A number of spurious criticisms regarding the Mann et al (1998) proxy-based temperature reconstruction have been made by two individuals McIntyre and McKitrick ( McIntyre works in the mining industry, while McKitrick is an economist). These criticisms are contained in two manuscripts (McIntyre and McKitrick 2003 and 2004–the latter manuscript was rejected by Nature; both are collectively henceforth referred to as “MM”). MM claim that the main features of the Mann et al (1998–henceforth MBH98) reconstruction, including the “hockey stick” shape of the reconstruction, are artifacts of a) the centering convention used by MBH98 in their Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the North American International Tree Ring Data Bank (‘ITRDB’) data, b) the use of 4 infilled missing annual values (AD 1400-1403) in one tree-ring series (the ‘St. Anne’ Northern Treeline series), and c) the infilling of missing values in some proxy data between 1972 and 1980. Each of these claims are demonstrated to be false below. [Read more…] about False Claims by McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the Mann et al. (1998) reconstruction
Archives for décembre 2004
Refroidissement de l’Antarctique, réchauffement global ?
) par Eric Steig et Gavin Schmidt (traduit par Claire Rollion-Bard)
Les données de température à long terme de l’hémisphère sud sont difficiles à trouver, et au moment où vous accédez au continent Antarctique, les données sont extrêmement éparses. Néanmoins quelques tendances émergent des quelques données disponibles. La Péninsule Antarctique, lieu de la barrière de glace Larsen-B, maintenant disparue, s’est réchauffée substantiellement. D’un autre côté, les quelques stations sur le continent et à l’intérieur semblent s’être légèrement refroidies. (Doran et al., 2002 ; GISTEMP). Au premier coup d’œil, cela semble contradictoire avec l’idée de réchauffement “global”, mais on a besoin d’être prudent avant de sauter sur cette conclusion.
Quelle information sur le réchauffement climatique nous apportent les études qui concluent à un retard du CO2 sur la température, réalisées à partir des carottes de glace?
) Par Jeff Severinghaus (traduit par Nicolas Caillon)
Les résultats de ces études ne sont pas toujours bien compris par le public, souvent mal restitués par les médias, et méritent donc davantage d’explications. Au moins 3 études détaillées réalisées à partir de carottes de glace montrent que le CO2 commence à augmenter autour de 800 ans (entre 600 à 1000 ans) après le démarrage de l’augmentation de température lors des terminaisons glaciaires. Ces terminaisons sont les périodes de réchauffement qui marquent la fin des périodes glaciaires et qui se produisent tous les 100 000 ans.
Michaels misquotes Hansen
Pat Michaels (under the guise of the Greening Earth society) is particularly fond of misquoting Jim Hansen, director of the NASA GISS laboratory (and in the interests of full disclosure, GS’s boss).
Recently he claimed that Dr. Hansen has now come around to the ‘skeptics’ (i.e. Pat Michaels) way of thinking and suggests that they agree on the (small) amount of warming to be expected in the future. Michaels quotes Hansen from a 2001 PNAS paper:
Les scénarios des modèles climatiques
) Quelques commentateurs (Pat Michaels, Roy Spencer) ont récemment relancé une question au sujet des scénarios standard utilisés pour comparer les modèles climatiques, dans ce cas relié à une étude sur l’augmentation potentielle de l’activité des ouragans.
La plus grande incertitude dans ce qui va se passer pour le climat du futur (dans 30 ans ou plus) est le cours que va suivre l’économie globale et les changements technologiques qui peuvent l’accompagner. Puisque les climatologues n’ont certainement pas une boule de cristal, nous considérons généralement une gamme de scénarios ou de projections des émissions futures de CO 2 et d’autres forçages importants comme le méthane et les aérosols.
Index
In addition to the category indexing on the side bar, we have set out a more thematic index here to help you find your way through the content on the site. [Note: this was kept up-to-date through about 2008. For more recent articles, please use the search function.]
Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present-day observations, Oceans, Paleo-climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.
If you are looking for introductions to the whole topic, start here.
Aerosols:
- “Assombrissement global?“
- “Assombrissement Global II“
- “Liens entre Pollution et Climat“
- “Un avenir brillant pour l’assombrissement global ?“
- “Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings“
- “An Aerosol Tour de Forcing“
- “Global Dimming and climate models“
- “Current volcanic activity and climate?“
- “Aerosols: The Last Frontier?“
- “Ozone impacts on climate change“
- “Perspectives from China“
- “Global dimming and global warming“
- “Aerosols, Chemistry and Climate“
Arctic and Antarctic climate:
- “The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment“
- “The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment II“
- “The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment III“
- “Le printemps 2005 comptera-t-il parmi les mauvais pour l’ozone arctique ?“
- “2005 Record Arctic Ozone Loss“
- “Recul du Front des Glaciers de la Péninsule Antarctique au cours des 50 dernières années“
- “650 000 années de concentrations de gaz à effet de serre“
- “Polar Amplification“
- “The Greenland Ice“
- “How much future sea level rise? More evidence from models and ice sheet observations.“
- “Significant Warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere“
- “More on the Arctic“
- “Sea level in the Arctic“
- “Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue“
- “The Copenhagen Consensus“
- “Is Antarctic climate changing?“
- “Historical climatology in Greenland“
- “Ce n’est pas qu’une histoire d’albédo de la glace…“
- “Déclin de la banquise de l’Arctique au 21ème siècle“
- “Making sense of Greenland’s ice“
- “Arctic sea ice watch“
- “New rule for high profile papers“
- “Antarctica is Cold? Yeah, We Knew That“
- “Moulins, Calving Fronts and Greenland Outlet Glacier Acceleration“
- “North Pole notes“
- “Ice Shelf Instability“
- “North Pole notes (continued)“
- “How much will sea level rise?“
- “On straw men and Greenland: Tad Pfeffer Responds“
- “What links the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbrae, Wilkins Ice Shelf and the Petermann Glacier?“
Atmospheric Science:
- “Water vapour: feedback or forcing?“
- “Et Tu LT?“
- “The tropical lapse rate quandary“
- “Busy Week for Water Vapor“
- “More satellite stuff“
- “Naturally trendy?“
- “Cloudy outlook for albedo?“
- “On a Weakening of the Walker Circulation“
- “Le ciel nous tombe vraiment sur la tête“
- “On Mid-latitude Storms“
- “Uncertainty in polar ozone depletion?“
- “Tropical tropospheric trends“
- “Butterflies, tornadoes and climate modelling“
- “Tropical tropospheric trends again“
- “Tropical tropospheric trends again (again)“
- “Ozone holes and cosmic rays“
Climate modelling:
- “La modélisation climatique est-elle de la science?“
- “Planetary energy imbalance?“
- “Modeller vs. modeller“
- “Chaos and Climate“
- “Gaz à effet de serre et prédictions saisonnières“
- “Polar Amplification“
- “Climate Feedbacks“
- “Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted“
- “La physique de la modélisation du climat“
- “Hansen’s 1988 projections“
- “Why global climate models do not give a realistic description of the local climate“
- “Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast“
- “Musings about models“
- “The IPCC model simulation archive“
- ““Hell train station”“
- “What the IPCC models really say“
- “Global Cooling-Wanna Bet?“
- “The Global Cooling Bet – Part 2“
- “Hypothesis testing and long range memory“
- “FAQ on climate models“
Climate sensitivity:
- “11ºC de réchauffement, une crise climatique dans 10 ans ?“
- “Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings“
- “Natural Variability and Climate Sensitivity“
- “Richard Lindzen’s HoL testimony“
- “Climate sensitivity: Plus ça change…“
- “Runaway tipping points of no return“
- “Climate Feedbacks“
- “The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps“
- “Climate Insensitivity“
- “The certainty of uncertainty“
- “Target CO2“
- “Les question simples n’appellent pas toujours des réponses simples“
Extreme events:
- “Storms and Climate Change“
- “Storms & Global Warming II“
- “Ouragans et réchauffement global – existe t’il un lien ?“
- “On record-breaking events“
- “Reactions to tighter hurricane intensity/SST link“
- “Tropical Cyclones workshop“
- “Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming“
- “NOAA: Hurricane forecasts“
- “Amazonian drought“
- “Fact, Fiction, and Friction in the Hurricane Debate“
- “Tropical SSTs: Natural variations or Global warming?“
- “On Mid-latitude Storms“
- “El Nino, Global Warming, and Anomalous U.S. Winter Warmth“
- “Hurricane Spin“
- “Storm World: A Review“
- “Tropical cyclone history – part I: How reliable are past hurricane records?“
- “Tropical cyclone history – part II: Paleotempestology still in its infancy“
- “Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones (Yet Again)“
Global warming:
- “Imprecision of the Phrase “Global Warming”“
- “Réchauffement récent anormal en Europe“
- “Les températures globales encore en hausse“
- “Mise à Jour sur les températures 2005“
- “Températures 2005“
- “Réchauffement global sur Mars ?“
- “Perte d’ozone et réchauffement climatique“
- “Pendant combien de temps le réchauffement global persistera-t-il ?“
- “Betting on climate change“
- “Recul mondial des glaciers“
- “Voici pourquoi rechercher le réchauffement global dans les océans est pertinent“
- “Planetary energy imbalance?“
- “Tropical Glacier Retreat“
- “Réchauffement global sur Terre ?“
- “Q & A: Global Warming“
- “Methane hydrates and global warming“
- “Un réchauffement de 2°C peut-il être évité?“
- “Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming“
- “El Niño and Global Warming“
- “Geo-engineering in vogue…“
- “‘The Discovery of Global Warming’ update“
- “Attribution of 20th Century climate change to CO2“
- “How much CO2 emission is too much?“
- “No man is an (Urban Heat) Island“
- “1934 and all that“
- “Friday roundup“
- “Six Degrees“
Greenhouse gases:
- “Quelle information sur le réchauffement climatique nous apportent les études qui concluent à un retard du CO2 sur la température, réalisées à partir des carottes de glace?“
- “Comment savons-nous que l’augmentation récente du CO2 est due aux activités humaines ? (mise-à-jour)“
- “CO2 Fertilization“
- “Water vapour: feedback or forcing?“
- “The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission“
- “Busy Week for Water Vapor“
- “650 000 années de concentrations de gaz à effet de serre“
- “Methane hydrates and global warming“
- “Calculating the greenhouse effect“
- “Methane hydrates and global warming“
- “Une surprise pour les scientifiques !“
- “Kristof on the Apocalypse“
- “Positive feedbacks from the carbon cycle“
- “Buying a stairway to heaven?“
- “Rasslin’ swamp gas“
- “How much CO2 emission is too much?“
- “Le ciel nous tombe vraiment sur la tête“
- “Learning from a simple model“
- “The lag between temperature and CO2. (Gore’s got it right.)“
- “Beck to the future“
- “Thin Soup and a Thin Story“
- “Part II: What Ångström didn’t know“
- “A Saturated Gassy Argument“
- “The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps“
- “My model, used for deception“
- “CO2 equivalents“
- “Is the ocean carbon sink sinking?“
- “Hot off the projector #3: Atmospheric CO2 to 800 kyr ago“
- “Venus Unveiled“
- “CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas, and greenhouse effects are not the only CO2 problem“
Mitigation of Climate Change:
- “Geo-engineering in vogue…“
- “Air Capture“
- “Climate change methadone?“
- “Qu’est-ce qui réduit le plus les émissions?“
- “Tropical tropospheric trends again (again)“
Oceans:
- “Est-ce que le Gulf Stream ralentit ?“
- “Plus salé ou pas ?“
- “Ralentissement de la circulation Atlantique?“
- “The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission“
- “Changement de la circulation Atlantique – Résumé“
- “El Niño and Global Warming“
- “Ocean heat content: latest numbers“
- “Why greenhouse gases heat the ocean“
- “Tropical SSTs: Natural variations or Global warming?“
- “Carl Wunsch, The Economist and the Gulf Stream“
- “Ocean Circulation: New evidence (Yes), slowdown (No)“
- “Revealed: Secrets of Abrupt Climate Shifts“
- “A Linkage Between the LIA and Gulf Stream?“
- “The IPCC sea level numbers“
- “L’océan se refroidit. Pas.“
- “Thin Soup and a Thin Story“
- “Who ya gonna call?“
- “Of buckets and blogs“
- “Ocean heat content revisions“
Paleo-climate:
- “Variations de température sur les derniers siècles et la "crosse de hockey"“
- “False Claims by McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the Mann et al. (1998) reconstruction“
- “Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"“
- “Ne faisait-il pas plus chaud au Moyen-Age, pendant “l’Optimum climatique”, que maintenant?“
- “Sommes nous sûrs qu’il faisait plus chaud il y a 6000 ans ?“
- “On Yet Another False Claim by McIntyre and McKitrick“
- “Et si …. la “Crosse de Hockey” était fausse ?“
- “Guide pratique pour comprendre la dernière controverse sur la « crosse de hockey »“
- “Moberg et coll. : une plus grande variabilité climatique passée dans l’Hémisphere Nord ?“
- ““New Analysis Reproduces Graph of Late 20th Century Temperature Rise”“
- “Hockey sticks: Round 27“
- “Debate over the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis“
- “A New Take on an Old Millennium“
- “Sir Nicholas Shackleton“
- “A Mistake with Repercussions“
- “Art and climate“
- “Addendum to “A Mistake with Repercussions”“
- “How Red are my Proxies?“
- “National Academies Synthesis Report“
- “Medieval warmth and English wine“
- “The missing piece at the Wegman hearing“
- “Followup to the ‘Hockeystick’ Hearings“
- “Revealed: Secrets of Abrupt Climate Shifts“
- “Broadly Misleading“
- “A Linkage Between the LIA and Gulf Stream?“
- “When the mites go up…“
- “Qu’est ce qui déclenche les glaciations?“
- “Cold Case vs. CSI“
- “The lag between temperature and CO2. (Gore’s got it right.)“
- “The weirdest millennium“
- “Curve manipulation: lesson 2“
- “Younger Dry-as dust?“
- “Past reconstructions: problems, pitfalls and progress“
- “The debate is just beginning — on the Cretaceous!“
- “Tropical cyclone history – part I: How reliable are past hurricane records?“
- “Tropical cyclone history – part II: Paleotempestology still in its infancy“
- “536 AD and all that“
- “Progress in reconstructing climate in recent millennia“
Present-day observations:
- “Et Tu LT?“
- “The tropical lapse rate quandary“
- “Est-ce que le Gulf Stream ralentit ?“
- “What is a first-order climate forcing?“
- “The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island“
- “Groundhog Day“
- “Cloudy outlook for albedo?“
- “More on the Arctic“
- “Historical climatology in Greenland“
- “Has Pacific Northwest snowpack declined? Yes.“
- “Glacier Mass Balance: equilibrium or disequilibrium response?“
- “No man is an (Urban Heat) Island“
- “1934 and all that“
- “Sweatin’ the Mediterranean Heat“
- “Are Temperature Trends affected by Economic Activity (II)?“
- “A barrier to understanding?“
- “Uncertainty, noise and the art of model-data comparison“
- “Model-data-comparison, Lesson 2“
- “Global trends and ENSO“
- “Mind the Gap!“
- “Mountains and molehills“
- “2008 temperature summaries and spin“
Projections of future climate:
- “Les scénarios des modèles climatiques“
- “Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate“
- “Lawson vs. the IPCC“
- “Un réchauffement de 2°C peut-il être évité?“
- “James Lovelock’s Gloomy Vision“
- “Kristof on the Apocalypse“
- “La science de Stern“
- “Hansen’s 1988 projections“
- “Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast“
- “Regional Climate Projections“
- “The Forecast in the Streets“
- ““Hell train station”“
Responses to common contrarian arguments:
- “Michaels misquotes Hansen“
- “Refroidissement de l’Antarctique, réchauffement global ?“
- “Quelle information sur le réchauffement climatique nous apportent les études qui concluent à un retard du CO2 sur la température, réalisées à partir des carottes de glace?“
- “Are Temperature Trends affected by Economic Activity?“
- “Fox News gets it wrong“
- “L’état de confusion de Michael Crichton“
- “Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion II: Return of the Science“
- “Climate Change Disinformation“
- “Will-full ignorance“
- “George Will-misled and misleading“
- “Le mythe du refroidissement global“
- “En Etrange Compagnie“
- “Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"“
- “Et si …. la “Crosse de Hockey” était fausse ?“
- “Water vapour: feedback or forcing?“
- “L’accroissement du CO2 atmosphérique: sommes nous entièrement responsable?“
- “Inhofe and Crichton: Together at Last!“
- “How to be a real sceptic“
- “The Wall Street Journal vs. The Scientific Consensus“
- “Senator Inhofe on Climate Change“
- “CO2 Fertilization“
- “Calculating the greenhouse effect“
- “Good climate debate FAQ“
- “Bush on “The Fundamental Debate”“
- “Incurious George“
- “Heat Rising at the Washington Post“
- “Open Thread on Lindzen Op-Ed in WSJ“
- “Lindzen: point by point“
- “Thank you for emitting“
- “Global cooling, again“
- “La Science Coucou“
- “English vineyards again….“
- “Avery and Singer: Unstoppable hot air“
- “Inhofe’s last stand“
- “Swindled!“
- “Swindled: Carl Wunsch responds“
- “Does a Global Temperature Exist?“
- “Lindzen in Newsweek“
- “The lag between temperature and CO2. (Gore’s got it right.)“
- “Beck to the future“
- “The weirdest millennium“
- “Curve manipulation: lesson 2“
- “Oregon Institute of Science and Malarkey“
- “BBC contrarian top 10“
- “Les Chevaliers de l’Ordre de la Terre Plate, Part I: Allègre and Courtillot“
- “Les Chevaliers de l’Ordre de la Terre Plate, Part II: Courtillot’s Geomagnetic Excursion“
- “The global cooling mole“
- “Impressions from the European Geophysical Union conference 2008“
- “Freeman Dyson’s selective vision“
- “Once more unto the bray“
- “Not the IPCC (“NIPCC”) Report“
Scientific Practice:
- “Analyse statistique du consensus“
- “En quoi consiste le “Consensus” ?“
- “Conférence d’Exeter (G-B): éviter un changement climatique dangereux“
- “La modélisation climatique est-elle de la science?“
- “IPCC in action: Part I“
- “IPCC in action: Part II“
- “Evaluation par des pairs : une condition nécessaire mais pas suffisante“
- “Peer Review: A Necessary But Not Sufficient Condition II“
- “Lawson vs. the IPCC“
- “How to be a real sceptic“
- “Hansen in the New York Times“
- “Happy Birthday, Charles Darwin!“
- “A Mistake with Repercussions“
- “How not to write a press release“
- “Communicating Science & Technology“
- “The Copenhagen Consensus“
- “Nature’s press advisories“
- “Chinese whispers in Australia“
- “AGU, AAPG and AMQUA“
- “Supreme Court Amicus Curiae from scientists“
- “Further comment on the Supreme Court briefs“
- “Fall AGU“
- “AGU Hangover“
- “Le Quatrième Rapport d’Evaluation du GIEC – Résumé à l’intention des décideurs“
- “Fraser Institute fires off a damp squib“
- “Ozone Hole Leaks and Other Tales“
- “Full IPCC AR4 report now available“
- “Transparency of the IPCC process“
- “Perspectives from China“
- “Spanish perspectives“
- “What if you held a conference, and no (real) scientists came?“
- “Blogs and peer-review“
- “Bridging the divides“
- “Are geologists different?“
- “A new survey of scientists“
- “Greenspan, Einstein et Reich“
- “Contrarians and consensus: The case of the midwife toad“
Solar forcing:
- “Recent Warming But No Trend in Galactic Cosmic Rays“
- “A critique on Veizer’s Celestial Climate Driver“
- “The lure of solar forcing“
- “Did the Sun hit record highs over the last few decades?“
- “Another study on solar influence“
- “The trouble with sunspots“
- “How not to attribute climate change“
- “Taking Cosmic Rays for a spin“
- “Nigel Calder in the Times“
- “‘Cosmoclimatology’ – tired old arguments in new clothes“
- “Cosmic rays don’t die so easily“
Climate in the Media:
- “The False Objectivity of “Balance”“
- “Getting the balance right…“
- “Le film de Al Gore“
- “Disinformation? You want it, IREA’s got it“
- “Peter Doran and how misleading talking points propagate“
- “The missing repertoire“
- “Sachs’ WSJ Challenge“
- “Consensus as the New Heresy“
- “The Human Hand in Climate Change“
- “WSJ Editorial Board: Head Still Buried in the Sand“
- “Climate Reporting in Physics World“
- “Broad Irony“
- “A Tale of Three Interviews“
- “Cockburn’s form“
- “Global Warming Delusions at the Wall Street Journal“
- “A phenomenological sequel“
- “Find the error“
- “A day when Hell was frozen“
- “Wired Magazine’s Incoherent Truths“
- “More PR related confusion“
- “Journalistic whiplash“
- “Palin on Global Warming“
- “Why don’t op-eds get fact checked?“
Meeting Reports:
- “Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #1“
- “Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #2“
- “Hot off the projector #3: Atmospheric CO2 to 800 kyr ago“
- “Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #4“
- “Notes from The Gathering #5: Arctic sea ice: is it tipped yet?“
- “Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #6“
- “Rolling up the circus tent: Dispatch #7“
- “Impressions from the European Geophysical Union conference 2008“
- “Field notes from a Nature Conservancy meeting“
Miscellaneous:
- “Bienvenue à RealClimate“
- “Mise au point“
- “RealClimate In the News“
- “Doubts about the Advent of Spring“
- “Scientists respond to Barton“
- “Framing of climate science“
- “Books books books“
- “One year on…“
- “Hansen in the New York Times“
- “Those pesky scientific facts…“
- “Meteors, Nuclear Tests and Global Warming“
- “Pielke père et fils in Nature“
- “Washington Post Cartoon“
- “IPCC draft: No comment.“
- “MY Review of Books“
- “Introducing RC forum“
- “It’s different in Europe“
- “The Copenhagen Consensus“
- “New public opinion poll on global warming“
- “New Google search function“
- “Revue de l’année 2006“
- “Calling All Science Teachers“
- “Sauvez la planète ! Gagnez 25 millions de dollars !“
- “Global Warming debate“
- “Adventures on the East Side“
- “The Sheep Albedo Feedback“
- “Fun with correlations!“
- “A bit of philosophy“
- “G8 summit declaration“
- “Convenient Untruths“
- “The “Have you stopped beating your wife yet (yes/no)” questionnaire“
- “Sustainability: A Nobel Cause“
- “Did we call it or what“
- “Books ’07“
- “Our Books“
- “Comprehensive climate glossary“
- “Books ’08“
- “2008 Year in review“
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A propos
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