actions, motivations, and history of “green” NGOs informs me that your opinion is not based on fact.
Yes, Jacob, this is a blog and you’re free to make shit up.
And I’m free to call you on it, and to point out that it’s not a particularly honest thing to do.
Re #481: “Interestinly, a single wind farm generates 0 watts of power about 92% of the hours in the year.”
I think you must have a typo in there somewhere :-) In any case, it’s not how often it generates 0 watts that matters, but how often the output is less than demand. Simplisticly, if your plant produces 10 MW in average wind, and you need 10 MW to supply your customers, you have problems when the wind’s less than average. You need to also realize that wind (and solar) is affected by weather systems on near-continental scales. A high-pressure system across the midwest, for instance, means less than average winds over the whole area.
“They show that connecting 19 wind farms, spread across 5 states, permits you to get 20% of your rated power with 80% reliability (about that of nuclear, slighty worse than coal).”
You need to update your nuclear reliability figures. See here, for instance: http://www.allbusiness.com/energy-utilities/utilities-industry-electric-power-power/6635043-1.html (The first thing I found in a quick search.) In addition, I think that figure is including planned outages, as for maintenance, which of course are not a grid reliability problem.
“So, using our previously discussed cost of wiring the entire US with wind costing $6T (assuming 100% of nameplate), in actuality that cost would go to $30T if you wanted that power available 80% of the time. And that cost doesn’t include connecting the wind farms together across these 5 states.”
Which is the fundamental problem with wind as an exclusive energy source: the costs increase almost asymptotically: having wind supply 1% of the total grid costs the price of building that many turbines, but increasing the percentage to 10% costs much more than 10 times the cost of 1%, while 100% wind would cost far more than 10 times 10%.
Re #504: “The time between planning and operation of a nuclear power plant includes the time to obtain a site and construction permit…”
But these times are not natural law, nor was the permitting process engraved on tablets of stone carried down from Mount Sinai. They could be changed, about as quickly as one could say “national emergency”, or make a decision to hand out billions of taxpayer dollars to banks & automakers.
“We should not divert resources into costly, risky, dangerous actions, like building nuclear power plants, that cannot reduce CO2 enough, and fast enough, to meet the goals. We should invest those resources in actions that “matter” because they can get the job done: rapid deployment of available efficiency technologies; rapid buildup of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar thermal, and geothermal electricity generation; development of a next-generation “smart grid”; and electrification of ground transport.”
I think you really need to think about some of that. Do the math on solar photovoltaic, for instance. Current price is upwards of $3/watt (http://www.solarbuzz.com/moduleprices.htm): how much does a 1 GWatt solar plant cost? $6 billion (’cause even the best solar cells don’t generate at night), plus cost of supporting structures, plus cost of storage/backup power for nights & cloudy days… That counts as “costly” in my book.
Then there’s geothermal: how do we build much more, when sites that can be used with current technology are strictly limited? There’s one up the road from me that’s been putting out ~100 MWatts for years, but it’s built out.
Some of those ideas are good – electric railroads are mature technology that just needs to be built – but none of them, alone or all together, constitute a magic bullet.
Rod, wmanny points well taken. Dhogaza I have not made anything up whatsoever. Your wording reveals a twisting of my words. I never stated or implied that the green movement as a whole was not a good and constructive movement or a process that is worth fighting for and with. What I did say is that in some cases the green movement is sometimes counter productive and I implied that it is at other times neither a net positive or net negative process in conclusion of some of its actions. I am not questioning you dhogaza as to whether or not you have real expertise, knowledge or education in anything relating to global climate change, warming, environmental science or the green movement etc… You may have none, some, a lot, you may even be a great credit to the green movement and have seen numerous benefits to the environment as a result of green initiatives. This is not in dispute. I also do not deny my own arrogance at times (perhaps always?) nor do I think that any of us has all the answers.
I am not interested with Nick agreeing or disagreeing, when I day 100% I realize the uncertainties in probability as to the exact effects warming will have in say 25, 50, 75, and 100 years and the range in projected climate sensitivity, however, the actual warming trend is proven at this point irrespective of some variations that may arise in the future and even here the correlation (does not equal causation)for future high temperatures and detriments to the ecosystems is well established if not 100%.
Oh for those interested I have started a blog: climateoverdrive.org, in response to the controversies, uncertainties, and misunderstandings in the climate blog and science community. It is up and running, but under construction… feel free to post suggestions for first topics, references textbooks or just drop an opinion based upon data.
May I second John Mashey’s pointer and suggestion:
——–excerpt———–
17 December 2008 at 10:24 PM
Reality check on wind & solar.
I’m a big fan of both of these … but their use really depends on where you are, and different countries and parts thereof have vast variabilities. Hence, there may be X good space for something in a country, and you may gear up for that, but some places may still need nuclear.
James Hansen was here at our local Town Center giving a talk last night, and this got discussed both over dinner and during questions after the talk.
See post at BraveNewClimate
——end excerpt——
Barry Brooks has several topics pertinent to discussing the tradeoffs and prospects for the various power source ideas.
Seriously — if you want to do more than post talking points, there’s a good discussion next door. Let’s go.
Dangers and risks of going green: mold? “Dangers Of Going Green
Industrial Hygienists Suggest Watching Out For Mold When Going Green
October 1, 2008 — Industrial hygienists found that mold, rot, and corrosion are dangers that must be accounted for when builders construct energy-efficient homes. Recycled materials used in this type of construction are likely to absorb more water than new materials. Air quality can also become an issue because of a heightened focus on insulation which, in addition to reducing heating and cooling costs, can limit the movement of water vapor and potential pollutants.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2008/1001-
dangers_of_going_green.htm
Fortunately for Amanda she knew to pay for the extra construction.
http://www.alternativechannel.tv/blog/en/comments/dangers_and_opportunities_the_future_of_gr
The Six Sins of Greenwashing”
Be skeptical of “green product” labels issued by manufacturers and distributors. Some may be legitimate; many are not. Investigate them. The principal variables are the raw materials of which a product is made and the energy expended to produce it (and to get it to you). Remember, producers of “green products” fail to remind us that we should be consuming less.
These wise words were recently brought to you by a certain esteemed and worthy young blogger whose page you happen to know. In the evolving jargon of the environmental sphere, firms which make such false, dubious or otherwise misleading claims are now guilty of “greenwashing”.
“TerraChoice Environmental Marketing in November 2007 published what they found through market research to be “The Six Sins of Greenwashing”. Be aware.”
Oh, you’ve gone far beyond that. The nice thing is that you can’t delete or edit your old posts, here.
Readers get to decide for themselves.
wmanny (512): Gee. Wish I’d said that… much improved over my words.
“Things are seldom what they seem –
Skim milk masquerades as cream.”
–William S. Gilbert
And I, for one, am thankful to Dhogaza for his work in the Pacific NW. I used to think that loggers had a point when they were belly aching, then I looked at Google Earth and realized that pretty much everything that’s not National Park or wilderness area is, has been or will be logged. It occurred to me that the spotted owl and other old growth critters need a chance. Keep up the good work Dhog. Good luck with the shoveling, we got 6 inches, 1cm of ice and another couple of inches of snow up in the Couve :-)
# 519 that is just fine with me… I stand behind my words and look forward to seeing the responses. The green movement has done plenty of good and at times plenty of bad to put it in plain english. Nothing is one sided or only beneficial. As far as going far beyond that, you are reading too much into my statement where the content does not support your claims.
#522 BBC’s planet earth on DVD is a great series, most public libraries carry the five disc set, joy to watch… speaking of spotted owls, and such. Hank you have got that right.
jcbmack Says: ” I am neither being dishonest and again citations are not needed it is common knowledge this is a blog not a thesis…my statements are statements of fact”
Well, Jcb, when you pontificate on subjects where many of us know you clearly are wrong (and support our positions with citations), your response is the equivalent of “I don’t need no stinking citations!” Proof by assertion. Needless to say, that does little to convince anyone that you know what you are talking about.
Unfortunately, it also leads us to think that anything else you post on other subjects also is likely to be bull. Your “opinions” are simply that. And when you do post an occasional citation, likely as not, the reference is completely irrelevant or actually does not support your assertions. Pity.
“I am neither being dishonest and again citations are not needed it is common knowledge” – jcbmack
“I do not rely on a feeling or my “opinions,” I just look at the facts, and my statements are statements of fact.” – jcbmack
Now, what sort of person do these jems remind you of? Begins with a “d”.
Wmanny, Isn’t it ironic that those with ALL the scientific evidence on their side have to insist that the science be taken seriouslty?
I mean you’ve made an utterly unsubstantiated claim that there are serious “uncertainties” in the consensus climate models. Just what might these be? It’s put up or shut up time, dude. You made the claim. Now back it up.
“The vociferous denial that the environmental movement has never produced anybody whose efforts were not actually destructive or abominably stupid” – Rod B.
Well, I do deny that. I think you got lost in your negatives there, because you are by implication claiming (if we assume that you are disagreeing with the “vociferous” deniers) that the efforts of everyone in the environmental movement are destructive or abominably stupid. Is that what you meant?
“science often does not fully accept new ideas in some kind of love fest with everyone sitting around singing Kumbaya.” – Rod B.
No-one said it did. Yes, scientists do frequently ridicule each others’ theories. So what? John Mashey referenced a book by a highly respected historian of science which according to him shows your “lone persecuted genius” version up for the gross over-simplification it is. For that matter, the first item I got when putting your suggested search term into google (http://www.enotes.com/earth-science/wegener-alfred), mentions ridicule but also says:
“Some scientists supported him, but there was not enough geological evidence to prove beyond a doubt that he was essentially right. Wegener’s first critic was his father-inlaw, Köppen, who apparently wanted Wegener to stay in meteorology and not wander into unknown areas like geophysics. At the first lecture in Frankfurt in 1912, some geologists were apparently indignant at the very notion of continental drift. The initial reaction was mixed at best, and hostile at worst. In 1922, when The Origin of Continents and Oceans first appeared in English, it was blasted in a critical review and at a scientific meeting. Subsequently, continental drift provoked a huge international debate, with scientists ranging themselves on both sides.
Detractors had plenty of ammunition. It was soon shown that Pohlflucht and tidal forces were about one millionth as powerful as they needed to be to move continents. The paleontological evidence was thought to be inconclusive. In 1928, at a meeting of fourteen eminent geologists, seven opposed it, five supported it without reservation, and two supported it with reservations.”
Doesn’t quite fit your stereotype, does it?
Captcha adds: “protest daily”
> Nothing is one sided or only beneficial.
Mobius strip.
But seriously, rather than get stuck in handwaving and generalization to the point of meaninglessness, consider a good discussion here:
http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2008/12/science-and-consensus.html
Don’t want to drag this further and further off-topic but … it’s probably too late for the northern spotted owl in the Pacific Northwest. It may’ve been too late by the time researchers at UWashington (*forestry* types, I might add, the founders of “New Forestry”) pinned down the fact that NSO require very large tracts of old-growth to thrive in our mixed-conifer temperate PNW rainforests.
Incursions by barred owls – a close relative – from the eastern forests into the PNW have been as rapid and overwhelming as the German Blitzkreig through the Ardennes was to the French Army. The speed of the invasion after the first recorded breeding records (about 10 years) has been amazing and disconcerting.
To drag it on-topic, I wonder – and I’m not alone – whether or not global warming contributed to this, because they must’ve spread through Canada’s boreal forest. They like patchy habitat, so logging up north may be the sole culprit, but climate change might very well be playing a role, too.
There are those who claim that conservationists like myself “believe in” AGW because it suits our “political goals”, etc. The reality is that ongoing and future climate change most likely means that most of the work done by “traditional” conservationists – habitat protection around known ranges for species in peril, etc – is going to go down the toilet in the next few decades. I, for one, really wish I could find a reason to believe that climate scientists are full of it and global cooling is happening and will return us to the climate for which decades of conservation efforts were tuned …
#505 SecularAnimist: And with that grid, the supposed insurmountable problem of “intermittency” of wind and solar becomes pretty surmountable, as the study I cited above says
Surmountable at a price. As is everything.
Since we’re both citing the same study, can we agree that the conclusion of the study is that you can take nameplate rating of a farm of interconnected generators, multiply that by 0.20, and that is the amount of power that can be used as baseload. It’s clearly shown on the graph in Fig 3.
Thus, that is how you arrive at $20-$30T cost to build out the entire US electrical demand as wind. Nuclear is being BUILT TODAY in a highly regulated environment in the US at $5-$7T for same coverage.
“Thus, that is how you arrive at $20-$30T cost to build out the entire US electrical demand as wind.” – matt
Since no-one has ever suggested doing that, what relevance does this have even if it is right?
I support environmental protection!
Jim and Nick how can you be so blind? I know AGW is real and has had and will have some serious ramifications. I even left citations and gave examples of what I was referring to. I support conservation and the green movement. I also donate money and time every year to help save the environment. My blog climateoverdrive.org also highlights the effects of GLOBAL WARMING, feedbacks, it references NASA, RC and explains why there is no reason to doubt that man’s activities have increased WARMING.
One of the difficult things about the internet blogs is that you cannot see a person speak, hear the tone, and due to lack of space the words do not always represent well what a person is saying or trying to say. The global ice caps are melting, since the beginning of industrialization and the increased greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, more infrared radiation has been trapped and so more heat content has led to increased global mean temperatures. The ph of the oceans has changed as a result of the CO2 reacting in water which forms carbonic acid. Can I be any more clear??? I do know and support the switch to reliance upon more renewable, alternative energy sources with little to no harmful emissions. I own inconvenient truth and support his efforts to protect the environemnt. I also teach courses related to the environment, global warming, chemistry and ecology. The best programs on the most accurate and reliable tv programming PBS (and PBS.org) overwhelmingly document the effects of pollution in general and global warming along with future projected risks based upon calculations input to models, satellite observations and actual footage of geographic locations everywhere.
Watch the name calling, wild allegations and half thought out responses. I support conservation, however, there are numerous mistakes people in the green movement made, make and there are those who are “green,” and not well informed. I did not say: “Nick, dhogaza, or Jim,you are misinformed or know nothing about the environemnt.” What the hell are you getting upset about? Relax, nothing I said is false, misleading, unsupported or a personal attack on you.
Besides global warming we have real issues with species extinction, niche contamination, carrying capacity issues, poaching is a factor, changing migration patterns, (honey bees)and changes in genes are others. I took climate science courses, meteorology, evolutionary biology, oceanography, etc… none of the professors denied global warming, none of the textbooks did either. I am not against goign green, but I am against so called “green companies,” which are anything but, or consumers who make a house green the wrong way and end up getting sick or not being so green, due to lack of information. I support further marketing, sales, engineering, and mass production of electric vehicles, but in the interim, more hybrids, perhaps hydrogen fule cells, though it is far more expensive and less practical than EV’s and even hybrids; here is one point: by now, 2008 (almost 2009) we could have many electric vehicles with amazing range, comfort, speed, acceleration and durability, but the government, the car companies, the energy industry shut all of that down.
I am a democrat (though I sometimes refer to myself as an independent) and though the party is not perfect I voted for Obama becuase he supports protecting the environment, fighting global warming, and he supports better math and science education.
What I do not support is name calling, group think band wagon cliams and half assertions.
In the future get your facts straight and show the respect I know I show you.
Nick (528), what I meant (and think I said, but maybe too convoluted) was that some deny that the green/environmental movement has ever produced destructive and stupid supporters, or similarly some maintain that the movement has never produced anybody like that. I did not say that there aren’t any good smart folk in the movement (or similarly I would say that there are good smart people in it.). More often than not this denial is in fact very vociferous.
Your description of my Wegener example in #528 is pretty much what I was saying (though I can’t figure out where “stereotype” comes from), and not at all like you’re description (471) of the relatively benign process of working with independents or contrarians. Then you did write him off as a “crank” (480) which is more like what I was contending. I think new ideas in science often follow the (paraphrased) three stages: 1) ridicule, 2) violent opposition with shunning and accusations of heresy, 3) claims that they knew it all along — usually coming years to decades later after the stupid idea was finally verified.
Interestingly one of AGW’s idols, Arrhenius, also went through the same buzz saw. (Though this example is orthogonal as the ridicule was not over his climate and warming/cooling work.)
I don’t have any disagreement with the process you describe in 471 — what I would call benign but strong and appropriate challenge. I just don’t think it is the rule. It is certainly not the process in the AGW debate, though admittedly this is more charged because of what might be at stake.
Oh yeah just because I speak to Wmanny does not mean I agree with what he is saying, this is not the junior high playground. I do, however, try and explain to him how and why we know what we do without being condescending. As a race of people it is not the blogs or the charts that are going to save us ormake things better, it is workign together and makiing major changes as the minor ones summate.
Compare also the cost expected and paid to build prior generation to the cost experienced in running and decommissioning them. You need a fudge factor to rule out the optimism and externalized costs at the beginning of any period for any financial projection,
as long as the annual bonuses are based on short term numbers.
matt wrote: “Nuclear is being BUILT TODAY in a highly regulated environment in the US …”
Please specify exactly what “nuclear” is “being BUILT TODAY” in the US ?
For extra credit, compare and contrast the wind generating capacity added to the US grid each year for the last ten years and currently under construction, with the nuclear generating capacity added in the last ten years and currently under construction, as well as the comparative costs of each to ratepayers and taxpayers.
James wrote: “Which is the fundamental problem with wind as an exclusive energy source …”
And matt wrote: “… that is how you arrive at $20-$30T cost to build out the entire US electrical demand as wind …”
I am not aware of anyone who advocates that we rely on wind “as an exclusive energy source” or “build out the entire US electrical demand as wind” — although it is true that the commercially exploitable offshore wind energy resources of the northeast alone, or the wind energy resources of several midwestern states alone, are more than sufficient to provide all the electricity consumed in the USA.
What I argue for, and what I believe most clean energy advocates argue for, is (1) maximum application of existing and emerging energy efficiency technologies to the demand side and (2) an integrated system of wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar thermal, geothermal, biomass and hydropower energy generation, with both centralized and distributed generating facilities connected via a smart grid.
With such an energy system we can harvest much more clean, abundant, ubiquitous, free energy than the entire country needs to power a modern, comfortable, technologically advanced society. And we can harvest that energy on time scales that for human purposes amount to “forever”, with none of the toxic pollution and other dangers of fossil fuels or nuclear power.
From Hansen himself: http://www.pnas.org/content/103/39/14288.abstract
or the full article:http://www.pnas.org/content/103/39/14288.full
(just because I diagree with some of his estimates does not mean I do not see how his basic claims are backed up by enumerous evidence)
Ray,
(527) No need for the thin skin here, truly. Of course serious science needs to be insisted upon, just as skepticism about that science must always be present. Can you imagine the alternative? “Yep, good enough for me, let’s go for it, full steam ahead.” It would be a cursory read of the history of science, indeed, to think unchallenged science a good idea.
Further, I have made no unsubstantiated claims. My 1-2-3 list was merely a send-up of your own, and the point of the stupid thing was to ask if it was necessary to reduce scientific skeptics to a [beyond] derisive nickname and a cartoon of illogical thought, as though there were no disagreement in their supposed camp.
I think “put up or shut up, dude” is beneath you — I’m the lay reader here, not the expert — and I would hope that you stick to your strengths, offering your good observations about and answers to questions about the physics, and that you resist the temptation to lampoon the opposition. Once again, when you deride the skeptics and pretend there is nothing to be unsure about in your own point of view, you invite unwanted questions. But if you think this site is not guilty of preaching to the choir, so be it. I will respectfully disagree.
Walter
#506 jcbmack
“Joesph you have a fair response and mine is simple: you did not read what I wrote you may have just skimmed because I never accused the entire green movement. At any rate you guys have a lot to learn”
I did read what you wrote and I did not skim. I can only go by what you actually write, even if that may not be what you meant. You did write a series of comments criticizing environmentalists without putting them in context. If you wrote your comments with more care misunderstandings would be less likely. You even got my name wrong! Its Joseph not Joesph ;)
Like some other people who comment on RC I am quite familiar with the environmental movement both personally and professionally. I do have some to learn, but maybe not a lot. I do know this whole thread is way too off topic and this is my last comment.
Wmanny, nothing thin-skinned about it. You claim the consensus science is inconsistent in its claims–that it’s story is changing. This is a matter of science, and science is about evidence? Well, where’s your evidence? Science is not “fair and balanced”. The Heartland Institute’s recent NIPCC effort provides plenty of examples to back up what I say. Let’s make it easy. There are two sides here–the one with the evidence and the pudknockers. Choose.
“Nick (528), what I meant (and think I said, but maybe too convoluted) was that some deny that the green/environmental movement has ever produced destructive and stupid supporters” – Rod B.
[citation needed]
In fact, that’s not what you said – go over it again, unwinding all the negatives, and you’ll find you actually said all its supporters’ efforts are stupid or destructive. I guessed you probably didn’t mean that, but even now we’ve sorted out what you did mean, you need to show that what you meant to say is actually true.
“Then you did write him [Wegener] off as a “crank” (480) which is more like what I was contending.” – Rod B.
It wasn’t Wegener I was referring to as a crank – it was J. Marvin Herndon! I said: “an obvious crank, whose (non-peer-reviewed) “paper” lacks the calculations the author claims to have done, and has no references whatever”. How you managed to interpret that as referring to Wegener, I have no idea.
Rod B.,
In #471 I neither said nor implied anything about how polite or otherwise scientific controversy is. This is because I don’t think that this is fundamentally very important. What matters are the institutional systems of science, not the manners of scientists.
“the green movements are even more dangerous than the denialists at times.” – jcbmack@93
jcbmack, that’s what I called you on, you’ve failed to support it, refuse to withdraw it, and falsely accused me of misquoting you. I have not questioned your commitment to alternative energy or anything else. I have no more to say on this matter.
542 Pudnocker? OK, that did make me laugh, but I have no idea what it means, and I will assume you continue to see no problem with name-calling as a substitute for argument. I am clearly wasting my breath on that one, and there is no need for you to honor my debating biases in any case.
As to your admonition, “Choose,” it reminds me of the old hymn, “Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide.” If I believed as you do, I, too, would say we are at that moment, and I would insist on others choosing. But I don’t, so I won’t. I will keep reading, though, and try to keep an open mind despite your entreaty to close it.
wmanny,
If you were really interested in argument, you would have put some questions of substance forward by now. All we’ve had from you is the usual tiresome whining about denialists being called denialists.
Just curious, wmanny, how do you keep an open mind when you don’t understand the science? Hell, I’ve yet to see any evidence you are even interested in the science. You have this astounding resource, put together by experts in the field. You have people who will gladly answer any questions you ask…and you don’t ask. I would think that keeping an open mind would at least involve making a good faith effort to understand the science.
ReCAPTCHA thinks so, too: toast threat
Nick, one man’s tiresome whining is another’s objecting to a grossly offensive term, thinly disguised. That you have no problem with that sort of name-calling is your choice, but I am sure you understand why others might shy away from it.
And Ray, I am the first to admit I don’t understand the science. Neither do you, of course, or you would simply state it and go collect your Nobel Prize, this one for Physics, not Peace. I have asked plenty of questions, none of them here that I can recall, and I have done as much reading as could be expected of someone at my low level of expertise, including a chapter-by-chapter reading of the latest IPCC report, whence much of my current skepticism arises. I am open to the idea that the consensus is correct, and I am open to the idea that it may not be. I greatly respect your posts on the science, and I am at odds with your ascribing of straw horse arguments and ill motives to people who disagree with you, that’s all.
I have no idea what ReCAPTCHA or “toast threat” means, though I have a feeling I am about to find out. Sounds dangerous.
Re #538: “…although it is true that the commercially exploitable offshore wind energy resources of the northeast alone, or the wind energy resources of several midwestern states alone, are more than sufficient to provide all the electricity consumed in the USA.”
But again, only if you can store that energy economically enough to turn an inherently intermittent source into a reliable supply. And if you’re willing to live with the non-negligible environmental effects of tens of thousands of wind turbines – but of course, they’re probably not going to be in YOUR back yard :-)
“And we can harvest that energy on time scales that for human purposes amount to “forever”, with none of the toxic pollution and other dangers of fossil fuels or nuclear power.”
You’re doing the “mote in your brother’s eye” thing again: most of those technologies have fairly obvious environmental effects, which will only increase as they’re scaled up. Hydropower, for instance, has the longest track record at large scale, and has demonstrated negative effects ranging from loss of fish species to increased delta erosion due to lower sediment loads. Then there’s the risk of catastrophic failures. Solar thermal (for power generation rather than home heating) requires building over large areas of land, with consequent habitat destruction – but again, I suspect it’s not your neighborhood that’s going to be built over.
I’m not saying that most of these don’t have a place in a low-CO2 future, just that they’re not as cheap & trouble-free as some of their proponents apparently would like us to believe they are.